Database marketing modelling for financial services using hazard rate models

This paper investigates the effectiveness of using direct mail message as an element in the communication mix of a financial retail company. The focus in this study will be on interpurchase time, i.e. duration times between the last purchase of any type of financial service by a customer at that bank and the purchasing of a personal loan.

Our findings indicate that (1) direct mail message have a very significant effect on shortening the interpurchase time, (2) the combined effect of several direct mail messages exhibits diminishing returns to scale, (3) incorporating time-varying variables in the model significantly improves model results, (4) Ownership of certain other services has a significant impact on the probability of purchase of the personal loan, and (5) conditional probability of purchase is found to increase with time elapsed since last purchase. The latter finding shows that the receny effect, known to be very important in most RRM models, may to dependent on the product category.     

Market entry of multinational companies in markets at the bottom of the pyramid: A learning perspective

Multinational companies (MNCs) can play an important role in poverty alleviation. The international business literature, however, lacks theoretical insight and systematic empirical evidence of MNCs entering low-income markets. Therefore, this study sheds light on the questions: How MNCs enter low-income markets? How MNCs operate? And how they gain knowledge in these markets? Using a multiple case study approach, we analyze MNCs with business activities in low-income markets by taking recourse to the internationalization process model of Johanson and Vahlne. The results reveal that companies develop knowledge by enlarging their mode of market commitment to a new level that exceeds local manufacturing and production facilities.     

Assessing risks – challenges posed by the European general product safety directive

The concept of risk appears in a prominent way in the recently revised European Directive on General Product Safety (GPSD). Risk assessment is therefore an important tool for the success of the Directive; the question is how risk assessment should be carried out in a systematic manner in order to meet the aims of the Directive. In this paper, the references in the GPSD concerning the concept of risk are reviewed and compared with reported problems in European risk assessment. Existing guidelines for risk assessment are examined in order to determine what factors determine the consistency of the outcome. This leads to recommendations for a process that could be followed in order to make risk assessment successful in the context of the GPSD. On the basis of existing guidelines for risk assessment, criteria are formulated with which methods of risk assessment should comply. A stepwise process is proposed in order to develop a common method of risk assessment that can be applied in Europe to support the GPSD. The requirements for risk management in the new GPSD are rather and lack specification, both for producers and for enforcement authorities. The Directive further refers to the need to develop non-binding guidelines in due course. Sources of different outcomes of the risk assessment process are outlined in this paper as well as possibilities to achieve a more consistent basis for decisions, more uniformity and transparency. These are essential conditions if one wishes to avoid both undue trade barriers and unsafe products on the market. A leading role for the European Commission seems necessary to make sure that the intentions of the GPSD are accomplished.     

Schuldenkrise in der Europäischen Union

Die Krise Griechenlands w?chst sich zu einer Gefahr für den gesamten Euroraum aus. Wie soll die Europ?ische Union darauf reagieren? Sie befindet sich im Dilemma zwischen Bailout und Bestrafung des „Defizitsünders“. Das erste scheint für den Bestand der W?hrungsunion unvermeidlich, das zweite ist erforderlich, um einen Moral Hazard zu vermeiden.