Earnings management surrounding CEO changes

This paper investigates the extent of earnings management in the periods surrounding CEO changes by Australian firms. Evidence is presented of incoming CEOs undertaking earnings management to reduce income in the year of CEO change, with abnormal and extraordinary items being the primary vehicle through which this is achieved. This result is consistent with the notion of new CEOs engaging in an 'earnings bath', and is strongest for non–routine CEO changes, where the opportunities to manage earnings are greatest. Extending prior work, classification of CEO changes as routine or non–routine is based on an expanded information search, and this provides insights into the CEO change process and identifies problems with simpler mechanistic classification methods. Additionally, detailed information of the operation of the modified Jones model for estimating expected accruals is presented, and this is consistent with such models having low explanatory power in identifying abnormal accruals.     

The Fiction of Neutral Inflation

Though less frequent with the years, intermittent calls for 'reflation' to stimulate the economy can occasionally still be heard from Keynesian economists and politicians. Eli Schwartz, Professor of Economics at Leghigh University, Pennsylvania, examines the effects of inflation, anticipated and unanticipated, on participants in the economy. Professor Schwartz argues that, in spite of the short-term political benefits, the longer-term costs are so high that less myopic politicians may perceive the electoral advantages in tackling inflation.     

The need for skills in the factory of the future

The 'automated factory' as the culmination of ingenuity has fascinated engineers and social visionaries (albeit for different reasons) for a considerable period. This article discusses the skill requirements of advanced automated production.     

On pricing kernels and finite-state variable Heath Jarrow Morton models

Once a pricing kernel is established, bond prices and all other interest rate claims can be computed. Alternatively, the pricing kernel can be deduced from observed prices of bonds and selected interest rate claims. Examples of the former approach include the celebrated Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985b) model and the more recent model of Constantinides (1992). Examples of the latter include the Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) model and the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton paradigm (1992) (hereafter HJM). In general, these latter models are not Markov. Fortunately, when suitable restrictions are imposed on the class of volatility structures of forward rates, then finite-state variable HJM models do emerge. This article provides a linkage between the finite-state variable HJM models, which use observables to induce a pricing kernel, and the alternative approach, which proceeds directly to price after a complete specification of a pricing kernel. Given such linkages, we are able to explicitly reveal the relationship between state-variable models, such as Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross, and the finite-state variable HJM models. In particular, our analysis identifies the unique map between the set of investor forecasts about future levels of the drift of the pricing kernel and the manner by which these forecasts are revised, to the shape of the term structure and its volatility. For an economy with square root innovations, the exact mapping is made transparent.