KEYNES AND LEIJONHUFVUD

The main thesis is that Keynes' theory is quite distinct fromthe ‘Keynesian’ income-expenditure theory (Leijonhufvud(1968), p. 8).     

Income Smoothing and Discretionary R&D Expenditures of Japanese Firms*

During the recent recession (1991 to present), Japanese firms decreased their spending on R&D for the first time since World War II. The decreases have raised concerns that Japanese managers may be making suboptimal allocations to R&D. We test whether Japanese managers adjust R&D based on short‐term performance. Our results show that Japanese firms in several industries adjust their R&D budgets to smooth profits. Interestingly, adjustments to R&D are larger in expansion years. These results, similar to those documented with U.S. managers, point to myopic decision making by Japanese managers.     

How Stable Are Corporate Capital Structures?

Leverage cross‐sections more than a few years apart differ markedly, with similarities evaporating as the time between them lengthens. Many firms have high and low leverage at different times, but few keep debt‐to‐assets ratios consistently above 0.500. Capital structure stability is the exception, not the rule, occurs primarily at low leverage, and is virtually always temporary, with many firms abandoning low leverage during the post‐war boom. Industry‐median leverage varies widely over time. Target‐leverage models that place little or no weight on maintaining a particular ratio do a good job replicating the substantial instability of the actual leverage cross‐section.     

将财务化繁为简

研究显示:有害的复杂性会为组织带来约10.2%的利润损失。因此,有必要现在就审查一下你所在企业的财务部和整个组织,看看是否可以通过降低复杂性来减少损失。在绝大多数企业中,财务部门处于复杂的系统和流程网络的中心,贯穿从财务报告一直到业绩管理。     

Individual and Aggregate Labor Supply with Coordinated Working Times

I analyze two extensions to the standard model of life‐cycle labor supply that feature operative choices along both the intensive and extensive margin. One assumes that individuals face continuous wage‐hours schedules, while the other assumes that all work must be coordinated across individuals. Though similar qualitatively, the two models have very different implications for aggregate labor supply responses to tax policy. In the first model, curvature in the individual utility from leisure function plays relatively little role, but in the second model, it is of first‐order importance. The second model also has important implications for what data are best able to provide evidence on the extent of curvature in the utility from leisure function.     

Nonlinearity and Flight‐to‐Safety in the Risk‐Return Trade‐Off for Stocks and Bonds

We document a highly significant, strongly nonlinear dependence of stock and bond returns on past equity market volatility as measured by the VIX. We propose a new estimator for the shape of the nonlinear forecasting relationship that exploits variation in the cross‐section of returns. The nonlinearities are mirror images for stocks and bonds, revealing flight‐to‐safety: expected returns increase for stocks when volatility increases from moderate to high levels while they decline for Treasuries. These findings provide support for dynamic asset pricing theories in which the price of risk is a nonlinear function of market volatility.