POPULATION AGEING,CAPITAL INTENSITY AND LABOUR PRODUCTIVITY

This paper analyses the implications of population ageing for the capital intensity of output and, therefore, labour productivity. Population ageing leads to sectoral shifts in demand for goods and services. If such shifts occur between goods that differ in their capital intensity, there will be a change in the average capital intensity of the economy and, therefore, in average labour productivity. In order to gauge the magnitudes of such effects, the present paper reports simulations of a calibrated model with two final goods and two intermediate goods, using data for two Pacific Rim countries for comparison: the United States and Australia. The data for these countries suggest that population ageing will, on average, shift expenditure towards goods with a relatively high capital intensity. The magnitude of the increase in labour productivity according to the simulations is likely to be small, but perhaps not trivial: in the order of 1–4% per annum by 2050. This might partially offset the negative effect of ageing on living standards.     

INTERPRETING CHANGES IN THE ECONOMIC STATUS OF THE ELDERLY, 1949-1979

This paper analyzes changes in the economic well-being of the elderly using data from the Decennial Censuses of 1950 through 1980. We find that the economic status of each elderly cohort is higher on average than that of the preceding cohort. Certain events associated with age–retirement for both men and women and widowhood for women–are associated with declining incomes. Controlling for sex, labor force participation, and marital status, however, the economic well-being of elderly cohorts generally increases with age.     

Stock Markets,Growth, and Tax Policy

An extensive literature documents the role of financial markets in economic development. To help explain this relationship, this paper constructs an endogenous growth model in which a stock market emerges to allocate risk and explores how the stock market alters investment incentives in ways that change steady state growth rates. The paper demonstrates that stock markets accelerate growth by (1) facilitating the ability to trade ownership of firms without disrupting the productive processes occurring within firms and (2) allowing agents to diversify portfolios. Tax policy affects growth directly by altering investment incentives and indirectly by changing the incentives underlying financial contracts.     

COMMENT—ALCOHOL ADVERTISING IN MAGAZINES AND YOUTH READERSHIP: ARE YOUTHS DISPROPORTIONATELY EXPOSED?

This article investigates the relationship between alcohol advertising in magazines and youth readership, while controlling for a set of magazine and readership variables related to the demand for advertising space. It reconstructs and reanalyzes a data set including count data for alcohol ads placed in 28 magazines in 2001-2003 that was the basis for a previous study, which concluded that alcohol advertisers do not target youths. We address the problem of collinearity in that data set and add an explanatory variable to explicitly model the hypothesis that alcohol advertising is preferentially directed to a young adult audience. We find that the number of alcohol advertisements in magazines increases significantly with the proportion of youth readers, even after controlling for young adult readership. Our results indicate that youths are disproportionately exposed to alcohol advertising and that reducing youth exposure to alcohol advertising remains an important public policy concern. ( JEL L82, L66, M37)     

DISCOUNT RATE DISTORTIONS AND THE RESOURCE CURSE

Empirical evidence has suggested a “resource curse” exists, in which countries with abundant resources may have higher initial consumption but then grow more slowly. The effect appears to be dependent on a country's political structure. Theoretical models not typically accounted for historical exceptions, or have not shown the effect exists in a dynamic growth setting. We derive the resource curse effect in an optimal growth model augmented with a political process. The economy has a finite nonrenewable resource, and the government planner can choose to over‐extract natural resources relative to the efficient path by distorting the discount rate, but in so doing incurs political costs that depend on the presence of democracy. Government planners in non‐democratic countries usually have more autonomy in policymaking than those in democratic countries; therefore, the political cost is lower for non‐democratic countries. We show that the incentive for the planner to distort the extraction path is larger, the higher is the initial resource endowment. Consistent with empirical evidence, the distortion raises short‐term consumption but lowers the long‐term growth rate, and institutional differences create corner solutions that explain why some resource‐abundant countries avoid the curse. These results are robust to the inclusion of autonomous technological change.     

United States Trade in Consumer Products

The United States has experienced a large trade deficit in consumer products. This paper argues that the deficit is due in part to the institutional and behavioral frameworks in which consumer products are marketed. The existence of an effective mass distribution system, a large market relative to promotion expenditures and the change-orientation of the consumer can influence greatly the ability of nations to expand markets and stimulate sales of consumer products. These factors prevalent in the American economy have attracted imports. In contrast, their absence in the economies of our trading partners has limited our access to foreign markets. Policy implications of this situation and areas for further research are identified and discussed.     

Securitization and Bank Performance

Using predominantly precrisis U.S. commercial bank data, this paper employs a propensity score matching approach to analyze whether individual banks did improve their performance through securitization. On average, our results show that securitizing banks tend to be more profitable institutions, with higher credit risk exposure. Despite a more diversified funding structure, they face higher funding costs. We also find that securitizing banks tend to hold larger and less diversified loan portfolios, have less liquidity, and hold less capital. However, our analysis does not provide evidence to suggest that securitization had an impact upon bank performance.     

Institutional Markets,Financial Marketing,and Financial Innovation

Firms and institutions are monitored and controlled through a complex set of implicit and explicit contractual relations. Because of these agency theoretic relations, institutional behavior in financial markets is not a simple reflection of the preference structures of individuals. Institutional preferences give rise to a demand for new financial instruments and innovations, even when the returns on these instruments are “spanned” in the sense of complete pricing. The innovations can be thought of as solving moral hazard problems. An agency theoretic example serves to illustrate the demand, supply, and financial marketing of stripped securities. In short, institutions matter.     

On the Cross-sectional Relation between Expected Returns and Betas

There is an exact linear relation between expected returns and true “betas” when the market portfolio is on the ex ante mean-variance efficient frontier, but empirical research has found little relation between sample mean returns and estimated betas. A possible explanation is that market portfolio proxies are mean-variance inefficient. We categorize proxies that produce particular relations between expected returns and true betas. For the special case of a zero relation, a market portfolio proxy must lie inside the efficient frontier, but it may be close to the frontier.