Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races?*

Using global data for the period 1960–99, we model military expenditure. Neighbours’ military spending and development aid are important determinants of military expenditure. An implication of the model is that there are regional arms races which are fuelled by aid. Potentially, aid is encouraging a ‘regional public bad’. There may, however, be an offsetting public good effect if military spending deters rebellions. In a simultaneous equation model, we find no deterrence effect of spending on the risk of civil war. Hence, there appears to be no regional public good effect offsetting the public bad arising from a neighbourhood arms race.     

Corporate social monitoring in South Africa: A decade of achievement,an uncertain future

Corporate social monitoring has reached its most systematic form and has had the most practical impact with regard to companies doing business in South Africa. The Sullivan Principles have guided the monitoring system for U.S. companies, of which about 166 remain in South Africa and about 140 have withdrawn. However, corporate social monitoring in South Africa is currently subject to certain tensions. The Rev. Sullivan has called for the withdrawal of U.S. companies, and has himself withdrawn from the monitoring effort.This paper discusses the economic climate for U.S. business in South Africa both historically and currently, the conflicting pressures experienced by U.S. companies remaining there, and the effectiveness of strategies aimed to create pressure for companies to withdraw, including divestment resolutions, purchasing restrictions, and sanctions.Current attempts to retain a form of corporate social monitoring are described. The potential politicization of the system is discussed, with particular attention paid to the formation of a new structure which could come to provide the moral leadership formerly provided by the Rev. Sullivan. However, corporate social monitoring could become confused with an anti-sanctions lobbying effort on the part of corporations, and would lose credibility if this were to occur.Karen Paul is an Associate Professor of Management at Rochester Institute of Technology. The research for her article was completed while she was 1987–88 Peace Fellow at the Bunting Institute of Radcliffe College, and was also supported by a Fulbright Senior Research Grant.     

A PROFILE OF DOCTORAL DISSERTATIONS IN STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT: A NOTE*

A study of 88 randomly selected strategy-related dissertations was conducted to develop a statistical profile of dissertations in the strategic management field. This study also provides some empirical evidence supporting the criticism that the field is fragmented.     

A Parimutuel Market Microstructure for Contingent Claims

Parimutuel principles are widely used as an alternative to fixed odds gambling in which a bookmaker acts as a dealer by quoting fixed rates of return on specified wagers. A parimutuel game is conducted as a call auction in which odds are allowed to fluctuate during the betting period until the betting period is closed or the auction ‘called’. The prices or odds of wagers are set based upon the relative amounts wagered on each risky outcome. In financial microstructure terms, trading under parimutuel principles is characterised by (1) call auction, non‐continuous trading; (2) riskless funding of claim payouts using the amounts paid for all of the claims during the auction; (3) special equilibrium pricing conditions requiring the relative prices of contingent claims equal the relative aggregate amounts wagered on such claims; (4) endogenous determination of unique state prices; and (5) higher efficiency. Recently, a number of large investment banks have adopted a parimutuel mechanism for offering contingent claims on various economic indices, such as the US Nonfarm payroll report and Eurozone Harmonised inflation. Our paper shows how the market microstructure incorporating parimutuel principles for contingent claims which allows for notional transactions, limit orders, and bundling of claims across states is constructed. We prove the existence of a unique price equilibrium for such a market and suggest an algorithm for computing the equilibrium. We also suggest that for a broad class of contingent claims, that the parimutuel microstructure recently deployed offers many advantages over the dominant dealer and exchange continuous time mechanisms.     

Forecast Encompassing and Parameter Estimation*

A desirable property of a forecast is that it encompasses competing predictions, in the sense that the accuracy of the preferred forecast cannot be improved through linear combination with a rival prediction. In this paper, we investigate the impact of the uncertainty associated with estimating model parameters in‐sample on the encompassing properties of out‐of‐sample forecasts. Specifically, using examples of non‐nested econometric models, we show that forecasts from the true (but estimated) data generating process (DGP) do not encompass forecasts from competing mis‐specified models in general, particularly when the number of in‐sample observations is small. Following this result, we also examine the scope for achieving gains in accuracy by combining the forecasts from the DGP and mis‐specified models.     

Instrumental variable estimation based on grouped data

The paper considers the estimation of the coefficients of a single equation in the presence of dummy intruments. We derive pseudo ML and GMM estimators based on moment restrictions induced either by the structural form or by the reduced form of the model. The performance of the estimators is evaluated for the non-Gaussian case. We allow for heteroscedasticity. The asymptotic distributions are based on parameter sequences where the number of instruments increases at the same rate as the sample size. Relaxing the usual Gaussian assumption is shown to affect the normal asymptotic distributions. As a result also recently suggested new specification tests for the validity of instruments depend on Gaussianity. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the accuracy of the asymptotic approach.     

The problem of unobservables in strategic management research

In this paper we argue that unobservable constructs lie at the core of a number of influential theories used in the strategic management literature—including agency theory, transaction cost theory, and the resource-based view of the firm. The debate over how best to deal with the problem of unobservables has raged in the philosophy of science literature for the best part of the current century. On the one hand, there are the positivists, who believe that theories containing unobservable constructs are only useful as tools for making predictions. According to positivists, such theories do not inform us about the deep structure of reality. On the other hand, there are the realists, who believe that our theories can give us knowledge about unobservables. Herein we review this debate, we argue for adopting a realist position, and we draw out the implications for strategic management research.     

Flight Capital as a Portfolio Choice

This article sets flight capital in the context of portfoliochoice, focusing on the proportion of private wealth that isheld abroad. There are large regional differences in this proportion,ranging from 5 percent in South Asia to 40 percent in Africa.The authors explain cross-country differences in portfolio choiceusing variables that proxy differences in the risk-adjustedrate of return on capital. They apply the results to three policyissues: how the East Asian crisis affected domestic capitaloutflows; the effect of the International Monetary Fund–WorldBank debt relief initiative for heavily indebted poor countrieson capital repatriation; and why so much of Africa's privatewealth is held outside the continent.