Distribution of run statistics in partially exchangeable processes

Let { X_i} _{i 3 1}{{ X_{i}} _{igeq 1}} be an infinite sequence of recurrent partially exchangeable binary random variables. We study the exact distributions of two run statistics (total number of success runs and the longest success run) in { X_i} _{i 3 1}{{ X_{i}} _{igeq1}} . Since a flexible class of models for binary sequences can be obtained using the concept of partial exchangeability, as a special case of our results one can obtain the distribution of runs in ordinary Markov chains, exchangeable and independent sequences. The results also enable us to study the distribution of runs in particular urn models.     

Noncentral bimatrix variate generalised beta distributions

In this paper, we determine the density functions of nonsymmetrised doubly noncentral matrix variate beta type I and II distributions. The nonsymmetrised density functions of doubly noncentral and noncentral bimatrix variate generalised beta type I and II distributions are also obtained.     

Exact inference for progressively Type-I censored exponential failure data

For reasons of time constraint and cost reduction, censoring is commonly employed in practice, especially in reliability engineering. Among various censoring schemes, progressive Type-I right censoring provides not only the practical advantage of known termination time but also greater flexibility to the experimenter in the design stage by allowing for the removal of test units at non-terminal time points. In this article, we consider a progressively Type-I censored life-test under the assumption that the lifetime of each test unit is exponentially distributed. For small to moderate sample sizes, a practical modification is proposed to the censoring scheme in order to guarantee a feasible life-test under progressive Type-I censoring. Under this setup, we obtain the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the unknown mean parameter and derive the exact sampling distribution of the MLE under the condition that its existence is ensured. Using the exact distribution of the MLE as well as its asymptotic distribution and the parametric bootstrap method, we then discuss the construction of confidence intervals for the mean parameter and their performance is assessed through Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, an example is presented in order to illustrate all the methods of inference discussed here.     

Ethnic divisions and the effect of appropriative competition intensity on economic performance

This paper features a growth model with an appropriative contest and a common-pool investment game between politically organised rival ethnic factions. I determine how the long-run equilibrium coalition shapes incentives to invest, show the existence of a unique steady state, and investigate how the ease to capture rents affects economic performance. The use of numerical simulations concerning a global sample of countries demonstrates that contest intensity can sometimes be beneficial, despite wasteful grabbing behaviours, due to a mechanism related to the concentration of power. When rents become easier to capture, dominant groups have an incentive to expand their influence further. This adjustment can be beneficial as these groups contribute most to capital accumulation.     

Management in production: from unobserved to observed

Are productivity estimates good proxies for unobserved management? And, does management affect production in a neutral and monotonic fashion as assumed by these proxies? We use Bloom and Van Reenen’s management data to show that two popular proxies, fixed effects and inefficiency scores, correlate with observed management practices. We find that the correlations are positive but weak. Also, management explains only a fraction of the proxies’ variances. The data rejects the assumptions of neutrality and monotonicity. Last, our results suggest that management has characteristics both of a technology and an input.     

Measuring populist discourse with semantic text analysis: an application on grassroots populist mobilization

Populism is a concept employed to qualify the political behavior of a large number of actors at a worldwide scale, with scientists classifying the latter into populists and non-populists according to dimensions such as ideology, strategy, discourse, economic policy, and even style. This article analyzes existing schools of thought on the nature of populism and argues that conceptualizing populism as a specific type of anti-elite discourse in the name of the People is both conceptually and methodologically the most coherent and useful way to understand the phenomenon. Additionally, it suggests discarding crude, dichotomous classification in favor of a gradated view of populist mobilization by means of quantifying populist discourse and observing its spatial and temporal variation. It adds value to current methods of measurement by demonstrating why and how clause-based semantic text analysis can provide optimal quantitative results while retaining qualitative elements for mixed-methods analysis. Aiming, moreover, at expanding the scope of populism studies by overcoming a narrow view that focuses exclusively at party system developments, it applies semantic text analysis to the study of grassroots mobilization during the Great Recession. Results point to the wide use of populist discourse on the part of movement activists seeking an inclusive language when framing disparate social grievances in a given constituency, a finding with important implications with regards to how populism can facilitate straddling the divide that purportedly distinguishes institutionalized party system behavior from the social movement milieu.