Strategische Erfolgsanalyse

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Which Are The Main Drivers Behind Residential Electricity Prices?

Over the last decade the residential electricity price in most EU Member States has been increasing. Even after the introduction of significant reforms such as the liberalisation of the electricity market. This upward trend is in response to the development of different price components along the electricity supply chain. In order to identify and analyse these components for EU-Member States, a more detailed price apportionment than those offered by public sources like Eurostat and IEA is necessary. The methodology proposed in this study analyses the development of the residential electricity price and its main components between 2002 and 2012 for Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. The main drivers of the price trends observed for these four countries are subsequently identified, quantified and compared. Furthermore, the residential expenditure on electricity in each country is examined in connection with the evolution of residential electricity consumption. The results show how and to what extent the residential electricity price for the selected EU Member States depends on price components such as the electricity wholesale price, the gross margin, network expenditures, energy taxes and other levies related to the decarbonisation of the national energy system. Furthermore, this detailed analysis of residential electricity prices throughout the last decade provides a sufficient data basis to draw some prospective conclusions in terms of a short-term price outlook.     

When U.S. venture capital ventures abroad

Older, more experienced and smaller U.S. venture capital firms are most probable to sacrifice proximate distance for new opportunities in foreign, and mostly mature, portfolio companies. These companies are treated differently than the domestic ones, as U.S. venture capital firms collaborate with and delegate monitoring to foreign partners, rather than stage or syndicate. Successful outcomes mostly occur in more mature, non‐hi‐tech, portfolio companies that receive more financing per round. Our results are robust to the investee country's openness and industry classification, stage of the investment and possible sample selection problems.     

Poverty,income distribution and child welfare in Latin America: A comparison of pre- and post-recession data

The traditional and external dependency of most Latin American economies and their recent pattern of growth has made them particularly vulnerable to the unexpected and severe changes of the world economy that began in 1979–1980. Even those countries with less open economies have been forced to seek adjustments to the new world situation that are, both in nature and consequences, essentially different from those of the interdependent industrial economies.This paper attempts to evaluate the impact of these recent economic changes on the living conditions of the populations of Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Panama and Venezuela. It is based on household data and is limited to those aspects of household living conditions that can be observed through the variables included in labour surveys. It analyses changes in overall income distribution, the movement of different socio-economic groups within the income pyramid and changes in these groups' livelihood strategies.     

Spatial equilibrium with locational interdependencies: The case of environmental spillovers

This paper extends the standard model of urban land rent to include locational interdependencies. It is shown that there exists a unique rent function that clears the urban land market in the presence of direct physical interaction among different sites, i.e., environmental spillovers.     

CORPORATE OPERATING PERFORMANCE AROUND THE PROXY CONTEST

By comparing the operating performance (ROE) between a group of firms with proxy contests for control and a matching group of no-contest firms, this study concludes that contest firms generally underperformed matching firms in both pre- and post-contest periods. Lower profit margins of contest firms appear to be the major cause of underperformance. Results are different when proxy contest companies are segregated into successful and unsuccessful contest groups. Firms in which dissidents succeeded in gaining control were characterized by underperformance in the pre-contest period and improved performance in the post-contest period. The improvement seems to be due to more efficient management of the profit margin. The performance of firms in which dissidents failed, however, was close to that of the matching group in the pre-contest period but deteriorated in the post-contest period.     

Spatial equilibrium with local public goods: Urban land rent,optimal city size and the Tiebout hypothesis

This paper extends the standard model of urban land rent to consider the spatial equilibrium conditions in a local public goods market as hypothesized by Charles M. Tiebout. An analysis is made of the spatial dimensions of public goods, their degree of ‘localness’ and their impact on land values. It is shown that the optimal population size of the community (Tiebout's sixth assumption) is simultaneously derived with the optimal supply of local public goods and local taxes. It is also shown that land rent is a poor output indicator of Tiebout's equilibrium conditions and that the capitalization assumption is not the appropriate test for his hypothesis.     

Tax on emissions or subsidy to renewables? Evaluating the effects on the economy and on the environment

We examine the relationship between the economy and the environment in a model where production uses nonpolluting renewable and polluting nonrenewable resources. There is policy intervention through a tax on emissions and a subsidy to renewables extraction/production. Results show that both instruments are able to decrease emissions intensity of output. However, when used together, the desired effect is higher. Empirically it is shown that the subsidy achieves higher renewables intensity and although present emissions per output are similar for both instruments, the subsidy achieves lower future levels.     

Combination forecasts of tourism demand with machine learning models

The main objective of this study is to analyse whether the combination of regional predictions generated with machine learning (ML) models leads to improved forecast accuracy. With this aim, we construct one set of forecasts by estimating models on the aggregate series, another set by using the same models to forecast the individual series prior to aggregation, and then we compare the accuracy of both approaches. We use three ML techniques: support vector regression, Gaussian process regression and neural network models. We use an autoregressive moving average model as a benchmark. We find that ML methods improve their forecasting performance with respect to the benchmark as forecast horizons increase, suggesting the suitability of these techniques for mid- and long-term forecasting. In spite of the fact that the disaggregated approach yields more accurate predictions, the improvement over the benchmark occurs for shorter forecast horizons with the direct approach.