Inflation and Stock Market Returns:Some Australian Evidence*

This paper analyzes the relationship between Australian stock returns and inflation over the period 1965-79. The effects of inflation in a ‘rational investor’ valuation framework are discussed. Empirical tests suggest that nominal stock returns and inflation are related in a significantly negative fashion, implying that stocks have been extremely poor inflationary hedges for the investor over the period. In addition, Granger-Sims tests of causality indicate a mainly unidirectional relationship between inflation and stock returns, with price level charges leading the equity index in time.     

Predicting Counterproductive Performance Among Temporary Workers: A Note*

Using prehire biographic and work history data, temporary help agency workers (N= 201) were classified as marginal or satisfactory. Marginal temps had characteristics suggesting poor work histories and willingness to accept any kind of employment. In prior jobs, they were paid less and more likely to have been laid off. They had also been temps for longer periods of time, and were more willing to work weekends and nights. The classification of temps as marginal versus satisfactory was validated using posthire data, showing that marginal temps had lower performance evaluations, and exhibited more counterproductive behaviors (e.g., late, absent, unsafe, or careless).     

Consumption Fluctuations and Expected Returns

This paper introduces a novel consumption-based variable, cyclical consumption, and examines its predictive properties for stock returns. Future expected stock returns are high (low) when aggregate consumption falls (rises) relative to its trend and marginal utility from current consumption is high (low). We show that the empirical evidence ties consumption decisions of agents to time variation in returns in a manner consistent with asset pricing models based on external habit formation. The predictive power of cyclical consumption is not confined to bad times and subsumes the predictability of many popular forecasting variables.     

战略风险评估7步走

“对大多数公司而言,董事会倾注注意力和时间的重心是理解战略及关联风险并提供指导……以及对高管实施战略和风险管理两方面的业绩进行监管。”由美国全国公司董事协会（NACD）出版的《加强美国上市公司监管的关键议定原则》中如是表示。     

The Impact of Deregulation and Financial Innovation on Consumers: The Case of the Mortgage Market

We develop a technique to assess the impact of changes in mortgage markets on households, exploiting an implication of the permanent income hypothesis: The higher a household's expected future income, the higher its desired consumption, ceteris paribus. With perfect credit markets, desired consumption matches actual consumption and current spending forecasts future income. Because credit market imperfections mute this effect, the extent to which house spending predicts future income measures the "imperfectness" of mortgage markets. Using micro-data, we find that since the early 1980s, mortgage markets have become less imperfect in this sense, and securitization has played an important role.     

Accounting for the Business of Suffering: A Study of the Antebellum Richmond, Virginia, Slave Trade

When the Congress barred the importation of slaves into the United States in 1808, it left the internal slave trade intact. The trade took on a new importance as the slave states of the Old South saw their agricultural economies shift to a point that holding large numbers of slaves became too expensive. During this time, the large agricultural concerns shifted to the New South, where cotton and sugar plantations needed the cheap labour provided by the institution of slavery. As this transition intensified, Richmond, Virginia, became a central slave market that facilitated the interstate slave trade as Old South planters chose the course of selling slaves as a valuable commodity rather than the course of manumission. The records of two businesses—Dickinson & Hill and Hector Davis & Company—which plied the slave trade in the Richmond market, have survived into the twenty-first century. These records revealed a primitive, yet sophisticated, process to account for the consignment, purchase, and sales of human merchandise in this haunting story of the 'business of suffering'.     

8招化解供应链风险

经济衰退和复苏都会给企业的供应链带来巨大的风险,这里,我们提供8条建议来协助企业更好地管理供应链(客户和供应商)。1可视化风险,做长远打算只有确切了解供应链中的薄弱环节所在,才能很好地控制它。     

Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession

We investigate how the deterioration of household balance sheets affects worker productivity, and in turn economic downturns. Specifically, we compare the output of innovative workers who experienced differential declines in housing wealth during the financial crisis but were employed at the same firm and lived in the same metropolitan area. We find that, following a negative wealth shock, innovative workers become less productive and generate lower economic value for their firms. The reduction in innovative output is not driven by workers switching to less innovative firms or positions. These effects are more pronounced among workers at greater risk of financial distress.