我国货币数据与名义GDP的相关性研究及在货币政策中的运用

名义GDP(以下简称GDP)是反映一国经济运行状况的重要宏观经济变量,也是制定宏观调控政策的主要依据。本文旨在通过实证数据从GDP增长率与货币数据增长率的比值、GDP与货币数据的比值(货币效率指标)两个指标对我国全国、上海市和浙江省的GDP与货币数据之间的关系进行分析和探讨,根据得出的规律提出了评估GDP真实水平的方法,并对中央银行制定和实施货币政策提出相关建议。     

建立现代市场秩序的理论分析:从竞争范式转向制度范式

市场秩序指的是市场运行中必须遵循的一切规则和法律规范的总称。它告诉市场主体什么可以做,什么不可以做乃至会受到何种惩罚,从而保障社会生产、交换、消费、分配等各个环节的顺利实现和市场机制的良性发挥。①良好的市场秩序是健康的市场经济不可或缺的一部分。古典和新古典经济学认为完全竞争的市场是最有效率的市场,它能够实现资源的最优配置。从这个观点出发,要建立和完善市场秩序就是要保护市场的竞争性,也就是创造良好的竞争环境,维持良好的竞争秩序,防止市场失灵。但是信息经济学指出,在不完全信息的条件下,竞争也是不完全的,单纯依靠竞争并不能解决所有的效率问题。因此,要完善市场秩序,发挥市场的作用,必须引入相应的制度安排。     

Speculate a lot

While the residential and commercial property markets in Hong Kong are extensively discussed, little attention is paid to the carpark market. This work contributes to fill the research gap in three ways. First, it provides a simple empirical model to explain carpark ratios in residential buildings. Second, it hand collects transaction-level data and constructs a price index for the carpark market in Hong Kong. Third, it shows that changes in stamp duties increase the volatility in the carpark market. This research may shed light on the current debate on the effectiveness of the stamp duty in stabilizing the real estate market.     

An institutional perspective on consumers' environmental awareness and pro-environmental behavioral intention: Evidence from 39 countries

We adopted an institutional approach to examine the relationship between environmental awareness and pro-environmental behavioral intention at the individual level. We also compared the moderating effects of regulative, normative, and cognitive social institutions on this relationship. Based on survey data representing 42,962 consumers from 39 nations, we found that consumers' environmental awareness promoted their pro-environmental behavioral intention. Moreover, we found that normative social institutions negatively moderated the relationship between environmental awareness and pro-environmental behavioral intention, whereas cognitive social institutions positively moderated this relationship. This paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of these empirical findings.     

便利的研究:一个文献综述

技术和竞争使企业给消费者带来越多的便利,研究便利有助于企业更好审视自身提供便利的行为,从而选择有效的便利策略。文章在考察便利研究的现状后,针对性地梳理了不同视角下便利的概念,分析了多维度便利的分解方法,总结了便利对顾客满意、行为倾向、重复购买等服务结果的直接影响和间接影响。在此基础上对未来研究提出一些建议。     

会展组展商信号传递博弈分析

在会展市场中组展商和参展商之间存在着严重的信息不对称现象,从而导致虚假展会问题严重,本文通过建立信号博弈模型,对组展商信誉信号水平的各种均衡情况进行分析,在可能产生的混同均衡、准分离均衡和分离均衡中,只有分离均衡是最有效率的,并在此分析的基础上提出相应的策略和建议。     

Industrial Structural Change and Economic Growth in China, 1987–2008

The present paper studies the sources of economic growth and the nature of structural change in the Chinese economy from 1987 to 2008. Using a methodology that evaluates the contribution of an industry to economic growth, the present paper shows that the post‐2000 subperiod marked an increased reliance on the services sector as a source of growth in the Chinese economy. Much of the acceleration in real GDP or aggregate labor productivity growth in China in the post‐2000 subperiod compared to the pre‐2000 period can be traced to an increased contribution from service‐producing and high‐technology exporting manufacturing industries. The evidence indicates that the Chinese economy has been rebalancing toward domestic consumption and shifting its export sector toward high‐technology manufacturing industries.     

中国长期护理保险不同筹资模式研究

在人口老龄化和失能化程度加深、长期护理保险试点地区制度碎片化和差异化的背景下,探究不同筹资模式对于建立覆盖全民、城乡统筹的长期护理保险具有重要意义.文章利用多期微观跟踪调查数据,刻画了中国老年人健康状态转换的规律,并基于"七普"数据和年龄移算法,测算了2020-2040年失能老年群体的规模和结构.文章进一步基于社会保险精算平衡理论,构建了筹资模式为现收现付制和三种混合制下的动态精算模型,模拟了城镇职工和城乡居民长期护理保险未来20年的均衡费率和缴费额.研究发现,在相同的筹资模式下,城镇职工长期护理保险的均衡费率低于城乡居民,但缴费额高于城乡居民.均衡费率较低的城镇职工长期护理保险更适合采用具有一定积累功能的混合制,以应对人口失能化高峰时期可能出现的支出缺口;城乡居民长期护理保险则更适合采用现收现付制,现阶段各筹资主体的缴费压力较小,且制度运行成本较低,在推广初期比较容易被接受.文章的研究丰富了我国社会长期护理保险的精算研究,对于正在推广的长期护理保险试点的筹资体制建设具有重要意义.