Progress, decline, growth: product and productivity in Italian agriculture, 1000–2000

This article estimates agricultural production and output per worker in Italy, from about the year 1000 to the present. The millennium may be divided neatly into three periods. Output per worker increased until the fourteenth century, declined, with some fluctuations, until the end of the nineteenth century, and then recovered, booming in the past 50 years.     

The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach

The empirical literature on the transmission of international shocks is based on small -scale VARs. In this paper, we use a large panel of data for 17 industrialized countries to investigate the international transmission mechanism, and revisit the anomalies that arise in the empirical literature. We propose a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) that extends the model in Bernanke, Boivin, and Eliasz (2005) to the open economy. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, the dynamic effects on the UK economy of an unanticipated fall of short-term interest rates in the rest of the world are: real house price inflation, investment, GDP and consumption growth peak after 1 year, wages peak after 2 years, and CPI and GDP deflator inflation peak during the third year. Second, a positive international supply shock makes the distribution of the components of the UK consumption deflator negatively skewed. Third, in response to a domestic monetary shock, we find little evidence of the exchange rate and liquidity puzzles and little evidence of the forward discount and price anomalies.     

Uncertainty,Financial Frictions,and Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation

Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro‐uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (micro‐uncertainty) in a financial accelerator dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sticky prices. It explores the different mechanisms through which uncertainty shocks are propagated and amplified. The time‐series properties of macro‐ and micro‐uncertainty are estimated using U.S. aggregate and firm‐level data, respectively. While surprise increases in micro‐uncertainty have a larger impact on total output than macro‐uncertainty, these can only account for a small (but nontrivial) share of output volatility.     

MODELS OF PUBLIC–PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS FOR THE PROVISION OF GOODS

Beside the traditional public–private dichotomy for the provision of public services, an increasing attention has been devoted to the use of public–private partnerships (PPPs). This paper compares relative inefficiencies of public provision, traditional private provision and PPPs as found in real cases, in the literature and through original theoretical models.     

Investment Bank Reputation,Information Production,and Financial Intermediation

We model reputation acquisition by investment banks in the equity market. Entrepreneurs sell shares in an asymmetrically informed equity market, either directly, or using an investment bank. Investment banks, who interact repeatedly with the equity market, evaluate entrepreneurs' projects and report to investors, in return for a fee. Setting strict evaluation standards (unobservable to investors) is costly for investment banks, inducing moral hazard. Investment banks' credibility therefore depends on their equity-marketing history. Investment banks' evaluation standards, their reputations, underwriter compensation, the market value of equity sold, and entrepreneurs' choice between underwritten and nonunderwritten equity issues emerge endogenously.     

Who Are the Value and Growth Investors?

This paper investigates value and growth investing in a large administrative panel of Swedish residents. We show that, over the life cycle, households progressively shift from growth to value as they become older and their balance sheets improve. Furthermore, investors with high human capital and high exposure to macroeconomic risk tilt their portfolios away from value. While several behavioral biases seem evident in the data, the patterns we uncover are overall remarkably consistent with the portfolio implications of risk‐based theories of the value premium.     

Corporate Debt,Hybrid Securities,and the Effective Tax Rate

Effective tax rates (ETRs) are useful tools to make comparisons between different tax systems. However, the existing ETR measures are based on rather simplifying assumptions. In particular, they disregard the existence of different kinds of debt and hybrid securities. In this paper, we use contingent‐claim analysis to calculate the ETR. We will therefore deal with both pure debt and two of the most well‐known hybrid securities, that is, convertible and reverse convertible bonds. We will show that effective taxation crucially depends on the characteristics of debt and that the existing measures of ETR can be dramatically biased, since they account neither for default risk nor for the ability to convert debt into equity.     

Debt Specialization

This paper examines debt structure using a new and comprehensive database on types of debt employed by public U.S. firms. We find that 85% of the sample firms borrow predominantly with one type of debt, and the degree of debt specialization varies widely across different subsamples—large rated firms tend to diversify across multiple debt types, while small unrated firms specialize in fewer types. We suggest several explanations for why debt specialization takes place, and show that firms employing few types of debt have higher bankruptcy costs, are more opaque, and lack access to some segments of the debt markets.