Simon Kuipers: An Economist in Search of Rigour and Relevance

At the end of 1997 and after twenty-five years of duty, Professor Simon Kuipers retired as managing editor of De Economist. As a token of indebtedness and gratitude, this article reviews Kuipers' written work. The article focuses on two topics that dominate Kuipers' endeavours. First, his contributions to macroeconomic theory, with particular emphasis on his (neo-)Keynesian approach are examined. Second, Kuipers' contributions to actual monetary and economic policy are discussed, emphasis being placed on his empirical work.     

Pricing Participating Inflation Retirement Funds Through Option Modeling and Copulas

Abstract

Pension plans and life insurances offering minimum performance guarantees are very common worldwide. In the Brazilian market, the customers of a common type of defined contribution plan have the right to receive, over their savings, the positive difference between the return of a specified investment fund, usually a fixed income fund, and the minimum guaranteed rate, commonly defined as the composition of a fixed interest rate and a floating inflation rate. This instrument can be characterized as an option to exchange one asset, the minimum guaranteed rate, for another, the return of the specified investment fund. In this paper we provide a closed formula to evaluate this liability that depends on two stochastic rates assuming bivariate normality. We also explore the use of copulas for the modeling of the dependence structure and price the options using Monte Carlo simulation to compare the effects of the copula specification in their values. An application with real data is provided. The model makes use of a one-factor Vasicek framework for the term structures of interest rate and inflation rate.     

Analyzing fixed-event forecast revisions

It is common practice to evaluate fixed-event forecast revisions in macroeconomics by regressing current forecast revisions on one-period lagged forecast revisions. Under weak-form (forecast) efficiency, the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions should be zero. The empirical findings in the literature suggest that this null hypothesis of zero correlation is rejected frequently, and the correlation can be either positive (which is widely interpreted in the literature as “smoothing”) or negative (which is widely interpreted as “over-reacting”). We propose a methodology for interpreting such non-zero correlations in a straightforward and clear manner. Our approach is based on the assumption that numerical forecasts can be decomposed into both an econometric model and random expert intuition. We show that the interpretation of the sign of the correlation between the current and one-period lagged revisions depends on the process governing intuition, and the current and lagged correlations between intuition and news (or shocks to the numerical forecasts). It follows that the estimated non-zero correlation cannot be given a direct interpretation in terms of either smoothing or over-reaction.     

Inefficiencies in Public Environmental Services

The paper discusses efficiency issues in the public provision of environmental services, in particular waste water treatment. It is shown that in the face of increasing, respectively decreasing returns to scale the zero profit constraint of a cost minimizing public firm induces underinvestment, respectively overinvestment in public capacity compared with efficient allocation between public purification and effluent control by private polluters. X-inefficiency of the public firm counter-acts the inefficiency in allocation arising from overinvestment, and it reinforces the inefficiency in allocation in case of underinvestment in public purification capacity. As subsidy can bring down the user's charge imposed on sources, but it will also increase X-inefficiency. The subsidy counteracts underinvestment but reinforces overinvestment in public capacity.     

Consumer Cynicism toward Collective Buying: The Interplay of Others’ Outcomes,Social Value Orientation,and Mood

This research examines whether consumer cynicism about collective buying depends on consumers’ observations of fellow buyers being treated unfairly in a cobuying context. Prosocial consumers should differ from proself consumers in their level of cynicism, because they value equality in outcomes. Study 1 reveals that prosocials become cynical if others receive an unfair outcome and therefore do not repatronize the provider. This effect does not occur for proselfs. Study 2 shows that mood mediates this effect. Specifically, when prosocial consumers are in a positive mood, the others’ outcomes no longer influence their cynicism. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Modelling new pricing strategies for the Santiago Metro

After twenty years of operation the Santiago Metro decided to start a new strategy of price differences by period in order to decrease congestion in the morning peak and to postpone the acquisition of new equipment. In this paper we report the results of a model specifically designed to test the impact of different price levels on patronage by period. Stated preference (SP) data was collected, focusing on three aspects: change in time of travel, price differences and comfort improvements. A goods-leisure microeconomics framework was adopted to decide on users segmentation and model specification. Two methodological aspects were explored, the non-linear marginal valuation of time displacements and the different known ways to analyse SP rating experiments. In this quest, models were calibrated both with a standard and an optimal probabilistic interpretation of the semantic scale and with the ordinal probit and binary logit models. Comparisons were made and conclusions reached about the more appropriate approach.Finally, the current time-of-day pricing strategy of the Santiago Metro, which commenced operation in February 1994, was simulated using the best models reported in the paper. This was done in order to test their validity against an observed reality.     

A general equilibrium analysis of parental leave policies

Despite mandatory parental leave policies being a prevalent feature of labor markets in developed countries, their aggregate effects in the economy are not well understood. To assess their quantitative impact, we develop a general equilibrium model of fertility and labor market decisions that builds on the labor matching framework of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994). We find that females gain substantially with generous policies but this benefit occurs at the expense of a reduction in the welfare of males. Leave policies have important effects on fertility, leave taking decisions, and employment. These effects are mainly driven by how the policy affects bargaining – young females anticipate future states with higher threat points induced by the policy. Because the realization of these states depends on the decisions of females to give birth and take a leave, leave policies effectively subsidize fertility and leave taking. We also find that generous paid parental leaves can be an effective tool to encourage mothers to spend time with their children after giving birth.     

A No‐Arbitrage Fractional Cointegration Model for Futures and Spot Daily Ranges

The no‐arbitrage relation between futures and spot prices implies an analogous relation between futures and spot daily ranges. The long‐memory features of the range‐based volatility estimators are analyzed, and fractional cointegration is tested in a semi‐parametric framework. In particular, the no‐arbitrage condition is used to derive a long‐run relationship between volatility measures and to justify the use of a fractional vector error correction model (FVECM) to study their dynamic relationship. The out‐of‐sample forecasting superiority of FVECM, with respect to alternative models, is documented. The results highlight the importance of incorporating the long‐run equilibrium in volatilities to obtain better forecasts, given the information content in the volatility of futures prices. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 33:77–102, 2013