Exchange Rates and Cash Flows in Differentiated Product Industries: A Simulation Approach

How do exchange rate changes impact firms' cash flows? We extend a simulation method developed in industrial organization to answer this question. We use prices, quantities, and product characteristics for differentiated products, coupled with a discrete choice framework and an assumption of price competition, to estimate marginal costs for all producers. Using a Monte Carlo approach we generate counterfactual prices and profits for different levels of exchange rates. We illustrate the method using the market for bottled water. Our results stress that even in a relatively simple market such as this one, different brands face very different exchange rate risks.     

The Accountability of Municipal Corporations

The popular view that market forces controlled the development of financial reporting practices among nineteenth-century British companies has recently been shown, by Parker (1990), to be an oversimplification. Large companies engaged in the provision of public utilities, transportation and financial services were the subject of close regulation, though not necessarily or only for the purpose of shareholder protection. The nineteenth century also saw the creation of municipal corporations, and their development is marked by a further variation in the process of accounting change. A regulatory structure, including requirements for accountability, was established when the modern municipal corporation was created in 1834, and this broad framework remained in force without major amendment until 1930. The accounting practices employed by municipal corporations underwent fundamental change, however, to accommodate major alterations in the nature of their activities. The process of 'voluntary' change in response to market pressure received reinforcement from recommendations made by the highly active local-authority-oriented professional accounting body.     

Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?

Many dividend theories imply that changes in dividends have information content about the future earnings of the firm. We investigate this implication and find only limited support for it. Firms that increase dividends in year 0 have experienced significant earnings increases in years ?1 and 0, but show no subsequent unexpected earnings growth. Also, the size of the dividend increase does not predict future earnings. Firms that cut dividends in year 0 have experienced a reduction in earnings in year 0 and in year ?1, but these firms go on to show significant increases in earnings in year 1. However, consistent with Lintner's model on dividend policy, firms that increase dividends are less likely than nonchanging firms to experience a drop in future earnings. Thus, their increase in concurrent earnings can be said to be somewhat “permanent.” In spite of the lack of future earnings growth, firms that increase dividends have significant (though modest) positive excess returns for the following three years.     

Housing as a Tool of Economic Development since 1929

Housing policy in the developing world has usually been shaped by social and political considerations, yet housing can also be used to promote economic development. From the 1930s to the 1950s, it was increasingly deployed for this purpose by the agencies of colonial powers, including Britain and France; by the United States in Puerto Rico; and by the US Agency for International Development and the Inter‐American Development Bank in Latin America. By the mid‐1960s, the UN and affiliated agencies, notably the International Labour Office, had a keen and broad appreciation of its significance for economic policy. This understanding was temporarily swamped by rising social concerns and then sidelined when the World Bank began to support sites‐and‐services schemes in the 1970s. It reasserted itself in the 1980s in the form of ‘market enabling’ strategies which, however, too often became an excuse for inaction. This history underlines the importance of paying attention to the potential role of housing as a tool of economic development. Dans le monde en développement, la configuration de la politique du logement tient généralement à des aspects sociaux et politiques, alors que le logement peut aussi servir à promouvoir l’expansion économique. Des années 1930 à 1950, c’est dans ce but qu’elle a été mise en ?uvre par les organes des puissances coloniales, dont la Grande‐Bretagne et la France, par les États‐Unis à Puerto Rico, ainsi que par l’agence de développement international des États‐Unis (USAID) et la Banque interaméricaine de développement en Amérique latine. Au milieu des années 1960, l’ONU et ses agences, notamment le Bureau International du Travail, ont émis un avis général tranché quant à son importance en politique économique. Cette idée a été temporairement submergée par l’apparition de problèmes sociaux, puis mise sur la touche lorsque la Banque mondiale a soutenu les projets Sites et services dans les années 1970. Elle s’est réimplantée dans les années 1980 sous la forme de stratégies de stimulation de marché qui, toutefois, ont trop souvent servi d’excuse au manque d’action. Cet historique souligne l’intérêt à accorder au rôle potentiel du logement en tant qu’outil de développement économique.