Devaluation,Capital Mobility,and Long-Run Equilibrium*

The paper considers a small, fully employed economy with non-tradeables, securities, and money. The paper first analyzes the effects of devaluation and financial controls in the short-run equilibrium on the trade balance, the capital account, and the overall balance of payments. Disequilibria in the capital account and the overall balance of payments cause changes in the stock of securities and money, shifting the short-run equilibrium. The paper investigates the condition for the- uniqueness and stability of the long-run equilibrium under this adjustment process (‘specie flow mechanism’). Finally, the long-run equilibrium effects of devaluation and monetary policies are examined.     

R2

Even with hindsight, the ability to explain stock price changes is modest. $R^2$s were calculated for the returns of large stocks as explained by systematic economic influences, by the returns on other stocks in the same industry, and by public firm-specific news events. The average adjusted $R^2$ is only about .35 with monthly data and .20 with daily data. There is little relation between explanatory power and either the firm's size or its industry. There is little improvement in $R^2$ from eliminating all dates surrounding news reports in the financial press. However, the sample kurtosis is quite different when such news events are eliminated, thereby revealing a mixture of return distributions. Non-news dates also indicate the presence of a distributional mixture, perhaps due to traders acting on private information.     

On the Welfare Gains of Price Dispersion

Can price dispersion be associated with higher levels of welfare? To answer we compare two economies that differ only in the way prices are formed. In the first, sellers post a unique price–quantity pair, with no price dispersion. In the second, sellers post a quantity only and let prices be determined ex post by realized demand, resulting in price dispersion. We show that while agents trade lower quantities when prices are dispersed (an intensive margin effect), they also trade more often (an extensive margin effect). At low inflation, the extensive margin dominates making agents better off with price dispersion.     

How Do Quasi‐Random Option Grants Affect CEO Risk‐Taking?

We examine how an increase in stock option grants affects CEO risk‐taking. The overall net effect of option grants is theoretically ambiguous for risk‐averse CEOs. To overcome the endogeneity of option grants, we exploit institutional features of multiyear compensation plans, which generate two distinct types of variation in the timing of when large increases in new at‐the‐money options are granted. We find that, given average grant levels during our sample period, a 10% increase in new options granted leads to a 2.8% to 4.2% increase in equity volatility. This increase in risk is driven largely by increased leverage.     

Psychological and Demographic Characteristics as Determinants of Women's Health Insurance Coverage

The study examines the role of demographic and psychological characteristics in determining women's healthcare insurance coverage. To assess the role of these characteristics, data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience (NLSLME), Young Women's Cohort, were used considering both a married and not married subsample. Overall, the results indicate that in addition to the influence of previously examined demographic characteristics, the role of psychological attributes is substantial particularly for the not married subsample. Findings suggest that in addition to policy aimed at increasing health insurance coverage by way of considering demographic characteristics policy should also consider psychological attributes.