Risk Transfer with Interest Rate Swaps

This paper proposes Entity‐Netted Notionals (ENNs) as a metric of interest rate risk transfer in the interest rate swap (IRS) market. Unlike the ubiquitous metric of notional amount, ENNs normalize for risk and account for the netting of longs and shorts within counterparty relationships. Using regulatory data for U.S.‐reporting entities, the size of the market measured by notional amount is $231 trillion, but, measured by ENNs, is only $13.9 trillion 5‐year swap equivalents, which is the same order of magnitude as other large U.S. fixed income markets. This paper also quantifies the size and direction of IRS positions across and within various business sectors. Among the empirical findings are that 92% of entities using IRS are exclusively long or exclusively short. Hence, the vast majority of market participants are prototypical end users, and the extensive amount of netting in the market is attributable to the activity of relatively few, larger entities. Finally, some sector‐specific empirical findings are inconsistent with widespread, prior beliefs. For example, pension funds and insurance companies are typically thought to be long IRS to hedge their long‐term liabilities, and these sectors are indeed net long, but approximately 50% of individual entities in these sectors are actually net short.     

Naive Reinforcement Learning With Endogenous Aspirations

This article considers a simple model of reinforcement learning. All behavior change derives from the reinforcing or deterring effect of instantaneous payoff experiences. Payoff experiences are reinforcing or deterring depending on whether the payoff exceeds an aspiration level or falls short of it. Over time, the aspiration level is adjusted toward the actually experienced payoffs. This article shows that aspiration level adjustments may improve the decision maker's long-run performance by preventing him or her from feeling dissatisfied with even the best available strategies. However, such movements also lead to persistent deviations from expected payoff maximization by creating 'probability matching' effects.     

Evolution of Interdependent Preferences in Aggregative Games

We study the evolution of preference interdependence in aggregative games which are symmetric with respect to material payoffs but asymmetric with respect to player objective functions. We identify a class of aggregative games whose equilibria have the property that the players with interdependent preferences (who care not only about their own material payoffs but also about their payoffs relative to others) earn strictly higher material payoffs than do the material payoff maximizers. Implications of this finding for the theory of preference evolution are discussed. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D62.     

Using Lexical Semantic Analysis to Derive Online Brand Positions: An Application to Retail Marketing Research

This paper provides an innovative approach to brand tracking in the context of online retail shopping by deriving meaning from the vast amount of information stored in online search engine databases. The method draws upon research in lexical text analysis and computational linguistics to gain insights into the structural schema of online brand positions. The paper proposes a simple-to-use method that managers can utilize to assess their brand's positioning relative to that of their competitors’ in the online environment.     

Trust-opportunism paradox,relationalism, and performance in interfirm relationships: evidence from the retail industry

Building on recent theoretical work documenting that interorganizational relationships (IORs) are ‘multifaceted and multiplex’ we investigate, from the agent's perspective, the joint effects of trust and opportunism in fostering (or inhibiting) relationalism, which, in turn, is predicted to influence performance within interfirm exchange relationships. Based on longitudinal survey data on 409 catalog intermediaries affiliated with a large retail firm, we found strong support for most of the hypothesized relationships. Implications for future research are offered. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Efficiency in an Economy with Fixed Costs

It is by now well known that in an economy with increasing returns, first-best efficiency may be impossible to attain through an equilibrium concept based on market prices, even if firms are regulated to follow marginal cost pricing. We examine the efficiency issue in a special but important class of economies in which the only source of nonconvexities is the presence of fixed costs. Even in this context, it is possible that none of the equilibria based on marginal cost pricing are efficient (unless additional, strong assumptions are made). We argue that available results on the existence of an efficient two-part tariff equilibrium rely on very strong assumptions, and we provide a positive result using a weak surplus condition. Our approach can also be used to establish the existence of an efficient marginal cost pricing equilibrium with endogenously chosen lump-sum taxes if the initial endowment is efficient in the economy without the production technology.