Forecasts of earnings per share: Possible sources of analyst superiority and bias*

Abstract. Previous research has shown that analysts' forecasts of quarterly earnings per share (EPS) are more accurate than those of accepted time-series models. In addition, some previous research suggests that, on average, analysts' forecasts tend to be optimistic (i.e., biased). Two explanations for analysts' superiority have been proposed: (1) analysts use more recent information than can time-series models and (2) analysts use forecast-relevant information not included in the time-series of past earnings. This paper provides evidence on a third potential source of analyst superiority: the possibility that humans can use past earnings data to predict future earnings more accurately than can mechanical time-series models. We find that human judges do no worse than accepted time-series models when both use the same information set: namely, the series of past EPS figures. To date, little or no research has attempted to determine why analyst bias might exist. Still, some possible reasons have been forwarded. First, pessimistic forecasts or reports may hinder future efforts of the analyst or the analyst's employer to obtain information from the company being analyzed. Second, forecast data bases may suffer a selection bias if analysts tend to stop following those firms that they perceive as performing poorly. This study proposes, and provides evidence regarding, a third possible explanation for analyst bias: the use of judgmental heuristics by analysts. Many studies have shown that human predictions are often biased because of the use of such heuristics. We present evidence that suggests this may be the case for analysts' forecasts of earnings per share. Résumé. De précédents travaux de recherche ont démontré que les prévisions des analystes relatives au bénéfice par action (BPA) trimestriel sont plus exactes que celles que permettent d'obtenir les modèles reconnus basés sur les séries chronologiques. De plus, les résultats de certains travaux de recherche laissent croire qu'en moyenne, les prévisions des analystes tendent à être optimistes (c'est-à-dire biaisées). Deux explications à cette supériorité ont été proposées: 1) l'information que les analystes utilisent est plus récente que celles utilisées dans les modèles fondés sur les séries chronologiques et 2) les analystes utilisent de l'information pertinente aux prévisions qui ne figure pas dans les séries chronologiques relatives aux bénéfices passes. Les auteurs attribuent à un troisième facteur potentiel cette supériorité: la possibilité pour les humains d'utiliser les données relatives aux bénéfices passés pour prédire les bénéfices futurs de façon plus précise que ne le peuvent les modèles fondés sur les séries chronologiques. Ils en viennent à la conclusion que les humains obtiennent des résultats tout aussi efficaces que les modèles chronologiques reconnus lorsqu'ils utilisent un jeu de renseignements identique, soit les données historiques relatives au BPA. Jusqu'à maintenant, peu de chercheurs, sinon aucun, ont tenté de déterminer à quoi tiendrait l'existence d'un biais chez l'analyste. Malgré tout, certaines explications possibles ont été proposées. Premièrement, les prévisions ou les rapports pessimistes peuvent faire obstacle aux efforts futurs de l'analyste ou de son employeur pour obtenir de l'information de la société faisant l'objet de l'analyse. Deuxièmement, les bases de données servant à la prévision peuvent être entachées d'un biais de sélection si les analystes ont tendance à cesser de suivre les entreprises qui leur semblent afficher une piètre performance. Les auteurs proposent et attestent une troisième explication possible du biais de l'analyste: l'utilisation de méthodes heuristiques fondées sur le jugement. De nombreuses études ont démontré que les prédictions humaines sont souvent biaisées par suite de l'utilisation de ces méthodes heuristiques. Les auteurs apportent des arguments qui permettent de croire que ce pourrait être le cas des prévisions des analystes du bénéfice par action.     

Textile marketing: a status report

This exploratory study investigated the status of textile marketing in the United States by (a) examining the textile industry's use of effective marketing techniques, and (b) identifying common problems and needed improvements in textile marketing. The procedure followed these steps: (a) effective marketing techniques were identified, (b) interviews were conducted with nine textile executives and four individuals representing the United States textile industry at large, and (c) the respondents' statements about textile marketing practices were analysed for evidence of effective marketing techniques, common textile marketing problems and needed inprovements in textile marketing. The results indicated that only five of the thirteen respondents described textile firms that were using effective marketing techniques, but some textile firms were using effective marketing techniques and this should be an incentive for other textile firms. Several common problems and needed improvements in textile marketing were also identified. Because of the small sample size, the open-ended questions, and the subjective analysis of the respondents' statements, this study must be regarded as exploratory. However, representative statements from the respondents are presented and these statements are informative about textile marketing practices.     

The effect of phosphate detergent bans on consumer clothing expenditures

Metropolitan sales data from the 1977 Census of Retail Trade were analysed to test whether phosphate detergent bans increased consumer expenditure on clothing: positive effects were found for men's clothing and domestic fabrics (sheets and towels). In areas with medium water hardness the average annual cost in 1977 equalled $11·08 per household. For 1984, the equivalent cost was $14·17 per household. These results are consistent with laboratory studies that show decreased detergency associated with non-phosphate detergents and increased fabric wear associated with carbonate-built detergents, the principle substitute for phosphate detergents. The bans impose the largest cost on hard water areas. In both ban and non-ban areas in 1977 higher laundering costs were associated with higher water hardness. Analysis of 1972 data indicated that water hardness did not affect clothing expenditures significantly when detergents contained large amounts of phosphates.     

Initial Public Offerings and Underwriter Reputation

This paper examined the returns earned by subscribing to initial public offerings of equity (IPOs). Rock (1986) suggests that IPO returns are required by uninformed investors as compensation for the risk of trading against superior information. We show that IPOs with more informed investor capital require higher returns. The marketing underwriter's reputation reveals the expected level of “informed” activity. Prestigious underwriters are associated with lower risk offerings. With less risk there is less incentive to acquire information and fewer informed investors. Consequently, prestigious underwriters are associated with IPOs that have lower returns.     

Predicting Counterproductive Performance Among Temporary Workers: A Note*

Using prehire biographic and work history data, temporary help agency workers (N= 201) were classified as marginal or satisfactory. Marginal temps had characteristics suggesting poor work histories and willingness to accept any kind of employment. In prior jobs, they were paid less and more likely to have been laid off. They had also been temps for longer periods of time, and were more willing to work weekends and nights. The classification of temps as marginal versus satisfactory was validated using posthire data, showing that marginal temps had lower performance evaluations, and exhibited more counterproductive behaviors (e.g., late, absent, unsafe, or careless).     

An investigation into some aspects of the efficiency of low-temperature laundering

The purpose of this research was to investigate the efficiency of laundering at low and recommended water temperatures using a heavy-duty biological detergent and a low-temperature detergent. The effectiveness of the process was measured in terms of the degree of stain/soil removal from laundered garments, and in the removal and transfer of bacteria from infected test pieces. The results indicate that with both detergents a reduction in washing efficiency occurs as the temperature of laundering is decreased, except when the difference between the recommended and low water temperature is small. Evidence was also obtained that shows that reducing wash temperatures decreases the degree of disinfection and increases the cross-infection of articles washed in the same load.