A proposition of generalized stochastic Milevsky–Promislov mortality models

The aim of this article is to propose a new approach to the estimation of the mortality rates based on two extended Milevsky and Promislov models: the first one with colored excitations modeled by Gaussian linear filters and the second one with excitations modeled by a continuous non-Gaussian process. The exact analytical formulas for theoretical mortality rates based on Gaussian linear scalar filter models have been derived. The theoretical values obtained in both cases were compared with theoretical mortality rates based on a classical Lee–Carter model, and verified on the basis of empirical Polish mortality data. The obtained results confirm the usefulness of the switched model based on the continuous non-Gaussian process for modeling mortality rates.     

Consumer debt attitudes: The role of gender,debt knowledge and skills

The link between financial attitudes and consumer financial market behaviour is well documented. However, little is known about the role of financial knowledge and skills—the main components of the financial literacy construct—in shaping debt attitudes. This link is especially absent from the gender perspective. This study focuses on consumer debt literacy and debt attitudes. A representative sample of adult Poles (N = 1,004) was participated in a computer‐assisted telephone interview. Latent class analysis was employed to reveal their debt attitudes, and subsequently, links between debt literacy and debt attitudes were studied with multinomial regression models. The results show that respondents in Poland can be grouped into five classes exhibiting different attitude profiles. The structure of debt attitudes is complex and differs from a simple unidimensional pro‐debt/ anti‐debt construct. Although this study did not find significant gender differences either in the conceptualization of debt attitudes or in their drivers, the results showed that in all but one class, consumer attitudes are strongly linked to either debt knowledge or debt skills or to both. Debt skills were revealed to be a particularly strong predictor of consumer debt attitudes.     

Assessing the sustainability of external imbalances in the European Union

We assess the sustainability of the current account (CA) balance, net international investment position (NIIP) and net external debt (NED) in a sample of 22 EU countries using two complementary approaches. First, we employ time‐series stationarity tests of current account balance‐to‐GDP ratios as well as cointegration tests of exports and imports of goods and services. Second, we assess the level of trade balance that stabilises the NIIP and the NED. We find that there is sustainability of the CA balance in eight countries, NIIP in five countries and NED in 10 countries, whereas there is evidence of a lack of sustainability in five debtor nations and three creditor nations. Both approaches are consistent with each other given the relationship between flows and stocks, the existence of structural breaks, and valuation effects via exchange rate and interest rate changes.     

Attitudes toward protecting endangered species: The impact of perceived physical attractiveness of animals and political ideology

The current research examined how the perceived physical attractiveness (by humans) of an endangered species, the Dead Leaf Butterfly (Kallima inachus), political orientation, and political ideology impacted participants' attitudes toward supporting and protecting a species. Three experiments were conducted where the physical attractiveness of the Dead Leaf Butterfly was manipulated. Two of the experiments used a representative American sample, while one of the experiments used a Polish sample. In all three studies: (1) Participants rated the Dead Leaf Butterfly as more physically attractive when its wings were open and displayed a black apex, an orange discal band, and a deep blue base than when its wings were closed and resembled a dried leaf with dark veins; and (2) those who scored high in humanitarianism-egalitarianism provided more support for protection from harm for the Dead Leaf Butterfly compared to those who scored low in humanitarianism-egalitarianism. Only in the studies where Americans participated did we find (1) those who were politically liberal indicated more support for the Dead Leaf Butterfly regardless of physical attractiveness as compared to those who were politically conservative, and (2) those who scored low in right-wing authoritarianism provided more support for protection from harm for the Dead Leaf Butterfly compared to those who scored high in right-wing authoritarianism. The differences observed between the American and Polish samples suggest that environmental attitudes are more polarized in the United States compared to Poland. These studies advance our knowledge of how attitudes toward animals are affected by the polarization of political attitudes toward the environment and provide insight for marketers when creating marketing strategies and designing appropriate messaging.     

A FEW CRITICAL REMARKS ON GLOBALISATION, DEMOCRACY AND SPATIALITY

Globalisation has come in for a lot of criticism. With its emphasis on the unimpeded circulation of capital, it is increasingly regarded as a negative phenomenon that prompts 'creative destruction' of politico-economic spaces at various geographical scales. Globalisation is also thought to cause wage stagnation, widening inequalities, higher unemployment and greater insecurity as well as to undermine local democracy and environmental sustainability. This paper argues that those criticisms should not be unproblematically accepted and makes a case for a less biased and more nuanced interpretation.     

Speculating on presidential success: exploring the link between the price–earnings ratio and approval ratings

Stock markets and politics are enduring staples of dinner party conversations but surprisingly little is known about the interaction between the two. Here we present evidence for a robust relationship between a key financial measure—the aggregate Price–Earnings ratio—and surveyed approval of the incumbent president. We argue, following the finance literature, that the price–earnings ratio is a composite measure of investors’ hopes and fears. The partially prospective nature of this ratio enables us to shed new light upon the controversy surrounding how the electorate attends to economic circumstances in judging its presidents.     

The heterogeneous regional effects of minimum wages in Poland

We evaluate the impact of large minimum wage hikes on employment and wage growth in Poland between 2004 and 2018. We estimate panel data models utilizing the considerable variation in wage levels, and in minimum wage bites, across 73 Polish NUTS 3 regions. We find that minimum wage hikes had a significant positive effect on wage growth and a significant negative effect on employment growth only in regions of Poland that were in the first tercile of the regional wage distribution in 2007. These effects were moderate in size, and appear to be more relevant for wages. Specifically, if the ratio of minimum wage to average wage had remained constant after 2007, by 2018, the average wages in these regions would have been 3.2% lower, while employment would have been 1.2% higher. In the remaining two-thirds of Polish regions, we find no significant effects of minimum wage hikes on average wages or on employment.     

On the mechanisms of achieving fiscal (un)sustainability: the case of Poland

Aim of this paper is to assess empirically the sustainability of budgetary policy in Poland in years 1992–2006. Our results show that structural surplus did respond to fiscal shocks in a way that stabilizes debt. However, the debt-stabilizing mechanism relied entirely on the revenue side, while the expenditures moved independently from debt and in a way that is close to non-stationarity. Given numerous bounds on increasing fiscal revenues, such an asymmetric mechanism of ensuring sustainability of Polish public finances is likely to fail if pressure on increasing public expenditures remains high over prolonged periods.