On The Robustness of Size and Book-to-Market in Cross-Sectional Regressions

We use a robust regression estimator to analyze the risk premia on size and book-to-market. We find that the risk premium on size that was estimated by Fama and French (1992) completely disappears when the 1 percent most extreme observations are trimmed each month. We also show that the negative average of the monthly size coefficients reported by Fama and French can be entirely explained by the 16 months with the most extreme coefficients. We argue that further investigation of these results could lead to an understanding of the economic forces underlying the size effect, and may also yield important insights into how firms grow.     

The Value of Corporate Risk Management

We model and estimate the value of corporate risk management. We show how risk management can add value when revenues and costs are nonlinearly related to prices and estimate the model by regressing quarterly firm sales and costs on the second and higher moments of output and input prices. For a sample of 34 oil refiners, we find that hedging concave revenues and leaving concave costs exposed each represent between 2% and 3% of firm value. We validate our approach by regressing Tobin's q on the estimated value and level of risk management and find results consistent with the model.     

Effect of Analysts' Optimism on Estimates of the Expected Rate of Return Implied by Earnings Forecasts

Recent literature has used analysts' earnings forecasts, which are known to be optimistic, to estimate implied expected rates of return, yielding upwardly biased estimates. We estimate that the bias, computed as the difference between the estimates of the implied expected rate of return based on analysts' earnings forecasts and estimates based on current earnings realizations, is 2.84%. The importance of this bias is illustrated by the fact that several extant studies estimate an equity premium in the vicinity of 3%, which would be eliminated by the removal of the bias. We illustrate the point that cross‐sample differences in the bias may lead to the erroneous conclusion that cost of capital differs across these samples by showing that analysts' optimism, and hence, bias in the implied estimates of the expected rate of return, differs with firm size and with analysts' recommendation. As an important aside, we show that the bias in a value‐weighted estimate of the implied equity premium is 1.60% and that the unbiased value‐weighted estimate of this premium is 4.43%.     

Accounting for Trends in Productivity and R&D: A Schumpeterian Critique of Semi-Endogenous Growth Theory

This paper argues that long-run trends in R&D and TFP are more supportive of fully endogenous "Schumpeterian" growth theory than they are of semi-endogenous growth theory. The distinctive prediction of semi-endogenous theory that sustained TFP growth requires sustained growth of R&D input is not supported by co-integration tests and forecasting exercises, as TFP growth has been stationary even though the growth rate of R&D input has fallen three-fold since the early 1950s. In contrast, the prediction of Schumpeterian theory that sustained TFP growth requires a sustained fraction of GDP to be spent on R&D is not contradicted by similar tests.     

The US Economy from 1992 to 1998: Results from a Detailed CGE Model*

This paper describes historical and decomposition simulations undertaken for 1992–98 with a 500‐sector computable general equilibrium model of the US. The historical simulation provides estimates of movements in unobservable technology and preference variables. The decomposition simulation explains developments in the US economy in terms of movements in these variables and in observable exogenous variables such as tariffs. Both simulations produce many results. Here we use decomposition results to show that rapid growth in US international trade is explained mainly by technology changes that reduced costs in export‐orientated industries and increased inputs of commodities that are heavily imported.     

Investigating the Disconnect between Financial Knowledge and Behavior: The Role of Parental Influence and Psychological Characteristics in Responsible Financial Behaviors among Young Adults

Financial knowledge is an essential component in financial decision making; however, knowledge is insufficient to ensure responsible financial behavior. We investigate the weak association between financial knowledge and behavior by simultaneously testing the roles financial knowledge, parental influence, and individual psychological characteristics (self‐discipline and thoroughness) play in young adults' financial behaviors. Results from 2,712 respondents from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth confirm there is a weak association between financial knowledge and behavior. Parental influence and self‐discipline positively associate with responsible financial behavior. We also investigate the moderating role of gender and observe that financial knowledge and parental influence improve women's financial behavior more than men, whereas being thorough has a larger impact among males. These findings suggest that considering social and individual psychological factors in financial education programs could improve program efficiency. The results also highlight the importance of adopting tailored financial education to suit gender differences.