CLASSIFYING MONETARY ECONOMICS: FIELDS AND METHODS FROM PAST TO FUTURE

Abstract We propose a simple, yet sufficiently encompassing, classification scheme of monetary economics. It comprises three fundamental fields and six recent areas that expand within and across these fields. The elements of our scheme are not found together and in their mutual relationships in earlier studies of the relevant literature; neither does this attempt aim to produce a relatively complete systematization. Our intention in taking stock is not finality or exhaustiveness. We rather suggest a viewpoint and a possible ordering of the accumulating knowledge. Our purpose is to promote discussion on the evolving nature and internal consistency of monetary economics at large.     

Effects of agency risks and procedural justice on board processes in venture capital-backed firms

This paper builds a model of the effects of agency risk and procedural justice in the boards of directors of venture capital-backed firms. Such boards are unique in that they consist of managers and outside owners with significant power and incentive to be highly involved in venture governance. The authors integrate agency theory and procedural justice perspectives to develop propositions regarding the effects of agency risk and board processes on the responses to poor performance and conflicts of interest. This integrated perspective suggests that factors that increase perceived agency risks will increase outsiders' tendency to focus efforts on monitoring and controlling board decisions and their propensity to resort to formal means to resolve conflicts. However, the authors suggest that through their effects on trust and positive attributions, fair procedures and interactions will reduce these tendencies. A discussion of the practical and theoretical implications of the proposed model concludes the paper.     

Amenities and Fringe Benefits: Omitted Variable Bias

ABSTRACT If labor is fairly mobile, as it is in the United States, one would expect that households would move from less desirable areas toward more desirable areas until all areas are equally desirable. The way that areas become equally desirable is through the impact of movers on wages and rents (and possibly endogenous disamenities, such as congestion or pollution). That is, as people move to desirable areas, they will increase the demand for land (raising rents) and increase the supply of labor (lowering wages); in equilibrium, the wage and rent compensation for the niceness of an area reveals, in dollar terms, just how nice the area is. Blomquist, Berger, and Hoehn 1988 demonstrated the empirical importance of such amenity compensation in estimates of the quality-of-life in urban areas. However, those authors were unable to include fringe benefits, which are about 40 percent of explicit wage payments, in their wage compensation. This matters greatly as amenities are seen here to be even more important than previously thought and the regional implications are pronounced, with the West and Southeast looking better when fringe benefits are included and the East North Central and Northeast looking substantially worse.     

Real interest rate linkages in the Pacific-Basin region

This paper examines the linkage of real interest rates of a group of Pacific-Basin countries with a focus on East Asia. We consider monthly real interest rates of US, Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Thailand from 1980 to 2006. The impulse response analysis and half-life estimation are conducted in a multivariate setting, adopting the bias-corrected bootstrap as a means of statistical inference. It is found that the degree of capital market integration has increased after the Asian financial crisis in 1997. The overall evidence suggests that the crisis has substantially changed the nature of the short run interactions among the real interest rates. Before the crisis, both the US and Japanese capital markets dominated the region. After the crisis, the dominance of the Japanese market has completely disappeared, while the US market remains as a sole dominant player and the Korean market has become more influential.     

Estimating Transition Probabilities from a Time Series of Independent Cross Sections

This paper considers the implementation of a nonstationary, heterogeneous Markov model for the analysis of a binary dependent variable in a time series of independent cross sections. The model, previously considered by M offitt (1993), offers the opportunity to estimate entry and exit transition probabilities and to examine the effects of time-constant and time-varying covariates on the hazards. We show how ML estimates of the parameters can be obtained by Fisher's method-of-scoring and how to estimate both fixed and time-varying covariate effects. The model is exemplified with an analysis of the labor force participation decision of Dutch women using data from the Socio-economic Panel (SEP) study conducted in the Netherlands between 1986 and 1995. We treat the panel data as independent cross sections and compare the employment status sequences predicted by the model with the observed sequences in the panel. Some open problems concerning the application of the model are also discussed.     

On forecasting cointegrated seasonal time series

We analyze periodic and seasonal cointegration models for bivariate quarterly observed time series in an empirical forecasting study. We include both single equation and multiple equation methods for those two classes of models. A VAR model in first differences, with and without cointegration restrictions, and a VAR model in annual differences are also included in the analysis, where they serve as benchmark models. Our empirical results indicate that the VAR model in first differences without cointegration is best if one-step ahead forecasts are considered. For longer forecast horizons however, the VAR model in annual differences is better. When comparing periodic versus seasonal cointegration models, we find that the seasonal cointegration models tend to yield better forecasts. Finally, there is no clear indication that multiple equations methods improve on single equation methods.     

Contesting rural recreation: the battle over access to Windermere

Different forms of recreation are competing increasingly for space to operate, and arbitrating between these competing claims can be fraught with difficulties. This paper examines the recent conflict over attempts to impose a speed limit, and hence prevent power boating and associated activities, on Windermere in the English Lake District. The competing arguments, as presented to a public inquiry, are assessed in the light of the Inspector's verdict on these issues, and the political responses to the verdict. The case is likely to have a much wider significance in terms of land use planning policy in Britain, both in National Parks and rural areas more generally.     

Research returns redux: a meta-analysis of the returns to agricultural R&D

A total of 289 studies of returns to agricultural R&D were compiled and these provide 1821 estimates of rates of return. After removing statistical outliers and incomplete observations, across the remaining 1128 observations the estimated annual rates of return averaged 65 per cent overall — 80 per cent for research only, 80 per cent for extension only, and 47 per cent for research and extension combined. These averages reveal little meaningful information from a large body of literature, which provides rate-of-return estimates that are often not directly comparable. This study was aimed at trying to account for the differences. Several features of the methods used by research evaluators matter, in particular assumptions about lag lengths and the nature of the research-induced supply shift.