Amalgamations of universities:are there economics of scale or scope?

This paper estimates a multiple-output cost function for Australian universities. The estimates are used to evaluate the cost savings arising from the amalgamation of two or more institutions. These cost savings in turn are decomposed into those due to economics of scale and those due to economics of scope, using a new measure of economics of scope associated with the amalgamation of two institutions.     

The determinants of investment in Greek manufacturing

An attempt is made to provide some insight into the determinants of manufaturing investment in Greece. For this purpose an accelerator-relative costs-profits model is used and both the putty-putty and putty-clay versions are examined. Estimates reveal that demand and profits factors play an important role in investment decision while the impact of relative inputs cost is significant mainly in the short run. Window regression experiments show that there is a dramatic fall in profits elasticity of investment and a corresponding increase in the significance of demend factor in the later periods.     

Oil shocks and the dynamics of substitution adjustments of industrial fuels in the US

This paper investigates substitution among such alternate fuels as coal, natural gas, and electricity during the actual oil price increases of 1970s. These substitution adjustments are assumed to be dynamic and modelled by a partial adjustment structure. This dynamic structure is incorporated into a translog cost technology. Short- and long-run price elasticities are estimated by identifying inter- and intra-industry variations. The models are estimated with a sample of 88 pooled observations, including distillate and residual oils purchased by eleven 2-digit manufacturing groups (1974-81). Models are estimates are strictly negative. These own price elasticities range from (long-to short-run) –2.93 to –2.55 for distillate oil, –0.698 to – 1.53 for residual oil, –0.533 to 0.011 for coal, –0.235 to –0.213 for natural gas, to –0.888 to –0.845 for electricity. Estimastes of both short-run and long-run cross-price elasticities suggest that coal and electric energy are the prominent substitutes for fuel oils. While the relationship between the latter and natural gas remains largely complementary.     

Cointegration analysis and the UK demand for nitrogen fertilizer

Nitrogen fertilizer taxes have been proposed as a means of controlling agricultural ‘over-production’ and nitrate pollution of water courses in the EC. This paper constructs time-series models of fertilizer demand which provide quantitative information relevant to this issue. Time-series data on the use of nitrogen fertilizer in UK agriculture is found to have a unit root with non-zero drift coupled with a one-time change in drift after testing against the alternative hypothesis that the process is trend-stationary with a break in trend. The stochastic component of the nitrogen use series is cointegrated with the ratio of the price of nitrogen fertilizer to the price of agricultural output. Appropriate error correction models are estimated. Both the short-run and long-run price elasticities of the response of nitrogen use are found to be rather low. Some brief policy conclusions are drawn.     

Speculative bubbles in the ff/DM parity during the 1980s

It is often argued that exchanged rates volatility during the 1980s was too excessive to be attributed only to market fundamentals. This paper investigates for speculative bubles in the franc–mark exchange rate applying direct tests for determinate bubbles and indirect ones(according to the issues of integration and cointegration)for stochastic bubbles, in the context of a sticky price monetary model. No clear-cut conclusions can be drawn from these tests although all of them indicate that the no-bubble hypothesis cannot be easily accepted. However, any evidence for bubbles should be interpreted with caution, since a possible misspecification of the model may produce misleading inferences.     

Price and quality components of imports of food products into the UK

This paper analyses the principal factors responsible for the growth in the value of imports of the UK food sector, during the period 1985-90. On the basis of estimates of translog multilateral price indices it assesses the relative contribution of changes in the quality of imported products and factors other than quality to growth in import values of food products. The main conclusion is that growth in quality appears to be the principal reason for the growth in unit values of imports and the trade deficit incurred by the food manufacturing sector.     

The nonlinear time series properties of unemployment rates: some further evidence

The time series properties of unemployment rates for Germany, Japan, the UK and the US are re-examined. Evidence of nonlinear structure in the residuals of the most parsimonious linear ARMA models is reported for all countries except Japan. Modelling this nonlinearity using SETAR models suggests strong asymmetry in unemployment dynamics and the presence of a possible limit cycle for the UK. However, residual diagnostics for these models indicate remaining structure. Alternative TAR models conditioned on past growth rates of industrial production yield substantial reductions in residual variance over both linear and SETAR counterparts, iid residuals in all cases other than the US, and threshold values at or very near zero, clearly identifying the asymmetric behaviour of unemployment during expansionary and contractionary phases of the business cycle.     

The UK demand for steel

The paper suggests a short-run model of the demand for steel that may be used for forecasting future trends. The paper commences with consideration of a long-run model which is estimated using cointegration analysis. An error correction model is then developed to depict the short-run movements to equilibrium. This can be used for the purpose of ex-post forecasting.