Information effects of loan portfolio quality on bank value

In this paper, the authors test whether loan-loss reserve announcements by individual commercial banks can have contagion effects on the banking industry. It is found that increased loan-loss reserves related to LDC debt do not have an effect on other banks. However, increased loan-loss reserves related to bad real estate loans elicited a negative share price response at other banks. The signal from a loss reserve adjustment is dependent on the reason for the adjustment. While LDC debt problems were restricted to money center banks and were well publicized, real estate loan problems can be contagious throughout the industry. Consequently, signals of real estate loan problems at some banks can cause a reduced valuation of other banks.     

Book reviews

New Technology and Industrial Relations R. Hyman & W. Streeck Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1988.

Strategic Planning: Development and Implementation. Bonita H. Melcher & Harold Kerzner Blue Ridge Summit, PA, TAB Books, 1988, 404 pp., £23.65.

Science and Corporate Strategy: Du Pont R & D, 1902-1980 D.A. Hounshell & J.K. Smith New York, Cambridged University Press, 1988.

Sharpbenders: The Secrets of Unleashing Corporate Potential Pete H. Grinyer, David G. Mayes & Peter McKiernan Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1988, 287 pp., £25.00.

Small and Medium Size Enterprises and Regional Development Maria Giaoutzi, Peter Nijkamp & David J. Storey (Eds.) London, Routledge 1988, 314 pp.     

Industrial Structures and Economic Growth: an Input–Output Perspective

The slow-down of economic growth in European countries in recent years raises important economic policyissues. Most economic observers consider that the reasons for the slow-down are structural and are to be found in rigidities on the markets of primary factors or lack of technological innovative capabilities. Input–Output analysis can provide valuable insights into the nature of the phenomenon, and could help to design structural policies in order to foster economic growth.     

The Distributional Effects of Indirect Tax Changes in Italy

This paper evaluatesthe distributional and welfare effects of two recent changesof Value Added Tax (VAT) and excise taxes in Italy applying andcomparing two related and complementary methods of analysis:the first based on the distributional characteristics of Feldstein(1972) and recently applied by Newbery (1995); the second basedon the theory of marginal dominance developed by Mayshar andYitzhaki (1996). The paper finds no evidence that the reformshave redistributed purchasing power among households. But themost striking result is that a simpler two-rate VAT structure,set according to the European directives on VAT coordination,could have replaced the present system producing the same revenueand increasing welfare. This last result provides a clear instancein which reducing the number of VAT rates can be welcome evenin the presence of distributional concerns.     

Group Affiliation and Ownership Concentration as Determinants of Capital Structure Decisions: Contextualizing the Facts for an Emerging Economy

This study considers the firm’s affiliation with business groups and the ownership structure as determinants of leverage decisions in Chilean firms. The major findings show that group-affiliated firms take advantage of internal capital markets and transactions with related parties (e.g., low transference price or loans at competitive interest rates) that reduces the demand for external debt. Majority shareholders in affiliated firms behave as controllers of managers, on the one hand, and avoid the supervisory role of debt, on the other hand. In stand-alone firms, supervision led by majority shareholders is complemented by the monitoring role of debt through higher levels of leverage. We conclude that further developments in capital structure theories adjusted to the particularities of the different institutional contexts are needed.     

Stratified realization of comparative probabilities

A definition of realization for comparative probabilities using coherent conditional probabilities is proposed in a finite setting and named stratified realization. The extent of stratified realization is examined in detail and comparisons are made with realization by means of a strictly positive, not necessarily bounded real measure (orP ₁-realization). Given a comparative probability which admits stratified realization, necessary conditions forP ₁-realization are found. A sufficient condition for the same problem is then proved, and the relationship with other forms of realization, is briefly discussed.

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Sommario In questa nota viene proposta, in ambiente finito, una definizione di realizzabilità di prbabilità qualitative mediante, probabilità condizionate coerenti, detta realizzabilità stratificata. Tale nozione è basata su un'opportuna caratterizzazione delle probabilità condizionate coerenti e generalizza la realizzabilità con misure reali strettamente positive (oP ₁-realizzabilità).La realizzabilità stratificata viene esaminata in dettaglio, fornendo condizioni necessarie affinché una probabilità qualitativa realizzabile in tal senso sia ancheP ₁-realizzabile. Si prova poi per lo stesso problema una condizione sufficiente. Infine viene brevemente discussa la relazione fra realizzabilità stratificata e alcune altre nozioni di realizzabilità.

     

Dynamic patterns in similarity-based cooperation: an agent-based investigation

Understanding what motivates and fosters collective actions has major implications in the governance and management of organizations, in the regulation and design of public policies, and has long attracted the interests of scholars and practitioners in business and economics. This paper deals with how groups of agents emerge in a dynamic contest characterized by lack of formal structure and uncertainty regarding the possible individual outcomes, focusing on the features of the cooperators and on the dynamics emerging among them. Through the development of a stylized agent-based model we start by showing how similarity in values can be a successful driver for cooperation but are also able to highlight the limits of such process, by looking at how and how much agents cooperate with similar others. A second-version of the model, where memory of past interactions has a role, introduces further dynamics and is able to create successful and relatively stable groups.     

The splitting up of a financial project into uniperiodic consecutive projects

The splitting up of a financial project into uniperiodic consecutive financial projects, has been discussed for special cases in a rather theoretical context.The aim of the present paper is to explore this topic within a general framework, illustrating the capability of the proposed approach.The resulting implication which are specifically pertinent to the valuation of a financial operation will be discussed in a forthcoming paper.     

An investigation on the causal relationships between banking concentration and economic growth

This paper explores the causality between concentration in the banking industry and economic growth. Two empirical tests are performed for Italy over the period 1991-2001: the first one is a standard Granger-Sims causality test, the second one studies the direction of causality by taking into account the impact of changes in banks' internal and external factors on their own market shares. The results show that in the short-run economic growth is predominantly caused by banking consolidation, while in the long-run a reverse causation direction emerges, so that economic expansions tend to reduce market shares and thus favour a stronger competition in the industry.