The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach

The empirical literature on the transmission of international shocks is based on small -scale VARs. In this paper, we use a large panel of data for 17 industrialized countries to investigate the international transmission mechanism, and revisit the anomalies that arise in the empirical literature. We propose a factor augmented VAR (FAVAR) that extends the model in Bernanke, Boivin, and Eliasz (2005) to the open economy. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, the dynamic effects on the UK economy of an unanticipated fall of short-term interest rates in the rest of the world are: real house price inflation, investment, GDP and consumption growth peak after 1 year, wages peak after 2 years, and CPI and GDP deflator inflation peak during the third year. Second, a positive international supply shock makes the distribution of the components of the UK consumption deflator negatively skewed. Third, in response to a domestic monetary shock, we find little evidence of the exchange rate and liquidity puzzles and little evidence of the forward discount and price anomalies.     

Who Are the Value and Growth Investors?

This paper investigates value and growth investing in a large administrative panel of Swedish residents. We show that, over the life cycle, households progressively shift from growth to value as they become older and their balance sheets improve. Furthermore, investors with high human capital and high exposure to macroeconomic risk tilt their portfolios away from value. While several behavioral biases seem evident in the data, the patterns we uncover are overall remarkably consistent with the portfolio implications of risk‐based theories of the value premium.     

Progress, decline, growth: product and productivity in Italian agriculture, 1000–2000

This article estimates agricultural production and output per worker in Italy, from about the year 1000 to the present. The millennium may be divided neatly into three periods. Output per worker increased until the fourteenth century, declined, with some fluctuations, until the end of the nineteenth century, and then recovered, booming in the past 50 years.     

Investment Bank Reputation,Information Production,and Financial Intermediation

We model reputation acquisition by investment banks in the equity market. Entrepreneurs sell shares in an asymmetrically informed equity market, either directly, or using an investment bank. Investment banks, who interact repeatedly with the equity market, evaluate entrepreneurs' projects and report to investors, in return for a fee. Setting strict evaluation standards (unobservable to investors) is costly for investment banks, inducing moral hazard. Investment banks' credibility therefore depends on their equity-marketing history. Investment banks' evaluation standards, their reputations, underwriter compensation, the market value of equity sold, and entrepreneurs' choice between underwritten and nonunderwritten equity issues emerge endogenously.     

THE ROLE OF EXCLUSIVE CONTRACTS IN FACILITATING MARKET TRANSACTIONS*

We examine the relationship between market conditions and the adoption of exclusive contracts. In particular, we develop a matching model in which agents may decide to adopt exclusive contracts to reduce bilateral bargaining inefficiencies in the presence of private information. We show that it is optimal for agents to adopt exclusive contracts in thin markets but not in thick markets and that for intermediate levels of market thickness strategic complementarities lead to multiple equilibria. We study the welfare properties of market equilibria and discuss under what circumstances courts should enforce exclusive contracts.     

Corporate Debt,Hybrid Securities,and the Effective Tax Rate

Effective tax rates (ETRs) are useful tools to make comparisons between different tax systems. However, the existing ETR measures are based on rather simplifying assumptions. In particular, they disregard the existence of different kinds of debt and hybrid securities. In this paper, we use contingent‐claim analysis to calculate the ETR. We will therefore deal with both pure debt and two of the most well‐known hybrid securities, that is, convertible and reverse convertible bonds. We will show that effective taxation crucially depends on the characteristics of debt and that the existing measures of ETR can be dramatically biased, since they account neither for default risk nor for the ability to convert debt into equity.     

The Eurosystem, the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan: Similarities and Differences

The paper provides a systematic comparison of the Eurosystem, the U.S. Federal Reserve, and the Bank of Japan. These monetary authorities exhibit somewhat different status and tasks, which reflect different historical conditions and national characteristics. However, widespread changes in central banking practices in the direction of greater independence and increased transparency, as well as changes in the economic and financial environment over the past 15–20 years, have contributed to reduce the differences among these three world's principal monetary authorities. A comparison based on simple "over-the-counter" policy reaction functions shows no striking differences in terms of monetary policy implementation.     

Asymmetric Taxation under Incremental and Sequential Investment

This paper discusses the effects of an asymmetric tax scheme on incremental and sequential investment strategies. The tax base is equal to the firm's return, net of an imputation rate. When the firm's return is less than this rate, however, no tax refunds are allowed. This scheme is neutral under both income and capital uncertainty.     

Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. The crisis clearly forces us to question that assessment. In this paper, we review the main elements of the precrisis consensus, identify where we were wrong and what tenets of the precrisis framework still hold, and take a tentative first pass at the contours of a new macroeconomic policy framework.