STOCK MARKET REACTION TO GOOD AND BAD INFLATION NEWS

This article shows that differentiating between good and bad inflation news is important to understanding how inflation affects stock market returns. Summing positive and negative inflation shocks as in previous studies tends to wash out or mute the effects of inflation news on stock returns. More specifically, we find that, depending on the economic state, positive and negative inflation shocks can produce a variety of stock market reactions. We conclude that the effect of inflation on stock returns is conditional on whether investors perceive inflation shocks as good or bad news in different economic states.     

Term structure modelling of defaultable bonds

In this paper we present a model of the development of the term structure of defaultable interest rates that is based on a multiple-defaults model. Instead of modelling a cash payoff in default we assume that defaulted debt is restructured and continues to be traded.The term structure of defaultable bond prices is represented in terms of defaultable forward rates similar to the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) (Heath et al., 1992) approach, and conditions are given under which the dynamics of these rates are arbitrage-free. These conditions are a drift restriction that is closely related to the HJM drift restriction for risk-free bonds, and the restriction that the defaultable short rate must always be not below the risk-free short rate. In its most general version the model is set in a marked point process framework, to allow for jumps in the defaultable rates at times of default.Financial Assistance by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, Sonderforschungsbereich 303, at the University of Bonn and the DAAD is gratefully acknowledged.I thank Pierre Mella-Barral, David Lando and David Webb for helpful conversations, and the participants of the FMG Conference on Defaultable Bonds (March 1997) in London and the QMF 97 conference in Cairns for helpful comments. All errors are of course my own.     

Blanket guarantee,deposit insurance and restructuring decisions for multinational banks

This paper examines blanket guarantee, deposit insurance and restructuring decisions with respect to a multinational bank (MNB) using Nash bargaining when the threat of a bank panic motivates countries to make decisions quickly. Failure of the bank would unevenly distribute externalities across countries, influencing the restructuring incentives. In equilibrium, the bank is either liquidated or one of the countries – or both – recapitalizes it. A partition of the recapitalization costs is sensitive to the country-specific benefits and costs from recapitalization, panic and liquidation. The home regulator benefits from the advantage that it is the only entity that can legally liquidate the MNB. Rational expectations regarding the bargaining result affect the incentives to declare a blanket guarantee.     

Explorations in intercultural work integrated learning: Educational process for a Topsy-Turvy world

This paper investigates how work integrated learning (WIL) can be re-imagined/re-enacted as collaborative playgrounds of networks. To do this we first establish the working context for these reflections by exploring fragments of biography and the immediate catalyst which was a recent seminar held over 5 days, beginning in the rural Swedish town of Ed and, for the last 2 days, at University West in Trollhättan. We then set out to explore the normative and theoretical context of our approach before finally moving to an exploration of the concept of WIL via CLA and scenarios. Our overall goal is to describe some features of an expanded concept of WIL as it relates to intercultural learning. In doing this we hope to generate processes that facilitate the kind of learning necessary if we are to enable teachers and students to build sustainable futures they can realistically aspire to.     

Why does sovereign risk differ for domestic and external debt? Evidence from Scandinavia, 1938–1948

This study shows empirically that the political costs of sovereign default can differ considerably for domestic and external debt. The analysis uses new evidence from Danish and Swedish bond markets around World War II, a time when markets went from being fully integrated to fully segmented overnight. By linking the exogenous wartime shocks to changes in default costs on domestic and external debt, it is found that these costs explain a significant part of the variation in the sovereign yield spread across markets. The results suggest that governments can choose strategically on which debt, the domestic or the external, to default on, and that this decision hinges on the relative size of the political default costs.     

Model-independent bounds for option prices—a mass transport approach

In this paper we investigate model-independent bounds for exotic options written on a risky asset using infinite-dimensional linear programming methods. Based on arguments from the theory of Monge–Kantorovich mass transport, we establish a dual version of the problem that has a natural financial interpretation in terms of semi-static hedging. In particular we prove that there is no duality gap.