Do the Merits Matter More? The Impact of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act

This article examines the effect of the Private Securities LitigationReform Act of 1995 (PSLRA) on stockholder lawsuits. We explorethe role of restatements, earnings forecasts, and insider tradingin the filing and resolution of lawsuits for a sample of hightechnology firms. Consistent with our predictions, there isa post-PSLRA shift away from litigation based on forward-lookingearnings disclosures. Conversely, there is a significantly greatercorrelation between litigation and both earnings restatementsand abnormal insider selling after the PSLRA. Finally, we finda post-PSLRA increase in the likelihood of settlement for casesinvolving earnings restatements.     

Tradespace exploration of in-space communications network architectures

Making architectural decisions in long lifecycle systems is challenging because the time between system definition and end of operations can span multiple decades, resulting in shifts in stakeholder needs and major advances in technologies. Space-based communications using relay satellite constellations is one such example, requiring substantial up-front planning to define capabilities and size capacity due to the large investment of time and resources. Additionally, there are numerous viable system architectures. In this paper, we build on existing methods to develop a graph-based decision method to assess and explore architectural flexibility in the future evolution of long lifecycle systems. The tradespace graph defines edges between similar architectures, quantifies the switching cost between architectures, using graphs to analyse the potential system evolution pathways. In a test case on NASA communication satellites, we find that hosting government communications payloads, in particular optical payloads, on commercial satellites could reduce cost and increase flexibility of the NASA network.     

Output‐based rebating of carbon taxes in a neighbour's backyard: Competitiveness,leakage and welfare

We investigate how, in an open economy, carbon taxes combined with output‐based rebating (OBR) perform in interaction with the carbon policies of a large neighbouring trading partner. Analytical results suggest that, whether the purpose of the OBR policy is to compensate firms for carbon tax burdens or to maximize welfare (accounting for global emission reductions), the OBR rate should be positive in policy‐relevant cases. Numerical simulations for Canada, with the US as the neighbouring trading partner, indicate that the impact of US policies on the OBR rate will depend crucially on the purpose of the Canadian OBR policies. If, for a given US carbon policy, Canada's aim is to restore the competitiveness of domestic emission‐intensive and trade‐exposed (EITE) firms to the same level as before the introduction of its own carbon taxation, we find that the necessary domestic OBR rates will be insensitive to the foreign carbon policies. However, if not only the Canadian carbon tax but also an equally high US tax is introduced, compensatory Canadian OBR rates will be up to 50% lower, depending on the sector and on US OBR policy. If the policy objective is to increase economy‐wide allocative efficiency (welfare) of Canadian policies by accounting for carbon leakage, the US policies will have only a minor downward pressure on desirable OBR rates in Canada. Practical choices of OBR rates hardly affect overall domestic economic performance; thus, output‐based rebating qualifies as an instrument for compensating EITE industries without a large sacrifice in terms of economy‐wide allocative efficiency.     

Author Index Volume 24 2003

Authors Index

Author Index Volume 24 2003     

Adverse Selection and the Decline in Private Health Insurance Coverage in Australia: 1989–95

The decline in private health insurance coverage over the period 1989–95 is analysed using the ABS National Health Surveys. Individuals' health status and health risk behaviours are found to be significant determinants of their decision to purchase private health insurance. At a point in time, the pool of the insured is very heterogeneous, with a mix of both good and bad health risks. It is found that the decline in insurance coverage over the period 1989–95 coincided with an increase in the degree of 'adverse selection' within the insured population.     

Common Currencies vs. Monetary Independence

We study the optimal monetary policy in a two-country open-economy model under two monetary arrangements: (a) multiple currencies controlled by independent policy makers; (b) common currencies with a centralized policy maker.
Our findings suggest that: (i) monetary policy competition leads to higher long-term inflation and interest rates with large welfare losses; (ii) the inflation bias and the consequent losses are larger when countries are unable to commit to future policies; (iii) the welfare losses from higher long-term inflation dominates the welfare costs of losing the ability to react optimally to shocks.     

A Paleoeconomic Theory of Co-Evolution and Extinction of Domesticable Animals

One Pleistocene mystery is why early North Americans eradicated their large, potentially domesticable animals (e.g., horses), whereas early Europeans did not. A commonly‐held hypothesis is that European species were evasive due to co‐evolution with hominids, whereas North American animals were naïve and unable to adapt quickly enough when experienced human hunters arrived from Eurasia. We explore this hypothesis with a paleoeconomic model of co‐evolution that integrates human hunting investments and wildlife population responses. We find that investments in hunting ability, based on the relative scarcity of prey species, could have mattered more than wildlife ‘naivety’ in explaining the extinction.     

Cost analysis of plasma-derived factor VIII/von Willebrand factor versus recombinant factor VIII for treatment of previously untreated patients with severe hemophilia A in the United States

Background: Inhibitor development to factor VIII (FVIII) hemophilia therapy results in increased complications and substantial economic costs. The SIPPET study, the first randomized controlled trial to compare the immunogenicity of plasma-derived FVIII (pdFVIII)/von Willebrand factor (VWF) and recombinant-DNA-derived FVIII (rFVIII), demonstrated higher inhibitor rates in previously untreated patients (PUPs) treated with rFVIII than in PUPs treated with pdFVIII/VWF.

Objective: To quantify the economic impact of treating PUPs with pdFVIII/VWF vs rFVIII.

Methods: An Excel-based clinical and economic model was developed from a US healthcare payer perspective and run over a 5-year period. The analysis utilized a cohort approach to model patient treatment and outcomes over a monthly cycle to quantify differences in costs of FVIII, bypassing agents, and hospitalizations for serious bleeds. Rates of high-titer inhibitor development were obtained from the SIPPET study. Patients developing high-titer inhibitors were treated with immune tolerance induction (ITI). Patients who developed low-titer inhibitors and those who did not develop inhibitors continued their usual FVIII treatment. Patients who were successfully treated with ITI returned to FVIII treatment, while unsuccessfully treated patients received bypassing agents. Total costs per treated patient were estimated and a one-way sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify the impact of parameter uncertainty on the model outcomes.

Results: Total cumulative costs per patient over 5 years were $834,621 for pdFVIII/VWF patients and $1,237,163 for rFVIII patients, representing a total saving of $402,542 per patient over the 5-year period, for an average annual saving of $80,508 per patient.

Conclusions: Based on data from the SIPPET study, this analysis found that initiating FVIII treatment in severe hemophilia A PUPs with pdFVIII/VWF has the potential to offer substantial cost savings to healthcare payers, amounting to a one-third reduction in costs.     

Multi-equation modelling of desirable and undesirable outputs satisfying the materials balance

The key feature when modelling joint production of intended outputs and unintended residuals is that the latter stem from the use of material inputs. A multi-equation model building on the factorially determined multi-output model of classical production theory satisfies the materials balance that tells us that the mass contained in inputs cannot disappear, but must turn up in the desirable outputs or end up as residuals. In this model, potentially complex technical relationships are simplified to express each of the intended outputs and the residuals as functions of the same set of inputs. Serious problems with the single-equation models most often found in the literature are demonstrated. Abatement activity in the form of end of pipe is added, and an optimal planning solution is derived using the concept of an environmental damage function for the impact of discharge of residuals into the natural environment. It is shown that the traditional environmental policy instruments, like direct regulation restricting the amount of undesirable residuals discharged to the environment, a Pigou tax on pollutants, and cap and trade, all function well. Extending the multi-equation model to allow for inefficiency, three efficiency measures are introduced: desirable output efficiency, residuals efficiency, and abatement efficiency. It is conjectured that these measures can be estimated independently using the DEA model.