Risk and return in real estate

Basic information is provided on the returns and risks from 1978 through 1985 for unleveraged equity real estate compared with stocks and bonds. Data sources include the Russell-NCREIF index, the Evaluation Associates index, and the Goldman Sachs equity real estate investment trust index. Findings reveal that the aggregate return for the publicly traded equity real estate investment trust index in nearly twice that of the other real estate series, and more than twice that of the Standard & Poor index. The equity real estate investment trust is far more volatile than the other two real estate series. Neither the Goldman Sachs nor the other two indexes exactly measure the returns or risks on equity real estate. The volatility of the equity real estate investment trust leads it to overstate the risk of this investment category, while the other two indexes are not return indexes. Estimates from this study indicate that real estate risk lies plausibly midway between that of stocks and bonds, in the 9 percent to 13 percent range.     

General equilibrium with nonconvexities and money

In a general-equilibrium economy with nonconvexities, there are sunspot equilibria with good welfare properties; sunspots can ameliorate the effects of the nonconvexities. For these economies, we show that agents act as if they have quasi-linear utility functions. We use this result to construct a new model of monetary exchange along the lines of Lagos and Wright, where trade occurs in both centralized and decentralized markets, but instead of quasi-linear preferences we assume general preferences but with indivisible labor. This suggests that modern monetary theory is more robust than one might have thought. It also constitutes progress on the classic problem of integrating monetary economics and general-equilibrium theory.     

Advancing economic analysis beyond the equilibrium framework

Twentieth century economics was dominated by the development and refinement of the concept of economic equilibrium. While it is worthwhile to understand the properties of economic equilibrium, equilibrium concepts have dominated economic thought to the point that they have obscured some of the more important issues economists have always strived to understand. At least since Adam Smith’s time, economists have tried to understand the causes of prosperity, and how economic welfare can be enhanced, but these issues are best understood outside the equilibrium framework. The foundations provided by the Austrian school point toward ways that economic analysis can expand beyond the equilibrium framework.

The organizational bases of ethical work climates in lodging operations as perceived by general managers

The focus of this research concentrated on ascertaining the presence of ethical climate types and the level of analysis from which ethical decisions were based as perceived by lodging managers. In agreement with Victor and Cullen (1987, 1988), ethical work climates are multidimensional and multi-determined. The results of this study indicated that: (a) benevolence is the predominate dimension of ethical climate present in the lodging organization as perceived by lodging managers, and (b) the local level of analysis (e.g. immediate workplace norms and values) is the predominate determinant of ethical decisions in the organization.The implication of this study is that the knowledge gained from understanding that ethical decision making in an organization is multidimensional and multi-determined will foster understanding of ethical decision formation in the organizational context.Randall S. Upchurch has a rich lodging industry background that encompasses 16 years of practical experience ranging from front office operations to hotel general management. He received his Ph.D. in May of 1993. He is the author of a text entitled Lodging Marketing. Sheila K. Ruhland is Assistant Professor of Marketing Education in the College of Education at the University of Missouri — Columbia. Her research interests are in area of workplace ethics, workforce issues, leadership development. She has conducted a seminar on Ethics and has published articles in the Marketing Educators' Journal, and Journal of Vocational Education Research.     

U.S. policy in the euro crisis and the institutional deepening of the monetary union

ABSTRACT

Theoretical approaches to European integration often downplay and sometimes ignore the role of external actors. But the regime complex through which the euro crisis of 2010-2015 was prosecuted involved the United states directly and indirectly through the IMF. Tracing such external involvement shows that, although they preferred greater deepening of euro area institutions than was achieved, U.S. and IMF officials nonetheless contributed substantially to the creation of the EFSF/ESM, robust ECB action and launch of the banking union project. The conclusion formulates falsifiable expectations on which a theory of external influence in regional integration can be developed and tested.     

Big business stability and economic growth: Is what's good for General Motors good for America?

