Discussion of “The Role of Expectations in Explaining the Cross-Section of Stock Returns”

This paper discusses Copeland et al. (2004), which empirically investigates the role of changes in expectations in explaining contemporaneous cross-sectional stock returns. Because the main results in this study are largely confirmatory of results reported in prior literature, my discussion emphasizes conceptual issues in the econometric specification of earnings–return relations. I derive three versions of return specifications from popular valuation models based on residual earnings, free cash flows, or earnings growth, and contrast them with that adopted by Copeland et al. (2004). This analysis suggests that firmer grounding in theory would help the paper in empirical specifications as well as interpretations of results.     

WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR THE DECLINE IN CRIME?*

In this article we analyze recent trends in aggregate property crime rates in the United States. We propose a dynamic equilibrium model that guides our quantitative investigation of the major determinants of observed patterns of crime. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: First, the model is capable of reproducing the drop in crime between 1980 and 1996. Second, the most important factors that account for the observed decline in property crime are the higher apprehension probability, the stronger economy, and the aging of the population. Third, the effect of unemployment on crime is negligible. Fourth, the increased inequality prevented an even larger decline in crime. Overall, our analysis can account for the behavior of the time series of property crime rates over the past quarter century.     

Fashion centres: An approach to sector intervention

The clothing and textile industry is a major employer in many areas. It consists of a large number of small firms characterised by very poor working conditions. The need to sustain employment in the industry and improve conditions has led to several local authorities adopting a sector approach to intervention. This paper looks at the development of one particular measure, the establishment of fashion centres.     

Entry and growth in a perfectly competitive vintage model

A perfectly competitive vintage-knowledge model of Schumpeterian growth is introduced to study the relation between growth, technology-lifetime, entry, and productivity-dispersion. The incentive to innovate is generated by the productivity-dispersion (latent in traditional vintage models) between new and old plants, rather than by monopoly rents. The model has a unique steady-state REE with endogenous growth. The endogenous extent of entry constitutes a buffer, dampening the effect of research-efficiency and completely neutralizing the effect of population size or population growth rates on per-capita income levels and growth rates. Variations of research-efficiency lead to a negative relation between growth and vintage-lifetime and a non-monotonic relation between growth and productivity-dispersion.     

网络环境下博物馆信息资源的采集策略

博物馆信息资源建设是博物馆信息化建设的重要组成部分。网络环境下的博物馆信息资源建设除了传统的藏品资源建设以外,还包括文献信息资源建设和网络信息资源建设等。针对不同的信息资源类型,采取不同的采集策略。时博物馆藏品档案信息,输入要完整、处理要规范、输出要主动,充分揭示藏品的文化内涵及实现其科技信息价值;对博物馆文献信息资源要拓宽进书渠道,实行采购方式多样化,重视数据库及灰色文献;充分挖掘网络信息资源,开展共建共享,全面提升文献信息保障能力。     

替代国制度对我国的影响及其应对策略

替代国制度是对被认定为是来自非市场经济国家的出口产品计算正常价值的一种方法。因此，确定一种产品是否存在倾销及倾销幅度的大小很大程度上取决于替代国的选择。在反倾销调查中导致我国出口企业屡屡被认定为存在倾销行为的重要原因之一就是替代国的选择不合理。面对替代国制度给我国带来的负面影响，如何有效应对成为我国政府和企业的当务之急。     

对科学发展观指导下的高校思想政治教育工作的探讨

科学发展观是推进我国经济社会全面发展的指导思想,也是加强和改进大学生思想政治教育的指导方针。本文通过分析高校思想政治教育存在的普遍问题,提出了在科学发展观指导下的思想政治教育工作的新思路,新途径。     

Technological innovation and real investment booms and busts

We investigate why new, high-risk technologies can attract excessive and often unprofitable investment. We develop an equilibrium model in which rational, risk-averse agents overinvest in a risky technology, possibly to the point that its expected return is negative. Overinvestment results from relative wealth concerns which arise endogenously from the imperfect tradability of future endowments. Competition over future consumption leads to an indirect utility for wealth with “keeping up with the Joneses” properties that can induce herding. Because overinvestment increases with the risk of the technology, our model can explain why new, risky technological innovations may promote investment bubbles.     

Data Fixation and the Use of Traditional Versus Activity-Based Costing Systems

An important debate in the contemporary accounting literature relates to the relative merits of activity-based versus volume-based product costing methodologies. Traditional volume-based costing systems are said to be flawed and may seriously mislead strategic decision making. Such arguments assume that decision makers use such information in an unproblematic way. This article reports on an experiment designed to investigate whether decision makers are able to overcome data fixation in a setting involving the use of product cost information. In response to criticisms of previous accounting studies of data fixation, subjects received some feedback after each decision, and were rewarded based on performance. The experiment involved subjects making a series of production output decisions based on detailed case information of a hypothetical firm facing different market conditions for each decision. A between-subjects design was utilized with two cost system treatments: activity-based costing (ABC) and traditional costing (TC). It was hypothesized that the group provided with ABC cost data would make 'optimal' decisions and the group provided with TC cost data would overcome fixation. The results of the experiment indicated that there was, in general, evidence of data fixation among TC subjects, but a small number of subjects did adjust to ABC costs. These results are discussed in the light of previous research and some future directions are outlined.