Accounting Standards Harmonization and Financial Statement Comparability: Evidence from Transnational Information Transfer

This paper investigates whether accounting standards harmonization enhances the comparability of financial information across countries. I hypothesize that a firm yet to announce earnings reacts more strongly to the earnings announcement of a foreign firm when both report under the same rather than different accounting standards. My analysis of abnormal price reactions for a global sample of firms supports the prediction. Next, in an attempt to control for the underlying economic comparability and the effects of changes in reporting quality, I use a difference‐in‐differences design around the mandatory introduction of International Financial Reporting Standards. I find that mandatory adopters experience a significant increase in market reactions to the release of earnings by voluntary adopters compared to the period preceding mandatory adoption. This increase is not observed for nonadopters. Taken together, the results show that accounting standards harmonization facilitates transnational information transfer and suggest financial statement comparability as a direct mechanism.     

Dividend Payouts and Information Shocks

We examine changes in firms’ dividend payouts following an exogenous shock to the information asymmetry problem between managers and investors. Agency theories predict a decrease in dividend payments to the extent that improved public information lowers managers’ need to convey their commitment to avoid overinvestment via costly dividend payouts. Conversely, dividends could increase if minority investors are in a better position to extract cash dividends. We test these predictions by analyzing the dividend payment behavior of a global sample of firms around the mandatory adoption of IFRS and the initial enforcement of new insider trading laws. Both events serve as proxies for a general improvement of the information environment and, hence, the corporate governance structure in the economy. We find that, following the two events, firms are less likely to pay (increase) dividends, but more likely to cut (stop) such payments. The changes occur around the time of the informational shock, and only in countries and for firms subject to the regulatory change. They are more pronounced when the inherent agency issues or the informational shocks are stronger. We further find that the information content of dividends decreases after the events. The results highlight the importance of the agency costs of free cash flows (and changes therein) for shaping firms’ payout policies.     

ARE SURVEYS OF EXPERTS UNBIASED? EVIDENCE FROM COLLEGE FOOTBALL RANKINGS

Policymakers are frequently interested in soliciting unbiased information regarding alternative policies, and expert surveys can be influential. As ranking policies is an often subjective process, there is always the concern of bias, both intentional and not. Expert bias is difficult to discern in the policy world, but surveys of expert opinion are compiled and “tested” for accuracy weekly in college football, allowing for hypothesis testing. Although previous research has used college football rankings to determine the ability of surveys to incorporate relevant information, this article examines the Associated Press and American Football Coaches' Association rankings for evidence of systematic bias. Specifically, more than 1,300 games from the 2003 to 2008 regular seasons are tested for factors that are systematically correlated with upsets. Both polls predict the winner nearly 80% of the time, and although there is evidence of systematic conference bias, correcting the rankings would only improve the accuracy of the polls by about 1%. There is no evidence of a bias favoring “big market” teams, nor teams that have strong journalism programs or are from the East Coast. (JEL D4, L8)     

The Economic Determinants of Private Schooling in Australia*

The demand for private schooling is particularly dependent on the relationship between fees charged and services provided. This relationship in turn depends upon the extent of government funding of private schools, the level of teachers' salaries and the value of contributed services. This paper documents movements in these and other variables and examines the extent to which they explain the shift of enrolments to private schools.     

On Timing and Selectivity

The dichotomy between timing ability and the ability to select individual assets has been widely used in discussing investment performance measurement. This paper discusses the conceptual and econometric problems associated with defining and measuring timing and selectivity. In defining these notions we attempt to capture their intuitive interpretation. We offer two basic modeling approaches, which we term the portfolio approach and the factor approach. We show how the quality of timing and selectivity information can be identified statistically in a number of simple models, and discuss some of the econometric issues associated with these models. In particular, a simple quadratic regression is shown to be valid in measuring timing information.     

The Analytics of Performance Measurement Using a Security Market Line

Security market line (SML) analysis, while an important tool, has never been fully justified from a theoretical standpoint. Assuming symmetric information and an inefficient index, we show that SML analysis can be grossly misleading, since, in general, efficient and inefficient portfolios can plot above and below the SML. On a more positive note, if SML analysis uses the return on a marketed riskless asset for the zero-beta rate, efficient portfolios must plot above the SML. Nonetheless, arbitrarily inefficient portfolios also plot above the SML.     

Information and Volatility: The No-Arbitrage Martingale Approach to Timing and Resolution Irrelevancy

The no-arbitrage martingale analysis is used to study the effect on asset prices of changes in the rate of information flow. The analysis is first used to develop some simple tools for asset pricing in a continuous-time setting. These tools are then applied to determine the effect of information on prices and price volatility, to extend Samuelson's theorem on prices fluctuating randomly, and to study the impact on prices of the resolution of uncertainty. The conditions under which uncertainty resolution is irrelevant for asset pricing are shown to be similar to those which support the MM irrelevance theorems.     

Mineral Leasing Policy: Competitive Bidding and the Resource Rent Tax Given Various Responses to Risk*

This paper considers the choice between lump-sum bidding and a tax conditional on net present value (of which the Resource Rent Tax is a practical example) as methods of collecting rent from mining projects. It demonstrates that there is an optimal combination of the two methods and that the relative emphasis to be placed on each depends heavily on the manner in which investors take risk into account. Four stylized ways in which investors and governments respond to risk are examined and, in addition to the more familiar types of risk, sovereign risk is introduced. The paper argues for the placing of relatively heavy emphasis on the conditional tax.