Recent evidence suggests shifts (structural breaks) in the volatility of returns causes non‐normality by significantly increasing kurtosis. In this paper, we endogenously detect significant shifts in the volatility of oil prices and incorporate this information to estimate Value‐at‐Risk (VaR) to accurately forecast large declines in oil prices. Our out‐of‐sample performance results indicate that the model, which incorporates both time varying volatility (without making any distributional assumptions) and shifts in volatility, produces more accurate VaR forecasts than several benchmark methods. We make a timely contribution as the recent more frequent occurrences of unexpected large oil price declines has gained significant attention because of its substantial impact on the financial markets and the global economy. 相似文献
This article aims to investigate the impactful effect of relationship quality dimensions (i.e., trust, satisfaction, and commitment) on aspects of loyalty represented by attitudinal loyalty and behavioral loyalty. A quantitative survey method was employed to achieve the objectives of the study. Furthermore, a convenience sampling technique was adopted to select a representative sample from physicians working in the public healthcare sector in Jordan. A total of 500 questionnaires were distributed, and 408 questionnaires were used in the statistical analyses. The data were analyzed by applying structural equation modeling to test the study model, and hypotheses were constructed and tested quantitatively and discussed qualitatively. The results revealed that both aspects of customer loyalty (i.e., behavioral and attitudinal) were affected positively by the overall dimensions of relationship quality (i.e., trust, satisfaction, and commitment), providing a recommendation for pharmaceutical companies in Jordan to focus on improving the relationship quality between their medical representatives and physicians due to the importance of such a factor in improving customer loyalty, which will reflect positively in managing their customers effectively and enhancing future business opportunities. 相似文献
This paper proposes a trustable mold redesign knowledge-sharing platform, known as CKshare, based on private cloud and blockchain technology. Firstly, we use private cloud to store the mold redesign knowledge of each party to meet its own privacy and data format requirements. Secondly, a blockchain network is used for recording the knowledge and its transactions to ensure security and trustfulness. Thirdly, a simple retrieval mechanism is developed based on k-nearest neighbors for retrieving the codified knowledge on the platform. To realize CKshare, a prototype platform has been developed and explained based on real data from the case mold company. 相似文献
This paper examines the impact of exposure to provincial and national information on the performance of non-financial Chinese firms during the recent global financial crisis (2007 to 2009). The results show that firms with higher level of exposure to provincial information are affected less by the crisis than firms with higher level of exposure to national information. The results are also robust across various proxies of firm performance. The main contribution of this paper is to highlight sources of value for Chinese firms during the recent financial crisis. More importantly, this paper uses publicly available information to draw attention on the role played by national and provincial sources of information in defining firm performance during the recent global financial crisis.
ABSTRACT The success of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) depends on dynamic capabilities, as it provides opportunities to remain competitive and perform well in the dynamic business environment. Although several studies show the significant positive impacts of dynamic capabilities on firm performance, our knowledge of the underlying mechanism through which IT capabilities affect the firm performance is not yet clear. Applying the dynamic capability view, this study investigates the intervening role of absorptive capacity and corporate entrepreneurship. The data of 417 respondents is collected from medium-sized manufacturing sector SMEs in Punjab, Pakistan. The research hypotheses have been analysed through the structural equation modelling method by using the Smart-PLS software. The research findings show that absorptive capacity and corporate entrepreneurship partially mediates the relationship between IT capabilities and firm performance. Furthermore, the sequential path of IT technical skills, absorptive capacity, corporate entrepreneurship, and firm performance is highly significant as compared to other paths. 相似文献
We investigate empirically whether a central bank can promote financial stability by stabilizing inflation and output, and whether additional stabilization of asset prices and credit growth would enhance financial stability in particular. We employ an econometric model of the Norwegian economy to investigate the performance of simple interest rate rules that allow a response to asset prices and credit growth, in addition to inflation and output. We find that output stabilization tends to improve financial stability. Additional stabilization of house prices, equity prices and/or credit growth enhances stability in both inflation and output, but has mixed effects on financial stability. In general, financial stability as measured by e.g., asset price volatility improves, while financial stability measured by indicators that depend directly on interest rates deteriorates, mainly because of higher interest rate volatility owing to a more active monetary policy. 相似文献
The United States and France are both most developed economies in the world. Their socio-economic institutions, however, are very different. These differences are indications of their dichotomous legal regimes: common law in the US versus code law in France. The political influence of these legal regimes, in turn, leads to a dichotomized classification of accounting systems: the British-American Model and the French Continental Model. This study extends these institutional effects into the field of management earnings forecast. We find that earnings forecasts by French firms are less informative than those made by US firms matched-up by industry and firm size. We also compare US and French financial analysts' revisions of their forecasts following the management forecasts. We find that revisions by French analysts are more influenced by management forecasts. Our findings are consistent with prior studies that argue that information asymmetry in code-law countries is largely resolved through private information channels, rendering less information content in management announcements and less demand and incentives for original research by financial analysts. 相似文献
This paper presents spatially explicit analyses of the greenspace contribution to residential property values in a hedonic
model. The paper utilizes data from the housing market near downtown Los Angeles. We first used a standard hedonic model to
estimate greenspace effects. Because the residuals were spatially autocorrelated, we implemented a spatial lag model as indicated
by specification tests. Our results show that neighborhood greenspace at the immediate vicinity of houses has a significant
impact on house prices even after controlling for spatial autocorrelation. The different estimation results from non-spatial
and spatial models provide useful bounds for the greenspace effect. Greening of inner city areas may provide a valuable policy
instrument for elevating depressed housing markets in those areas. 相似文献
This paper investigates the validity of the law of one price (LOP) in international financial markets by examining the frequency, size and duration of inter-market price differentials for borrowing and lending services (‘one-way arbitrage’). Using a unique data set for three major capital and foreign exchange markets that covers a period of more than seven months at tick frequency, we find that the LOP holds on average, but numerous economically significant violations of the LOP arise. The duration of these violations is high enough to make it worthwhile searching for one-way arbitrage opportunities in order to minimize borrowing costs and/or maximize earnings on given funds. We also document that such opportunities decline with the pace of the market and increase with market volatility. 相似文献