Spatial modelling of claim frequency and claim size in non-life insurance

In this paper, models for claim frequency and average claim size in non-life insurance are considered. Both covariates and spatial random effects are included allowing the modelling of a spatial dependency pattern. We assume a Poisson model for the number of claims, while claim size is modelled using a Gamma distribution. However, in contrast to the usual compound Poisson model, we allow for dependencies between claim size and claim frequency. A fully Bayesian approach is followed, parameters are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The issue of model comparison is thoroughly addressed. Besides the deviance information criterion and the predictive model choice criterion, we suggest the use of proper scoring rules based on the posterior predictive distribution for comparing models. We give an application to a comprehensive data set from a German car insurance company. The inclusion of spatial effects significantly improves the models for both claim frequency and claim size, and also leads to more accurate predictions of the total claim sizes. Further, we detect significant dependencies between the number of claims and claim size. Both spatial and number of claims effects are interpreted and quantified from an actuarial point of view.     

Global financial conditions,country spreads and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries

This paper uses a panel structural vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the extent to which global financial conditions, i.e., a global risk-free interest rate and global financial risk, and country spreads contribute to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging countries. The main findings are: (1) global financial risk shocks explain about 20% of movements both in the country spread and in the aggregate activity in emerging economies. (2) The contribution of global risk-free interest rate shocks to macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging economies is negligible. Its role, which was emphasized in the literature, is taken up by global financial risk shocks. (3) Country spread shocks explain about 15 percent of the business cycles in emerging economies. (4) Interdependence between economic activity and the country spread is a key mechanism through which global financial shocks are transmitted to emerging economies.     

Managing uncertainty in on-demand air travel

Fractional management companies (FMCs) that provide on-demand air travel services experience frequent changes in aircraft availability and flight requests. We propose scheduling heuristics which are both cost-effective and persistent (i.e., close to the original schedule) to address the uncertainty. The heuristics include pro-actively enforcing idleness of aircraft in creating the original schedule, strategically repositioning aircraft to serve yet-unknown demand and dense scheduling. Computational experiments are conducted in a simulator that mimics FMCs’ daily operations. Simulation results quantify the value of each heuristic, which can be easily incorporated into existing computational methods used in FMCs for static scheduling problems.     

The more contagion effect on emerging markets: The evidence of DCC-GARCH model

The paper aims to test the existence of financial contagion between foreign exchange markets of several emerging and developed countries during the U.S. subprime crisis. As a result of DCC-GARCH analysis, we find the evidence of contagion during U.S. subprime crisis for most of the developed and emerging countries. Another finding is that emerging markets seem to be the most influenced by the contagion effects during U.S. subprime crisis. Since financial contagion is important for monetary policy, risk measurement, asset pricing and portfolio allocation, the findings of paper may be interest of policy makers, investors and portfolio managers.     

Globalization and the Inequality–Unemployment Tradeoff

Over the last 20 years, advanced economies have experienced an “unemployment versus inequality” tradeoff that is critically uneven across countries. To explain this, we propose an extended HOS model in which: the factors are skilled and unskilled labor; there is a continuum of goods; the world comprises two North countries (one egalitarian and one nonegalitarian) and the South; there is no factor price equalization; globalization consists in the South cornering a growing share of world production. In the North, globalization entails an inequality–unemployment tradeoff and the adjustment to globalization is more painful for the country that was initially inequality‐oriented.     

Optimal portfolio choice in real terms: Measuring the benefits of TIPS

In this paper we solve an optimal portfolio choice problem to measure the benefits of Treasury Inflation Indexed Securities (TIPS) to investors concerned with maximizing real wealth. We show how the introduction of a real riskless asset completes the investor asset space, by contrasting optimal portfolio allocations with and without such assets. We use historical data to quantify gains from availability of TIPS in the presence of other asset classes such as equities, commodities, and real estate. We draw a distinction between buy-and-hold long-term investors for whom TIPS fully displace nominal risk-free assets and short-term investors for whom TIPS improve the investment opportunity set of real returns. Finally, we show how gains from TIPS are tempered by the availability of alternative assets that covary with inflation, such as gold and real estate.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models

We develop and implement a method for maximum likelihood estimation in closed-form of stochastic volatility models. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compare a full likelihood procedure, where an option price is inverted into the unobservable volatility state, to an approximate likelihood procedure where the volatility state is replaced by proxies based on the implied volatility of a short-dated at-the-money option. The approximation results in a small loss of accuracy relative to the standard errors due to sampling noise. We apply this method to market prices of index options for several stochastic volatility models, and compare the characteristics of the estimated models. The evidence for a general CEV model, which nests both the affine Heston model and a GARCH model, suggests that the elasticity of variance of volatility lies between that assumed by the two nested models.     

Quality perceptions under evolving information conditions: Implications for diet,health and consumer satisfaction

Consumers’ perception of, and satisfaction with, fruit quality is an important issue for both public policy and commercial reasons. However, because of information problems, consumers cannot easily choose fruits of a quality most likely to satisfy their preferences and health needs. The research reported here employed an experimental auction method to test perceptions of fruit quality by evaluating the willingness to pay (WTP) of consumers for five different varieties of soft citrus under three different information conditions: visual inspection of the fruit before peeling; visual inspection after peeling; and after consumption. Significant differences were found in valuations of the different varieties as consumers gained information. Conclusions are drawn about the value of the methodology and the results themselves, and implications are inferred for policy and for growers and traders. It is argued that product information should be oriented not just towards nutritional education but also towards increasing the pleasure of healthy eating.     

Who are these people? Personality traits and judgments about trade secret misappropriation in post‐employment activities

Trade secret theft is a problem that almost all organizations face. The greatest threat is employee mobility and potential unethical post‐employment behavior. This study investigates the role of individual personality traits in judgments about trade secret misappropriation. Our hypotheses were tested in three studies addressing three different situational contexts: current employees, employees about to be laid off, and students who had quit their job. Relationships were estimated with robust regression. The results show that some personality traits predict judgment about another person's trade secret misappropriation, and that the situational context in which individuals formulate their ethical judgment moderates the impact of personality traits on ethical judgment.