Executive Financial Incentives and Payout Policy: Firm Responses to the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut

We test whether executive stock ownership affects firm payouts using the 2003 dividend tax cut to identify an exogenous change in the after‐tax value of dividends. We find that executives with higher ownership were more likely to increase dividends after the tax cut in 2003, whereas no relation is found in periods when the dividend tax rate was higher. Relative to previous years, firms that initiated dividends in 2003 were more likely to reduce repurchases. The stock price reaction to the tax cut suggests that the substitution of dividends for repurchases may have been anticipated, consistent with agency conflicts.     

Forbearance and Prompt Corrective Action

This article investigates whether a bank regulator should terminate problem banks promptly or exercise forbearance. We construct a dynamic model economy in which entrepreneurs pledge collateral, borrow from banks, and invest in long-term projects. We assume that collateral value has aggregate risk over time, that in any period entrepreneurs can abscond with the projects but lose the collateral, and that depositors can withdraw deposits. We show that optimal regulation exhibits forbearance if the ex-ante probability of collapse in collateral value is sufficiently low, but exhibits prompt termination of problem banks if this probability is sufficiently high.     

Implications of Components of Income Excluded from Pro Forma Earnings for Future Profitability and Equity Valuation

Abstract:  This study addresses three research questions relating to total exclusions, special items, and other exclusions. Are each of these pro forma exclusion components forecasting irrelevant? Are each of the exclusion components value irrelevant? Are the valuation multiples on the exclusion components justified by their ability to forecast future profitability as predicted by the Ohlson (1999) model? Findings are generally consistent with the market-inefficiency results presented in Doyle et al. (2003) . Total exclusions are valued negatively by the market despite the prediction that total exclusions will be valued positively. Valuation results also suggest that stocks with positive other exclusions are overpriced.     

On money and output: Is money redundant?

There is an emerging consensus that money can be largely ignored in making monetary policy decisions. Rudebusch and Svensson [1999, Policy Rules and Inflation Targeting. In Taylor, J.B. (Ed.), Monetary Policy Rules. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 203-246; 2002, Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data. European Economic Review 46, 417-442] provide some empirical support for this view. We reconsider the role of money and find that money is not redundant. More specifically, there is a significant statistical relationship between lagged values of money and the output gap, even when lagged values of real interest rates and lagged values of the output gap are accounted for. We also find that inside and outside money provide significant information in predicting movements in the output gap.     

Maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models

We develop and implement a method for maximum likelihood estimation in closed-form of stochastic volatility models. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compare a full likelihood procedure, where an option price is inverted into the unobservable volatility state, to an approximate likelihood procedure where the volatility state is replaced by proxies based on the implied volatility of a short-dated at-the-money option. The approximation results in a small loss of accuracy relative to the standard errors due to sampling noise. We apply this method to market prices of index options for several stochastic volatility models, and compare the characteristics of the estimated models. The evidence for a general CEV model, which nests both the affine Heston model and a GARCH model, suggests that the elasticity of variance of volatility lies between that assumed by the two nested models.     

Optimal life insurance purchase and consumption/investment under uncertain lifetime

In this paper, we consider optimal insurance and consumption rules for a wage earner whose lifetime is random. The wage earner is endowed with an initial wealth, and he also receives an income continuously, but this may be terminated by the wage earner’s premature death. We use dynamic programming to analyze this problem and derive the optimal insurance and consumption rules. Explicit solutions are found for the family of CRRA utilities, and the demand for life insurance is studied by examining our solutions and doing numerical experiments.     

The Influence of Household Formation on Homeownership Rates Across Time and Race

Homeownership rates equal the number of households that own homes divided by the number of households in the population. Differences in the propensity to form a household, therefore, may contribute to changes in homeownership rates over time in addition to long-standing racial gaps in homeownership. We examine these issues on an age-specific basis using data from the 1970 to 2000 public use microsamples of the decennial census. Results indicate that lower headship rates tend to reduce homeownership rates. This pattern is most notable for individuals in their early and mid 20s. For these individuals, declining headship rates between 1970 and 2000 reduced homeownership rates by three to five percentage points. Moreover, 2000 African American headship rates narrow white–black gaps in homeownership by roughly three percentage points, whereas 2000 Hispanic headship rates widen white–Hispanic gaps in homeownership by two to three percentage points. Thus, controlling for differences in headship behavior, white–black homeownership gaps are somewhat more severe than previously recognized, but the reverse is true for white–Hispanic gaps.     

Programming for the Internet and Experiential Learning: a New Approach Incorporating a Constructed World

This paper reports on a novel approach taken by the author to the teaching of an Internet programming course targeted at final year diploma and second year degree students. The uniqueness of engineers and their identity is discussed, as is the self-constructed world and ways of knowing in which humankind operates. The novel approach to teaching a software-coding course, and this course’s underlying philosophies of learning, the approach taken in class-contact time, and the methods of interaction with the students are presented, along with the conventional structure, quantitative measures, outline, and assessment of the course. The effects and observations of approaches employed are discussed, and the quantitative outputs achieved are presented alongside the unquantifiable impressions, comments and positive feedback.     

Position auctions

I analyze the equilibria of a game based on the ad auction used by Google and Yahoo. This auction is closely related to the assignment game studied by Shapley–Shubik, Demange–Gale–Sotomayer and Roth–Sotomayer. However, due to the special structure of preferences, the equilibria of the ad auction can be calculated explicitly and some known results can be sharpened. I provide some empirical evidence that the Nash equilibria of the position auction describe the basic properties of the prices observed in Google's ad auction reasonably accurately.