Analyzing credit risk transmission to the nonfinancial sector in Europe: A network approach

We use a factor model and elastic net shrinkage to model a high-dimensional network of European credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Our empirical approach allows us to assess the joint transmission of bank and sovereign risk to the nonfinancial corporate sector. Our findings identify a sectoral clustering in the CDS network, where financial institutions are in the center and nonfinancial entities as well as sovereigns are grouped around the financial center. The network has a geographical component reflected in different patterns of real-sector risk transmission across countries. Our framework also provides dynamic estimates of risk transmission, a useful tool for systemic risk monitoring.     

Export survival and the dynamics of experience

This paper focuses on developing countries’ pioneer exports to the OECD and obtains several important results on export dynamics, linking export experience and export survival. Using product level data at the SITC 5-digit level for 114 developing countries over the 1962–2009 period, we show that prior export experience obtained in non-OECD markets significantly increases survival of pioneer exports toward the OECD. The experience does not need to last long, as gaining experience for more than two years does not confer any additional benefit. The effect of experience depreciates rapidly with time: a break in export experience prior to entering the OECD reduces the advantage on survival. Finally, the role of prior export experience is particularly relevant for survival in the first two years upon entry into the OECD. The geographic dynamic of export experience reveals that experience is acquired in neighboring, easy to access markets before reaching more distant, richer partners and ultimately serving the OECD with a higher probability of survival.     

In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy in the Euro Area

This paper applies the DSGE‐VAR methodology to assess the size of fiscal multipliers in the data and the relative contributions of two transmission mechanisms of government spending shocks, namely hand‐to‐mouth consumers and Edgeworth complementarity. Econometric experiments show that a DSGE model with Edgeworth complementarity is a better representation of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy as it yields dynamic responses close to those obtained with the flexible DSGE‐VAR model (i.e. an impact output multiplier larger than one and a crowding‐in of private consumption). The estimated share of hand‐to‐mouth consumers is too small to replicate the positive response of private consumption. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Recentralization as an Alternative to Urban Dispersion: Transformative Planning in a Neoliberal Societal Context

Growing dissatisfaction with the prevailing dispersed urban form and its generalized reliance on the automobile has resulted in the formulation of planning models seeking to substitute dispersed development with recentralization. A survey of 301 planning documents with a metropolitan focus, originating from the 58 US and Canadian urban regions with a population exceeding one million, reveals widespread support for urban recentralization. But interviews with 55 planners, involved in the preparation of these plans and/or the implementation of their proposals, highlight actual and foreseen barriers to the implementation of recentralization strategies. The article interprets the popularity of recentralization in planning documents as the outcome of planners' attempts to reconcile their commitment to sustainable development with societal factors affecting planning possibilities. Still, we anticipate serious problems in achieving large‐scale recentralization due to urban development path dependencies emanating from the prevailing urban form and dynamics, institutional structures, and from the limited urban transformative potential afforded by neoliberalism.     

(Not So) Easy Come, (Still) Easy Go? Footloose Multinationals Revisited

The central question of this paper is to test whether multinational firms (MNFs) are more likely to exit the local market than domestic firms. Using firm‐level data for Belgium, we estimate a random effects probit model taking into account the endogeneity of firm size, total factor productivity (TFP) and sunk costs in firm exit. Our results highlight two features of the ‘footloose’ nature of MNFs. First, controlling for firm and sector characteristics, the exit probability of MNFs is larger than that of domestic firms. Second, MNFs have a lower sensitivity to TFP and size than do domestic firms. This means that an improvement in economic performance on the local market will not prevent a multinational from closing its local plant as much as it would for a domestic firm.     

Is a Policy of Free Movement of Workers Sustainable?

In this paper, we study the costs and benefits of the adoption of a policy of free movement of workers. For countries to agree on uncontrolled movements of workers, short‐run costs must be outweighed by the long‐term benefits of better labor‐market flexibility and income smoothing. We show that such a policy is less likely to be adopted when workers are more impatient and less risk‐averse, when production technologies display stronger decreasing returns, and when countries trade a significant share of their products.     

Working towards sincere encounters in volunteer tourism: an ethnographic examination of key management issues at a Nordic eco-village

This article explores host–guest dynamics at Sólheimar eco-village, Iceland to contribute to the conceptualization of transformative learning in volunteer tourism. At the eco-village, the host and volunteers come together to share similar goals and meaningful experiences. This interaction gets complicated, however: the eco-village exists within the global capitalist system and must operate using market norms. The idealist and educational expectations of the volunteers often clash with the practical short-term goals of the community: there are also cultural and experiential differences between the parties. This clash is used to discuss the importance of sincerity in volunteer tourism at the eco-village. Data were collected through fieldwork, primarily including participant observations and interviews, to help interpret the patterns of behaviors and perceptions of both parties in relation to the aim. Ultimately, the experience that binds host and guests cannot solely be about learning to do things alternatively and sustainably; it requires sincerity, using Taylor's 2001 sincerity concept, to tackle the difficulties in working alternatively and sustainably to attain this experience. It is argued that transformative learning during the volunteer experience in alternative spaces should be conceptualized to include the promotion of sincere encounters, and adjusted to concern both the host and its guests.     

EXPLAINING THE SPREAD OF TEMPORARY JOBS AND ITS IMPACT ON LABOR TURNOVER

This article provides a simple model that explains the choice between permanent and temporary jobs. This model, which incorporates important features of actual employment protection legislations neglected by the economic literature so far, reproduces the main stylized facts about entries into permanent and temporary jobs observed in Continental European countries. We find that job protection has very small effects on total employment but induces large substitution of temporary jobs for permanent jobs, which significantly reduces aggregate production.     

ON‐THE‐JOB SEARCH,PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS,AND THE INDIVIDUAL EARNINGS PROCESS*

Individual labor earnings observed in worker panel data have complex, highly persistent dynamics. We investigate the capacity of a structural job search model with on‐the‐job search, wage renegotiation by mutual consent, and i.i.d. productivity shocks to replicate salient properties of these dynamics, such as the covariance structure of earnings, the evolution of individual earnings mean, and variance with the duration of uninterrupted employment, or the distribution of year‐to‐year earnings changes. Structural estimation of our model on a 12‐year panel of highly educated British workers shows that our simple framework produces a dynamic earnings structure that is remarkably consistent with the data.