Bayesian Modelling of Outstanding Liabilities Incorporating Claim Count Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper deals with the prediction of the amount of outstanding automobile claims that an insurance company will pay in the near future. We consider various competing models using Bayesian theory and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Claim counts are used to add a further hierarchical stage in the model with log-normally distributed claim amounts and its corresponding state space version. This way, we incorporate information from both the outstanding claim amounts and counts data resulting in new model formulations. Implementation details and illustrations with real insurance data are provided.     

The Effectiveness of Public Assistance Payments in Reducing Poverty

A bstract . This study investigates the effectiveness of income transfer in reducing poverty in the U.S.A It does so by applying the concepts of set theory to the population segments in poverty and under public assistance. The extent of their intersection versus either subset, i.e. , their conditional probability, as well as the extent of either of the non-intersected segments of the union versus the respective subset, are shown to be reliable indicators of this effectiveness. The last two segments, representing errors of "omission" or of "commission," are analyzed for their uniform patterns by type of residence and race . Probable reasons for their occurrence are discussed, and certain limitations of the used data are examined.     

Different orders of one-sided scale elasticities in multi-output production

In this paper we explore properties of different orders of one-sided scale elasticities in multi-input multi-output production using the theoretical framework developed by Hadjicostas and Soteriou (Eur J Oper Res 168:425–449, 2006), Krivonozhko et al. (J Oper Res Soc 55:1049–1058, 2004), and others. That framework includes as a special case the well-known operations research method of data envelopment analysis (DEA). A special case of the theory in this paper is the Banker-Morey (Oper Res 34:513–521, 1986a) DEA model for data that include both discretionary and non-discretionary inputs and outputs. Several inequalities among different orders of one-sided scale elasticities are presented. An example is used to illustrate many of the results and ideas of the paper. Finally, we show how the theory and results of this paper can be used to shed some light on implicit Hicks input technical change.     

Politics and Insurgencies

The article provides an analytical approach to capturing the population‐centric view of insurgency and allows for the inclusion of politics in describing its earliest stages. The outcome of the politico‐military contest over population support now becomes not only a function of the proposed governing policies of the two contestants, the government and insurgents, but also a function of such factors as the sensitivity of the population to the proposed policies and efforts of the two parties, the effectiveness of their mobilization efforts, and the strategic value of the region to insurgents. We also look at two different scenarios in which the government can and cannot mobilize against the insurgency and establish conditions in which a government may actually choose not to mobilize against a possible domestic threat. We also determine conditions under which insurgents may engage in less rent extraction than the government in order to increase their chances of gaining population support.