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Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals 下载免费PDF全文
PAUL HUBERT 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2015,47(4):771-789
Focusing on a set of central banks that publish inflation forecasts in real time, this paper aims to establish whether central bank inflation forecasts influence private inflation forecasts. The response is positive in the five countries studied: Sweden, the United Kingdom, Canada, Switzerland, and Japan. Three hypotheses may explain this central bank influence: central bank forecasts are more accurate than private ones, are based on different information sets, and/or convey signals about future policy decisions and policymakers’ preferences and objectives. We provide evidence that the source of these central banks’ influence is not linked to their forecasting performance. 相似文献
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Shortcomings in the treatment of intangible investment in company accounts imply that there is no statistical collection for innovative activity which abides by the logic used for other economic activity data. As a consequence, analysts rely on innovation proxies derived from administrative and survey data. However, it is still unclear exactly how the different proxies are correlated, and whether the choice amongst different proxies matters. In the light of the innovation measurement, this paper takes another look at the relationship between different proxies of firm innovation. The results show that firm‐level correlations between survey‐based indicators and other proxies for innovation are highest for manufacturing firms and for product innovations. 相似文献
14.
We examine 47 stocks that voluntarily left the American Stock Exchange from 1992 through 1995 and listed on the Nasdaq. We find that both effective and quoted spreads increase by about 100 percent after listing on the Nasdaq. These spread changes are consistent across stocks. In contrast, excess returns are positive when firms announce a switch from The American Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq. We are unable to explain this apparent contradiction. 相似文献
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Human capital earnings functions typically explain a small fraction of the total variation in earnings. The considerable uncertainty associated with expected future earnings streams enhances the desirability of a loans scheme for higher education possessing income contingent characteristics on the repayment side. The Higher Education Contribution Scheme (HECS) possesses this feature The profitability of higher education even after taking account of the HECS suggests there is scope for higher student contributions. Other possible modifications to the HECS include higher repayment rates, a change to the tax base, and a minimum repayment amount 相似文献
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The aim of this paper is to trace and explain variations in calculative and collaborative human resource management (HRM) practices between companies and across national borders. Variations and similarities are explained in terms of the convergence and divergence of HRM practices determined by national institutions, and the increasing influence of multinational companies (MNCs). We explore the diffusion of HRM practices in Europe over time, using data sets from two surveys conducted in several European countries in 1995 and 2000. We use institutional explanations for the development of three selected bundles of HRM practices: individual, calculative performance‐oriented practices; collective incentive schemes for the alignment of interests; and collaborative practices that seek to enhance the commitment of employees. We found substantial effects of country‐specific institutions and of the country of origin of MNCs, which clearly support the institutional duality thesis. Foreign‐owned MNCs, especially those that are US‐based, appear to moderate country‐specific institutional effects on the diffusion of the three HRM bundles. 相似文献
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Between the end of 1979 and the end of 1981 unemployment rose by 1.4 million. After that exceptional period unemployment continued to rise rather less rapidly to its current level of 3.2 million, Of this 3.2 million, about 1.3 million have been unemployed for more than a year. In this Briefing Paper we describe and attempt to explain the processes by which long-term unemployment rose to its current level.
We also discuss two related questions; the first concerns the relationship between unemployment and vacancies and the second concerns the relationship between long-term unemployment and inflation. The final sections consider the policy implications of these findings. 相似文献
We also discuss two related questions; the first concerns the relationship between unemployment and vacancies and the second concerns the relationship between long-term unemployment and inflation. The final sections consider the policy implications of these findings. 相似文献
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VANESSA CUNLIFFE RICHARD GEE PAUL AINSWORTH 《International Journal of Consumer Studies》1988,12(1):95-106
The purpose of this research was to investigate the efficiency of laundering at low and recommended water temperatures using a heavy-duty biological detergent and a low-temperature detergent. The effectiveness of the process was measured in terms of the degree of stain/soil removal from laundered garments, and in the removal and transfer of bacteria from infected test pieces. The results indicate that with both detergents a reduction in washing efficiency occurs as the temperature of laundering is decreased, except when the difference between the recommended and low water temperature is small. Evidence was also obtained that shows that reducing wash temperatures decreases the degree of disinfection and increases the cross-infection of articles washed in the same load. 相似文献
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Our premise is that researchers have much to gain from an understanding of the global marketplace experiences of impoverished consumers. We argue that influences of absolute and relative restriction, across peoples and societies, are particularly critical. Therefore, this research makes progress by evaluating consumer data from diverse cultures and nations using hierarchical linear models, revealing ways restriction through poverty and consumption impacts well‐being. We find that understanding both absolute and relative poverty is necessary for a more complete picture. Specifically, interactions show that absolute restriction moderates relationships between relative restriction and consumption and well‐being by muting or exacerbating the effects. 相似文献