Long Standing Friendship Continuous Cooperation

This year we celebrate the 55th anniversary of the establishment of dipomatic relations between China and Romania. As a friendly country, having long-term relations with China, what kind of economic cooperation exists between the two nations? What are the incentives that made the trade volume highly rated in the recent years, particularly this year? Which are the perspectives of the Sino-Romanian relationship? With those questions, the reporters have interviewed H.E. Ambassador Viorel Isticioaia-Budura, Ambassador of Romania to China.     

China and Egypt:More Cooperation Brings Prosperous Future--Interview with H.E.Ali El-Hefny,Ambassador of Egypt to China

Q:With long history and outstanding cultural achievements, China and Egypt have good cooperation in politics,economy, tourism, and education. Focusing on economy, what complementarities do you think our two countries have? What kind of potentials could be discovered and in which aspects could we enhance economic and trade cooperation?     

Dynamics of the federal funds target rate: a nonstationary discrete choice approach

We apply a discrete choice approach to model the empirical behaviour of the Federal Reserve in changing the federal funds target rate, the benchmark of short‐term market interest rates in the US. Our methods allow the explanatory variables to be nonstationary as well as stationary. This feature is particularly useful in the present application as many economic fundamentals that are monitored by the Fed and are believed to affect decisions to adjust interest rate targets display some nonstationarity over time. The chosen model successfully predicts the majority of the target rate changes during the time period considered (1994–2001) and helps to explain strings of similar intervention decisions by the Fed. Based on the model‐implied optimal interest rate, our findings suggest that there is a lag in the Fed's reaction to economic shocks during this period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

公司治理结构中经营者盈余管理的博弈分析

本文从经营者与监督者之间的博弈模型入手,讨论了公司治理结构对盈余管理的影响,并在分析了我国目前的公司治理结构存在的问题后,提出了一些措施,最后给出了研究建议。     

The quality of cooking oil used in informal food processing in Malawi: a preliminary study

A survey was conducted in Lilongwe city urban markets in Malawi, to assess the quality of cooking oil used for frying potato chips. Purposive sampling was performed to come up with respondents who were using vegetable oils. A stratified random sampling was used to select the 32 informal food processors who were interviewed using a structured questionnaire. Oil samples were collected from the most commonly used brand of oil. Fifteen respondents were selected and these were divided into three categories of five: those who were not reusing the oil, those who were reusing the oil and those who were preparing potato chips and chicken in the same oil, for chemical analysis. The preliminary results showed that while the majority (59.4%) of the informal food processors discarded the oil after 1 day, 3.1% discarded it after 4 days and another 12.5% after 3 days. A larger proportion of the respondents (40.6%) used the leftover oils at home, 37.5% kept it in oil bottles, 3.1% kept it in plastic papers for reuse the following day. Also, most respondents (57%) indicated dark colour as the sign of oil deterioration, 29% discarded the oil after noticing foam formation while 8.2% and 6.1% said they discarded the oil after noticing a bad smell and food absorbing the oils respectively. A physical observation of the various oils showed that for most of the respondents (34%), the oils were dark brown in colour, in 22%, the oils were slightly dark brown and 16%, the oils were brown. Foam formation was noticed in 13% of the respondents. It was also noted that 91% of the respondents had not been trained or briefed of food quality and safety issues. A chemical analysis of the oils showed high values of free fatty acids (range, 0.84–1.4112 compared with 0.42 in the fresh oil) and peroxide values (range 14.7–16.6 compared with 9.0 in the fresh oil). It may be concluded that the oils being used by the informal food processors in Malawi are of poor quality and so the foods cooked in them may be a health hazard to the consumers and the processors themselves. Although this work in ongoing, it may be recommended at the outset that the health department of the city assemblies should inspect these oils for the good health of the consumers.     

纽约股票市场对中国A股市场的影响

首先，本文考察了纽约股市波动对中国A股市场的影响。一般认为，中国的A股市场由于严格的资本控制而免受外国影响。但是，通过月度、每周、每日的样本数据（1992年到2004年），经过季节性调整和汇率变动调整后，我们发现上海和深圳A股市场的变动与美国股票价格指数变动相一致。其次，我们考察国家贝塔值（country beta）在马尔可夫转换误差修正模型中的动态关系。对中国市场来说，国家贝塔值和错误纠正项的重要性紧密相连。在东亚金融危机之前，美国市场对中国A股市场的影响普遍存在，而东亚金融危机产生后，则是通过国家贝塔值来影响中国股市的收益。     

Real Estate Valuation Models: Lender and Equity Investor Criteria

The use of valuation models that focus on lender criteria has been growing in the appraisal field. In the rush to build lender criteria into real estate valuation models, equity investor criteria, expectations, and requirements occasionally have been ignored. The specific criteria considered in this paper are the loan-to-value ratio and the debt coverage ratio for lenders and the equity dividend rate for equity investors. Each of these three criteria may be a binding constraint on value.
Graphical analysis provides a framework within which major real estate valuation models (i.e., Ellwood, McLaughlin, Gettel, Lusht-Zerbst, and Steele) are compared. A new valuation model (i.e., the Cannaday-Colwell model) is developed which utilizes the equity dividend rate.
The three definitional models (i.e., McLaughlin, Gettel, and Steele) are found to be relevant only by mere coincidence. Each of these models simultaneously considers two of the three key criteria, completely eliminating the possibility of consideration of anything else; i.e., the models become tautological.
It is shown that the discounted cash flow based models (i.e., Ellwood, Lusht-Zerbst, and Cannaday-Colwell) each tell one-third of the story. One of these models will be relevant depending upon whether the binding constraint is the maximum loan-to-value ratio, the minimum debt coverage ratio, or the minimum equity dividend rate. The relevant model is the one that yields the lowest value estimate of the three.     

衍生品保证金计算的国际经验比较

随着国内金融衍生品市场的逐渐兴起，投资机构、交易所和证券监管部门等将面临越来越复杂投资组合的风险管理问题。目前国际上各交易所广泛使用的两大保证金系统是SPAN系统和TIMS系统。本文对这两大系统的计算原理进行了归纳和梳理，并就各自的优缺点进行了比较，以期对国内金融衍生品的保证金设计和风险管理提供借鉴。     

Price uncertainty and the effect of capital costs in a point in-point out inventory investment

This paper analyzes a point in-point out inventory investment under price uncertainty. The optimal quantity is determined by maximizing the expected value of the investor's risk preference function, which is a function of profit. Using an exponential risk preference function, the adjustment in the optimal quantity stemming from a change in the interest rate is investigated. The main conclusion is that the sign of the adjustment depends both on how profit is expressed and on the type of price distribution applied. Contrary to what is assumed in conventional managerial control practices, a rise in the interest rate might lead to an increase in the optimal quantity when present value serves as a measure of profit.