An estimated fiscal Taylor Rule for the postwar United States

This paper estimates a multi-instrument fiscal Taylor Rule for the United States. Taxes and purchases both respond strongly to deficits, while transfers do not. Taxes are procyclical; purchases are acyclical; and transfers are countercyclical. These estimates appear stable over time.     

Why is the teen birth rate in the United States so high and why does it matter?

Teens in the United States are far more likely to give birth than in any other industrialized country in the world. U.S. teens are two and a half times as likely to give birth as compared to teens in Canada, around four times as likely as teens in Germany or Norway, and almost 10 times as likely as teens in Switzerland. Among more developed countries, Russia has the next highest teen birth rate after the United States, but an American teenage girl is still around 25 percent more likely to give birth than her counterpart in Russia. Moreover, these statistics incorporate the almost 40 percent fall in the teen birth rate that the United States has experienced over the past two decades. Differences across U.S. states are quite dramatic as well. A teenage girl in Mississippi is four times more likely to give birth than a teenage girl in New Hampshire--and 15 times more likely to give birth as a teen compared to a teenage girl in Switzerland. This paper has two overarching goals: understanding why the teen birth rate is so high in the United States and understanding why it matters. Thus, we begin by examining multiple sources of data to put current rates of teen childbearing into the perspective of cross-country comparisons and recent historical context. We examine teen birth rates alongside pregnancy, abortion, and "shotgun" marriage rates as well as the antecedent behaviors of sexual activity and contraceptive use. We seek insights as to why the rate of teen childbearing is so unusually high in the United States as a whole, and in some U.S. states in particular. We argue that explanations that economists have tended to study are unable to account for any sizable share of the variation in teen childbearing rates across place. We describe some recent empirical work demonstrating that variation in income inequality across U.S. states and developed countries can explain a sizable share of the geographic variation in teen childbearing. To the extent that income inequality is associated with a lack of economic opportunity and heightened social marginalization for those at the bottom of the distribution, this empirical finding is potentially consistent with the ideas that other social scientists have been promoting for decades but which have been largely untested with large data sets and standard econometric methods. Our reading of the totality of evidence leads us to conclude that being on a low economic trajectory in life leads many teenage girls to have children while they are young and unmarried and that poor outcomes seen later in life (relative to teens who do not have children) are simply the continuation of the original low economic trajectory. That is, teen childbearing is explained by the low economic trajectory but is not an additional cause of later difficulties in life. Surprisingly, teen birth itself does not appear to have much direct economic consequence. Moreover, no silver bullet such as expanding access to contraception or abstinence education will solve this particular social problem. Our view is that teen childbearing is so high in the United States because of underlying social and economic problems. It reflects a decision among a set of girls to "drop-out" of the economic mainstream; they choose non-marital motherhood at a young age instead of investing in their own economic progress because they feel they have little chance of advancement. This thesis suggests that to address teen childbearing in America will require addressing some difficult social problems: in particular, the perceived and actual lack of economic opportunity among those at the bottom of the economic ladder.     

Political economy of climate change, ecological destruction and uneven development

The purpose of this paper is to analyze climate change and ecological destruction through the prism of the core general principles of political economy. The paper starts with the principle of historical specificity, and the various waves of climate change through successive cooler and warmer periods on planet Earth, including the most recent climate change escalation through the open circuit associated with the treadmill of production. Then we scrutinize the principle of contradiction associated with the disembedded economy, social costs, entropy and destructive creation. The principle of uneven development is then explored through core-periphery dynamics, ecologically unequal exchange, metabolic rift and asymmetric global (in)justice. The principles of circular and cumulative causation (CCC) and uncertainty are then related to climate change dynamics through non-linear transformations, complex interaction of dominant variables, and threshold effects. Climate change and ecological destruction are impacting on most areas, especially the periphery, earlier and more intensely than previously thought likely. A political economy approach to climate change is able to enrich the analysis of ecological economics and put many critical themes in a broad context.     

Top Executive Pay in the United Kingdom: A Corporate Governance Dilemma

This study represents a first attempt in the UK literature to split total pay into salary, annual bonus and share options for the purpose of empirically verifying how each is related to executive performance. As predicted from earlier studies on total pay, salaries were found primarily determined by firm size. Contarary to prior research, however, our findings suggest a pronounced link does exist between performance and pay over both the short- and long-term. This is manifested particularly by the magnitude of the coefficient estimates found between changes in shareholders return and changes in executive share options. This finding strongly suggests that the leverage executives achieve, on average, in their rewards as share prices increase may well be substantial; a finding that has not been captured in previous research on executive remuneration and which is of considerable relevance to the current corporate governance debates.     

Balancing the trade-off between learning prospects and spillover risks: MNC subsidiaries’ vertical linkage patterns in developed countries

This paper investigates local vertical linkages of foreign subsidiaries and the dual role of such linkages as conduits for learning as well as potential channels for spillovers to competitors. On the basis of data from 97 subsidiaries, we analyze the quality of such linkages under varying levels of competition and subsidiary capabilities. Our theoretical development and the results from the analysis document a far more complex and dynamic relationship between levels of competition and MNCs’ local participation in knowledge intensive activities, i.e. learning and spillovers, than previous studies do. We find a curvilinear relationship between the extent of competitive pressure and the quality of local linkages confirming our argument of a trade-off between learning prospects and spillover risks. Furthermore, the level of subsidiary capabilities moderates this relationship.     

Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Panels with Incidental Trends

It is shown that the maximum likelihood estimator of a local to unity parameter can be consistently estimated with panel data when the cross-section observations are independent. Consistency applies when there are no deterministic trends or when there is a homogeneous deterministic trend in the panel model. When there are heterogeneous deterministic trends the panel MLE of the local to unity parameter is inconsistent. This outcome provides a new instance of inconsistent ML estimation in dynamic panels, and, unlike earlier results of this type, applies when both T →∞ and N →∞.     

农产品讨价还价行为：尼日利亚奥甘州牛肉零售定价案例研究

对市场上的商品缺乏标准的度量和分级是发展中国家（如尼日利亚）农产品市场的一个主要特征。由此导致价格标签很少被使用，事实上也很难实施。在尼日利亚的大部分地区，农产品和非农产品的批发和零售价格都是由激烈的讨价还价所决定的。分级和商品质量的随意性，意味着价格可能无意地被一些不相干的因素影响。在尼日利亚商品交换过程的研究方面，很少有对商品讨价还价行为进行实证研究的。本文的主要研究目的在于：①从市场期间、买方特征和性别等方面，比较牛肉零售价格的形成方式；②估计牛肉价格形成与所考虑的决定因素之间的关系。研究在四个独立的城市市场进行，研究结果表明，针对不同性别的买方，买方价格和卖方价格的形成方式没有差异；针对不同着装的买方（特征），在讨价还价中的方式也没有差异；但讨价还价的时间在统计上则显著影响。统计上来看，多数零售价格变量的平均值早晨比晚上较大。     

Morgan Systems,Inc.: Application of Six Sigma to the finance function

This teaching case is based on a Six Sigma project undertaken by a subsidiary of a Fortune 100 company to improve its quarterly financial-reporting process. It is presented as a six-phase Problem-Based Learning (PBL) unfolding problem. The first five phases correspond to the stages of the Define–Measure–Analyze–Improve–Control (DMAIC) model, a process-improvement methodology used extensively in Six Sigma. The sixth phase focuses on Six Sigma as a way of doing business.