Discrimination,technology and unemployment

I study the interaction between discrimination and investment using a directed search model where firms decide the capital intensity of their production technologies before being matched. Discrimination makes some workers cheap to hire. As a consequence, some firms might save on capital costs adopting labour intensive technologies. This framework allows one to reconcile search models with three well-known facts regarding the labour market outcomes of minority workers: low wages, high unemployment and occupational segregation. Furthermore, the model questions the role of equal pay legislation in reducing inequality since removing this restriction, i.e., allowing firms to post type-contingent wages, eliminates the negative effects of discrimination on investment and wages.     

Relative deprivation,reference groups and the assessment of standard of living

This paper proposes two new indices of relative deprivation, derived from an extension of the concept of generalized Gini to the measurement of distributional change. Population- and income-weighted relative deprivation indices are then defined and, using panel data from the Consortium of Household Panels for European Socio-Economic Research (CHER), we check which of the various ways of defining individual deprivation best fits the answers given by individuals on the degree of their satisfaction with income. We find that the deprivation indices proposed are consistently and negatively correlated with income satisfaction as reported by respondents, that income weighted measures fit better than population weighted measures and that this fit improves with countries that experienced deep institutional changes such as the transitional economies of Eastern Europe.     

Identifying bank outputs and inputs with a directional technology distance function

The bank efficiency literature lacks an agreed definition of bank outputs and inputs. This is problematic given the long-standing controversy concerning the status of deposits, but also because bank efficiency estimates are known to be affected by the inclusion of additional outputs such as non-traditional (fee-based) activities or risk measures. This paper proposes a data-driven identification of bank outputs and inputs using the directional technology distance function. While previous applications of this tool used symmetric expansion or contraction directions, we focus on a set of orthogonal directions, each corresponding to an assumption on the input/output status of an individual variable. These directions correspond to a set of different specifications, whose estimated coefficients can be used to determine the input or output status of all variables except the regressand. Our empirical analysis revealed a very consistent pattern across the alternative specifications estimated. There is strong evidence that customer deposits are an input, and that non-performing loans are an important undesirable output. Finally, the orthogonal expansions/contractions we consider avoid the simultaneity problem raised by the “convenient normalization” commonly used to impose linear homogeneity in stochastic frontier estimation.     

Nonlinearity in monetary policy: A reconsideration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation

The proponents of the ‘opportunistic’ approach to disinflation suggest that, when inflation is close to the target, the central bank should not counteract inflationary pressures. Orphanides and Wilcox (2002) formalize this idea through a simple policy rule that prescribes a nonlinear adjustment to a history-dependent target for inflation. This embodies a regime change in monetary policy, which reacts to inflation only when this is far from the inflation target. Here we study the opportunistic approach in a New-Keynesian model with sizeable nominal and real rigidites in the form of a positive money demand and adjustment costs for investment. We find that the welfare gains delivered by the opportunistic rule arise from the time-varying inflation target, when welfare is measured by a quadratic approximation of household utility. The nonlinear zone of inaction on inflation improves welfare outcomes only when a central bank loss function with the absolute value of the output gap is used, as proposed by Orphanides and Wilcox (2002).     

On the Relation between Money and Derivatives and its Application to the International Monetary Market

The paper deals with the problem of defining money in a system with derivatives. We conclude that derivatives have to be included in the definition of money, and support our conclusions with an econometric test on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Chicago Board of Trade indexes. We focus on the direct relationship between derivatives' supply and the interest rate, the analytical basis of speculative money demand introduced by Keynes and the foundation of the Fratianni-Savona model to single out the international monetary base. Consequently, monetary aggregates measured by international institutions, such as the Bank for International Settlements, underestimate the actual offshore market size. Derivatives are the primary instruments used by speculators. There is money, mainly in reserve currencies, that is not controlled and that may cause systemic instability (e.g., the recent Asian crisis).     

Productivity, terms of trade and the ‘home market effect’

This paper analyzes the international transmission and welfare implications of productivity gains and changes in market size when macroeconomic adjustment occurs both along the intensive margin of trade (changes in the relative price of existing varieties of tradable goods) and the extensive margin (creation and destruction of varieties). We draw a distinction between productivity gains that enhance manufacturing efficiency and gains that lower the cost of firms' entry and of product differentiation. Countries with lower manufacturing costs have higher GDP but supply their products at lower international prices. Instead, countries with lower entry costs supply a larger array of goods at improved terms of trade. Output growth driven by demographic expansions, as well as government spending, is associated with an improvement in international relative prices and firms' entry. While trade liberalization may result in a smaller array of goods available to consumers, efficiency gains from deeper economic integration benefit consumers via lower goods prices. The international transmission mechanism and the welfare spillovers vary under different asset market structures, depending on trade costs, the elasticity of labor supply, and consumers' taste for varieties.     

Time‐varying yield curve dynamics and monetary policy

Monetary policy, the yield curve and the private sector behaviour of the US economy are modelled as a time‐varying structural vector autoregression. The monetary policy shocks of the early 1980s explain a large portion of the persistence of inflation and the level of the term structure. Changes in inflation expectations implied by the yield curve account for the persistence of the federal funds rate. Failures of the expectations hypothesis are rare, and coincided with the credibility building of Paul Volcker's Fed tenure at the beginning of the 1980s and the sequence of consecutive policy rate cuts around the time of the early 1990s recession. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

WELFARE ENHANCING COORDINATION IN CONSUMER COOPERATIVES UNDER MIXED OLIGOPOLY

The recent globalization of world economies has led the retail markets of developed countries towards increasing levels of integration and strategic interdependence. A non negligible share of retail and food markets is currently served by co‐operative societies. Consistently with this trend, the consumer cooperatives have recently experienced increasing levels of integration. The main aim of this paper is to study the welfare effects of coordination among consumer cooperatives competing in quantities in a mixed oligopoly against profit‐maximizing firms. We show that, in absence of agency problems, under increasing or constant returns to scale a higher output coordination of the consumer cooperatives does not affect the total welfare as long as a nonnegative profit constraint holds in these firms. On the other hand, under decreasing returns to scale, the consumer cooperatives contribute more to social welfare when acting on behalf of all consumers. This is because, by coordinating consumers’ preferences, these firms can reduce their market output, thus helping the market to come closer to the first best. All together these results seem to provide an argument in favour of the recent process of integration involving consumer cooperatives in many developed countries.     

Small firms and technological development in the food processing machinery industry: The case of pasta and other cereal derivative machines in Italy

This study about Italian producers of machines and plants for pasta, basic cereals, snacks and bread factories attempts to shed some light on the role played by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the Italian industry. Even if the high diffusion of SMEs has positively affected the performance of Italian economy during the seventies and the eighties, the new trends of technological change and global competition are expected to be unfavourable to this category of enterprises in the nineties. The analyses of a significant sample of firms makes clear that the industry is in the middle of a positive restructuring process. The structure of this sector shows a division of labour based on deverticalization of production, and a process of internationalization focused on exports and not on direct investments or joint ventures abroad. Leading firms are following growth strategies by new investments and acquisitions. Finally, as far as technological change is concerned, there is a significant increase of process innovations, thanks to the use of electronic components.An earlier release of this paper was presented at 7th EARIE (European Association for Research in Industrial Economics) Annual Conference in Lisbon, September 2–4 1990. We thank all the participants for their comments and suggestions, in particular P. Dunne.