What is good for a country may not be good for its big businesses, at least recently. More turnover in top businesses correlates with faster per capita gross domestic product, productivity, and capital growth; supporting Schumpeter's [1942. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, third ed., Harper & Bros., New York, NY] theory of “creative destruction”—innovative firms blooming as stagnant ones wither. These correlations are greater in more developed economies, supporting Aghion and Howitt's [1992. A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica 60, 323–351] thesis that creative destruction matters more to economies nearer the technological frontier. More big business turnover also correlates with smaller government, common law, less bank-dependence, stronger shareholder rights, and greater openness.     

Efficient versus Responsive Supply Chain Choice: An Empirical Examination of Influential Factors

Contemporary strategies in operations management suggest that successful firms align supply chain assets with product demand characteristics in order to exploit the profit potential of product lines fully. However, observation suggests that supply chain assets often are longer lived than product line decisions. This suggests that alignment between supply chain assets and demand characteristics is most likely to occur at the time of initial market entry. This article examines the association between product demand characteristics and the initial investment in a supply chain at the time of market entry. We characterize supply chains as responsive or efficient. A responsive supply chain is distinguished by short production lead‐times, low set‐up costs, and small batch sizes that allow the responsive firm to adapt quickly to market demand, but often at a higher unit cost. An efficient supply chain is distinguished by longer production lead‐times, high set‐up costs, and larger batch sizes that allow the efficient firm to produce at a low unit cost, but often at the expense of market responsiveness. We hypothesize that a firm's choice of responsive supply chain will be associated with lower industry growth rates, higher contribution margins, higher product variety, and higher demand or technological uncertainty. We further hypothesize that interactions among these variables either can reinforce or can temper the main effects. We report that lower industry growth rates are associated with responsive market entry, but this effect is offset if growth occurs during periods of high variety and high demand uncertainty. We report that higher contribution margins are associated with responsive market entry and that this effect is more pronounced when occurring with periods of high variety. Finally, we report that responsive market entry also is correlated positively with higher technological demand uncertainty. These results are found using data from the North American mountain bike industry.     

Danish banking: Lessons for deposit insurance reform

As an alternative to a large deposit insurance fund, some observers have recommended prompt closure of banks that fail to maintain a high level of market-value capital. Others, however, see such an early closure policy as impractical, and potentially damaging to the competitive position of U.S. banks. Because the Danes have employed a policy of early closure based on marked-to-market portfolios, their experience is relevant to this debate. The article describes Danish banking policy, and discusses its effects on the behavior of banks and on processes for resolution of weak banks. The Danish policy appears to have provided depositor protection and resolved problems with large and small banks without a deposit insurance fund and without significant burdens on either the banks themselves or the public purse.A previous version of this article was prepared while the author was vice president, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco for the 1991 Conference on Bank Structure of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. The author wishes to thank Carl Aage Otholm, inspector of the Danish Supervisory Authority of Financial Affairs for reading and commenting on earlier drafts, Deborah Martin for her excellent research assistance, Ulrike Elofson for translation assistance, and George Kaufman and George Benston for encouragement. Data on Danish bank stock prices were obtained with the gracious assistance of Ellen-Margrethe Soelberg of the Copenhagen Stock Exchange.     

First Peoples lost: Determining the state of status First Nations mortality in Canada using administrative data

We present the most comprehensive set of estimates to date for status First Nations mortality in Canada. We use administrative data from Indigenous and Northern Affairs Canada to establish a set of stylized facts regarding status First Nations mortality rates. Between 2010 to 2013, the mortality rates of status First Nations men and boys are highest in nearly all age groups of status First Nations considered, with the exception of status girls between the ages of 10 to 14. On reserve, status boys between the ages of 15 to 19 have mortality rates nearly four times that in the general population, while status girls between the ages of 15 to 19 have mortality rates five times that in the general population. We demonstrate substantial regional variation in mortality rates. Finally, we document that there has been no improvement in mortality among status women and girls living on reserve in the last 30 years and relative mortality rates for all status people on reserve has not changed in 40 years.