Macroeconomic Effects of Precautionary Demand for Oil

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of shocks specific to the oil market, which mainly reflect fluctuations in precautionary demand for oil driven by uncertainty about future supplies. A two‐stage identification procedure is used. First, daily changes in the futures–spot price spread proxy for precautionary demand shocks and the path of oil prices is estimated. This information is then exploited to restrict the oil price response in a vector autoregression. Impulse responses suggest that such shocks reduce output and raise prices. Historical decomposition shows that they contributed significantly to the US recessions in the 1990s and in the early 2000s, but not to the most recent slump. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating the Size and Impact of Affirmative Action in Undergraduate Admissions at the University of Cape Town

In this paper, we estimate the extent and targeting of affirmative action at the University of Cape Town (UCT), a large public university in South Africa. To do this we use admissions data from the UCT, as well as South African population census data and administrative enrolment and graduation data from the South African Department of Higher Education. We find that affirmative action does have a significant effect on the racial distribution of who is made an offer by the university. We also find that affirmative action is well targeted, with those who we estimate to be beneficiaries being of much lower socioeconomic status than those who we estimate are displaced by affirmative action. Beneficiaries of affirmative action have low graduation rates on average, with those beneficiaries who attend UCT being less likely to graduate than those beneficiaries who enrol at other public universities.     

Municipal Auditing in Germany and Italy: Explosion,Change, or Recalcitrance?

Abstract: By analysing two countries that have recently undergone NPM reform at the municipal level (Germany and Italy), our investigation challenges two popular notions: (1) that an audit explosion occurs as a result of reform, and (2) that reform causes change, i.e., that actors within a changing institutional context automatically adapt. Our empirically‐derived observations are of (1) an audit implosion, and (2) institutional, cultural, and political conditions that trump any automatic adaptation to change. Indeed, these conditions – not audit reform per se – can shape the process and determine the direction of change. Recalcitrance, the stubborn resistance to and defiance of authority or guidance, is an interesting characteristic of some institutions. German auditors illustrate this nicely; our Italian case study demonstrates a mandatory dismantling of institutional inertia. By analysing the causal relationship between public management reforms and auditing, our research highlights the factors that prevent auditors from adapting to contextual change and factors that render obedience. We test Power's audit explosion theory by operationalising it into five key components which are then evaluated within the landscapes of recent German and Italian municipal reform.     

Correction to: A probabilistic projection of beneficiaries of long‑term care insurance in Germany by severity of disability

Quality & Quantity - An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.     

R&D financing and growth

ABSTRACT

R&D investment are an important engine of growth and development. Yet economists have often claimed underinvestment, based on the consideration that these projects are more costly to finance, especially, due to the asymmetric information between inside and outside investors. Coherently, a recent empirical evidence has shown that firms intensively active in R&D are less leveraged and rely more heavily on internal finance. Motivated by this evidence, we study the effects of asymmetric information and financial frictions within a GE economy of Schumpeterian tradition. The model and equilibrium concept are rich enough to represent investment and innovation decisions, technology adoption/diffusion through patent licensing and, most importantly, firms' financial decisions. In this representation, R&D-intensive firms might effectively rely more on internal sources and equity than on debt financing, relative to what would happen in frictionless markets. Further, financial decisions affect aggregate investment and income dynamics.     

Fiscal Leadership and Coordination in the EMU

We analyze the role of fiscal-monetary policy interactions and fiscal coordination in EMU under the assumption of strategic wage setting in unionized labour markets. We find that production subsidies and real wage distortions are strategic complements. The literature on macroeconomic stabilisation policies and policy games usually neglects this point and reaches overoptimistic conclusions about the desirable effects of accommodating fiscal policies. Central bank preferences also affect the desirability of fiscal coordination in a monetary union. In fact, contrary to Beetsma and Bovenberg (1998), we find that fiscal coordination improves outcomes in the case of a conservative central banker, whereas it leads to worse outcomes with a populist one.

Inflation targets and endogenous wage markups in a New Keynesian model

Empirical contributions show that wage re-negotiations take place while expiring contracts are still in place. This is captured by assuming that nominal wages are pre-determined. As a consequence, wage setters act as Stackelberg leaders, whereas in the typical New Keynesian model the wage-setting rule implies that they play a Nash game. We present a DSGE New Keynesian model with pre-determined wages and money entering the representative household’s utility function and show how these assumptions are sufficient to identify an inverse relationship between the inflation target and the wage markup (and thus employment) both in the short and the long run. This is due to the complementary effects that wage claims and the inflation target have on money holdings. Model estimates suggest that a moderate long-run inflation rate generates non-negligible output gains.     

The Role of Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union: are National Automatic Stabilizers Effective?*

We assess the role of national fiscal policies, as automatic stabilizers, within a monetary union. We use a two‐country New Keynesian DSGE model, incorporating non‐Ricardian consumers and a home bias in national consumption. Fiscal policy directly stabilizes non‐Ricardian agents' consumption. By doing so it contributes to the reduction in the volatility of variables such as output, wage inflation, and real interest rates. Our analysis of country‐specific shocks does not suggest potential inter‐country conflicts (as long as policies are constrained within the automatic stabilizers framework). However, we detect a potential conflict between the two consumer groups, because fiscal policy may raise optimizing agents' consumption volatility.     

Barriers to investment in ICT

This paper studies the complementarity between investment in information and communication technologies (ICT) and the related investment in human and organizational capital. Using firm-level data taken from a large sample of Italian manufacturing firms, an ICT marginal product much higher than its user cost is estimated. It is then argued that missing complementary investments may have acted as barriers to investment in ICT. Results support the conjecture that the marginal product excess over the user cost is due to those firms that did not complement their ICT investment with an increase in the human capital of their labour force and with a reorganization of the workplace.