对盈余管理的再认识

盈余管理普遍存在,主要原因是企业管理层有强烈的追求与预先制定的盈余目标相一致的动机以及盈余结果的不确定性。会计政策和会计事项处理方法的可选择性导致没有绝对"真实"的盈余数据,只有相对合理的盈余结果。盈余管理具有合法性,在会计准则(或制度)允许的范围内进行正当的盈余管理是合乎道德的行为,目的是为使企业价值最大化,帮助报告使用者更好地理解公司业绩。盈余管理又具有秘密性,而这种秘密行为为社会所迫;消除盈余管理是不现实的。     

Debt Stabilizing Fiscal Rules

Unstable government debt dynamics can typically be stabilized around a certain target level of debt by adjustments in various fiscal instruments, like government spending, transfers, or taxes. This paper investigates properties of debt stabilizing rules which link the needed budgetary adjustments to the state of the economy. The paper establishes that the magnitude of the target level of long‐run debt is a key determinant of whether it is possible to find a rule of this type that can be implemented under all available fiscal instruments. Specifically, considering linear feedback rules, the paper demonstrates that there may well exist a critical target level of debt beyond which this is no longer possible. From an applied perspective, this finding is of particular relevance in the context of a monetary union with decentralized fiscal policies. Depending on the target level of debt, there might be a conflict between a common fiscal framework that tracks deficit developments as a function of the state of the economy and the unrestricted choice of fiscal policy instruments at the national level.     

FIRMS’ CHARACTERISTIC AND EQUILIBRIUM WITH TRADEABLE PERMITS MARKET*

We study, in a simple model, the partial equilibrium of an industry with n firms endowed by different Cobb‐Douglas technologies which have different pollution effects. The price of input (labour) and the demand curve to the industry are given. Pollution is restricted by a tradeable market of permits in the industry. Each firm is characterised by a parameter combining production efficiency and pollution effect, its e‐characteristic. The equilibrium depends mainly on these e‐characteristics which are linked to the performance of the technologies. In the long run performances are defined per unit of capital. Last, we analyse the consequences of permits’ allocations on the profitability of the firms.     

The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets

This paper attempts to determine whether the fluctuations of conditional first and second moments—which are observed for many assets—are consistent with the Sharpe-Lintner-Mossin capital asset pricing model. We test the mean-variance model under several different assumptions about the time variation of conditional second moments of returns, using weekly data from July 1974 to December 1986, that include returns on a portfolio composed of dollar, Deutsche mark, sterling, and Swiss franc assets, together with the U.S. stock market. The results indicate that estimated conditional variances cannot explain the observed time variation of risk premia.     

THE VARIOUS DIMENSIONS OF COMMODITY DEPENDENCE IN AFRICA

This paper considers whether or not the poor performance of many African countries can be ascribed to a dependency on primary commodity exports. This is a multidimensional question which concerns the Prebisch‐Singer Hypothesis, commodity price volatility, the dependence of GDP on exports and the commodity price elasticity of exchange rates (the so‐called Dutch disease problem). To consider these questions, the paper uses data on 39 commodities and ten African countries. It finds that relative to the price of manufactured goods there is a downward secular trend in less than half of the commodity prices considered. Nonetheless, most commodity prices are highly volatile. Furthermore, in the case of half of the countries considered GDP is dependent on exports. However, the paper finds limited evidence for Dutch disease.     

Firm Value and Hedging: Evidence from U.S. Oil and Gas Producers

This paper studies the hedging activities of 119 U.S. oil and gas producers from 1998 to 2001 and evaluates their effect on firm value. Theories of hedging based on market imperfections imply that hedging should increase the firm's market value (MV). To test this hypothesis, we collect detailed information on the extent of hedging and on the valuation of oil and gas reserves. We verify that hedging reduces the firm's stock price sensitivity to oil and gas prices. Contrary to previous studies, however, we find that hedging does not seem to affect MVs for this industry.     

Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run

This paper re-examines the evidence on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in the long run. Previous studies have generally been unable to reject the hypothesis that the real exchange rate follows a random walk. If true, this implies that PPP does not hold. In contrast, this paper casts serious doubt on this random walk hypothesis. The results follow from more powerful estimation techniques, applied in a multilateral framework. Deviations from PPP, while substantial in the short run, appear to take about three years to be reduced in half.     

Asymmetric Labor Market Institutions in the EMU and the Volatility of Inflation and Unemployment Differentials

How does the asymmetry of labor market institutions affect the adjustment of a currency union to shocks? To answer this question, this paper sets up a dynamic currency union model with monopolistic competition and sticky prices, hiring frictions, and real wage rigidities. In our analysis, we focus on the differentials in inflation and unemployment between countries, as they directly reflect how the currency union responds to shocks. We highlight the following three results. First, we show that it is important to distinguish between different labor market rigidities as they have opposite effects on inflation and unemployment differentials. Second, we find that asymmetries in labor market structures tend to increase the volatility of both inflation and unemployment differentials. Finally, we show that it is important to take into account the interaction between different types of labor market rigidities. Overall, our results suggest that asymmetries in labor market structures worsen the adjustment of a currency union to shocks.