Influence Allocation Methods in Group Decision Support Systems

Influence allocation processes are voting and opinion aggregating methods that allow members to distribute some or all of their decision making influence to others in the group in order to exploit not only the group's knowledge of the alternatives, but its knowledge of itself. Only with the common use of group decision support systems (GDSS) has their use become practical. In this paper we reconsider SPAN, an influence allocation process introduced by MacKinnon (1966a). Experimental comparison shows SPAN to be significantly better at selecting a correct option from a set of options than two common voting methods. An alternative influence allocation process that we call RCON (Rational Consensus), is based on a weighting method proposed by DeGroot (1974) and has been explicated as a normative standard for combining opinion by Lehrer and Wagner (1981). The judgmental inputs to SPAN would appear to be logically related to those for RCON. Submitting the SPAN inputs from the experiment, transformed in this logical way, to the RCON process results in somewhat better performance than with SPAN. However, evidence indicated that the two methods are conceptually and psychologically sufficiently different that an experimental comparison is needed between them.     

Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework

This paper presents a macroeconomic approach to monitoring progress toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) in Sub‐Saharan Africa. At the heart of our framework is a macro model which captures key linkages between foreign aid, public investment (disaggregated into education, infrastructure and health), the supply side and poverty. The model is then linked through cross‐country regressions to indicators of malnutrition, infant mortality, life expectancy and access to safe water. A composite MDG Indicator is also calculated. The functioning of our framework is illustrated by simulating the impact of an increase in foreign aid to Niger at the MDG horizon of 2015, under alternative assumptions about the degree of efficiency of public investment. Our approach can serve as the building block for Strategy Papers for Human Development (SPAHD), a more encompassing concept than the current ‘Poverty Reduction’ Strategy Papers.     

A TEST OF A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM STOCK OPTION PRICING MODEL

An empirical version of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985a) call option pricing model is derived, assuming execution price uncertainty in the options market. the pricing restrictions come in the form of moment conditions in the option pricing error. These can be estimated and tested using a version of the method of simulated moments (MSM). Simulation estimates, obtained by discretely approximating the risk-neutral processes of the underlying stock price and the interest rate, are substituted for analytically unknown call prices. the asymptotics and other aspects of the MSM estimator are discussed. the model is tested on transaction prices at 15-minute intervals. It substantially outperforms the Black-Scholes model. the empirical success of the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model implies that the continuous-time interest rate implicit in synchronous transaction quotes of 90-day Treasury-bill futures contracts is an-albeit noisy-proxy for the instantaneous volatility on common stock. the process of the instantaneous volatility is found to be close to nonstationary. It is well approximated by a heteroskedastic unit-root process. With this approximation, the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross model only slightly overprices long-maturity options.     

Electronic mail — French perspective

Round Table on Electronic Mail, organized by the French Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales sur les Télécommunications, Paris, France, 29 November 1977.     

Perceived benefits of loyalty programs: Scale development and implications for relational strategies

Positive outcomes of loyalty programs are clear for firms, yet little research examines customer perceptions. To address this gap, this article investigates various perceived benefits of loyalty programs using a multi-benefit framework based on utilitarian, hedonic, and relationship literature. Two quantitative studies, involving 658 French members of loyalty programs, provide a 16-item scale that measures five types of perceived benefits: monetary savings, exploration, entertainment, recognition, and social benefits. The five dimensions have different impacts on satisfaction with the program, loyalty to the program, and perceived relationship investment of the firm. This article offers a discussion of the theoretical and managerial implications of these findings for relationship marketing strategies.     

Small businesses as a research subject: Some reflections on knowledge of small businesses and its effects on economic theory

Most economists agree in their view of small and medium-sized enterprises, or small businesses (SMEs), as a marginal scientific subject. They may go so far as to ignore them, either because they think these economic units do not lend themselves to conventional economic studies — studies which, for instance, take into account the sacred cow theory of economies of scale — or because they see them as being not really different from big businesses.However, at least a few economists have recognized, first, the many characteristics differentiating SMEs from big firms, and second, their increasing importance in terms of numbers and job creation within economies. Among these few, Schumpeter was one of the first to show the importance of entrepreneurs and SMEs as the main variable of change in an economy. Simon and Lucas also explained the difference between small and big firms through the differing abilities required by managers to run them. Penrose looked at the question from another point of view by highlighting the interstices taken up by SMEs to fulfil needs that cannot be fulfilled by bigger units. Critics of the theory of economies of scale showed that such economies may be offset by a number of diseconomies, thus justifying the efficiency of many SMEs. More recently, Mills and Schumann suggested that SMEs compensate for their lack of economies of scale by their production flexibility, particularly in today's turbulent economy.The limits of traditional economic theory are clearly demonstrated by the fact that it does not take account of all these theories, concepts and ideas. It thus neglects a number of important economic phenomena, including the persistence and current expansion of SMEs. Consideration of such phenomena may lead to the development of a new economic theory based on the concepts of instability and contingency, together with the behaviour of entrepreneurs and small firms, thus tending to contradict, in particular, the concept of equilibrium in conventional economic theory.A first version of this paper has been presented as invited speaker at the symposium of TETRA Group at Lyon, France, 30–31 May 1990. I thank the colleagues Fritz Rieger, Frances Solé Parrellada, Jacques Filion and the two referees for their very interesting suggestions on a preliminary second version.     

Proactive behavior and industrial salesforce performance

Proactive behavior has been indirectly linked to effective selling, an assertion underpinned by a logic, which states that in a world of high competition and choice, the passive, reactive seller is unlikely to do as well as his or her more proactive counterpart. Yet, little direct empirical evidence exists to substantiate this link. In this paper, we address this knowledge gap by describing a study that assesses the effect of proactive behavior on the performance of an industrial sales force. The paper explores the issue of salesperson performance and the construct of proactive behavior (or proactiveness). Using the Proactive Personality (PP) Scale to measure proactiveness and the line manager's subjective evaluation to indicate salesperson performance, it was found that a small but significant relationship exists. The results are discussed, with areas for future research delineated and implications for practitioners explored.