Discounting and Its Impact on Durables Buying Decisions

The phenomenon of discounting is well established in the economics literature. However, this research has traditionally assumed that households have a single discount rate and make all intertemporal tradeoffs based on that rate. More current research in decision making and marketing has challenged the economics approach to intertemporal choice behavior. In this article, we propose two aspects of discounting research that are particularly relevant to consumer behavior toward durable goods. We propose first that consumers have individual discount rates for product categories. The second proposition is that, in a multiattribute modeling context, consumers have different discount rates for different attributes. We also discuss the strategic implications of these discount phenomena for marketing managers.     

A Tax Evasion Model with Allowance for Retroactive Penalties*

Discrete models of tax evasion are considered when evasion has occurred over a period of several years. Allowance is made for growth in income, investment of illicit gains from successful evasion, and the imposition of retroactive penalties. Retroactive penalties increase deterrence of evasion if introduced at a point where evasion has been continuing for some years, since the utility gain from continuing successful evasion is unaffected, whereas the utility loss will be increased regardless of attitude to risk. Prohibitive penalty rates are determined, and a range of penalty rates are given in which some dishonest taxpayers may become honest. The formulation of the basic model and consequent conclusions are relevant to the current Australian taxation scene.     

The Extreme Future Stock Returns Following I/B/E/S Earnings Surprises

We investigate the stock returns subsequent to quarterly earnings surprises, where the benchmark for an earnings surprise is the consensus analyst forecast. By defining the surprise relative to an analyst forecast rather than a time‐series model of expected earnings, we document returns subsequent to earnings announcements that are much larger, persist for much longer, and are more heavily concentrated in the long portion of the hedge portfolio than shown in previous studies. We show that our results hold after controlling for risk and previously documented anomalies, and are positive for every quarter between 1988 and 2000. Finally, we explore the financial results and information environment of firms with extreme earnings surprises and find that they tend to be “neglected” stocks with relatively high book‐to‐market ratios, low analyst coverage, and high analyst forecast dispersion. In the three subsequent years, firms with extreme positive earnings surprises tend to have persistent earnings surprises in the same direction, strong growth in cash flows and earnings, and large increases in analyst coverage, relative to firms with extreme negative earnings surprises. We also show that the returns to the earnings surprise strategy are highest in the quartile of firms where transaction costs are highest and institutional investor interest is lowest, consistent with the idea that market inefficiencies are more prevalent when frictions make it difficult for large, sophisticated investors to exploit the inefficiencies.