On measuring nonlinear risk with scarce observations

We propose a methodology for estimating the risk of portfolios that exhibit nonlinear dependence on the risk driving factors and have scarce observations, which is typical for portfolios of investments in hedge funds. The methodology consists of two steps: first, regressing the portfolio return on nonlinear functions of each single risk driving factor and second, merging together the obtained estimates taking into account the dependence between different factors. Performing the second step leads us to a certain probabilistic problem, for which we propose an analytic and computationally feasible solution for the case where the joint law of the factors is a Gaussian copula. A typical practical application can be to estimate the risk of a hedge fund or a portfolio of hedge funds. As a theoretical consequence of our results, we propose a new definition of the factor risk, i.e., the risk of a portfolio brought by a given factor.     

Credit Scoring: Statistical Issues and Evidence from Credit-Bureau Files

Although credit scoring offers benefits to lenders and borrowers, its use raises important statistical issues that may affect the ability of scoring systems to accurately quantify an individual's credit risk. The evidence from a national sample of credit-bureau records suggests that concerns about omitted-variable bias may be justified, as local economic factors show significant correlations with credit scores.     

Do CRA Agreements Influence Lending Patterns?

This article considers the broader impact of Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) agreements—bank pledges to extend a certain volume of lending to targeted groups and communities—by examining whether they are associated with changes in lending to lower–income and minority communities in the markets where they are initiated. We find the number of newly initiated CRA agreements in a county to be associated with significant increases in CRA, minority and overall conventional mortgage lending in a county over a three–year period. The results are consistent with the view that the increases in lending represent new lending, with some evidence suggesting that the increases in lending are relatively short–lived. Overall, the results are consistent with the notion that lenders view CRA agreements as a form of insurance against the potentially large and unknown costs associated with fair lending violations, poor CRA performance ratings and adverse publicity from CRA–related protests of mergers or other applications. The results are also consistent with the view that the effectiveness of CRA agreements in increasing lending activity is ultimately determined by the persistence and sophistication of community groups in monitoring compliance with CRA agreements.     

Indigenous technical change: What we can learn from sugar processing

This paper is primarily concerned with the nature and extent of indigenous technological capability in peripheral countries. Set in the context of a recent survey article on this topic, it uses the case of open pan sugar technology to discuss the nature and significance of Third World technological capabilities. The paper has an additional relevance to readers of this journal in that it addresses itself to a topic — namely the choice of sugar technology — which has been extensively discussed in previous issues. It charts the impact which recent technological improvements in the small-scale technology have had in changing the private and social optimality of choice.     

Who Will Pay for Long‐Term Care in the UK? Projections Linking Macro‐ and Micro‐Simulation Models

The long‐term care funding system continues to attract much debate in the UK. We produce projections of state and private long‐term care expenditure and analyse the distributional impact of state‐financed care, through innovative linking of macro‐ and micro‐simulation models. Variant assumptions about life expectancy, dependency and care costs are examined and the impact of universal state‐financed (‘free’) personal care, based on need but not ability to pay, is investigated. We find that future long‐term care expenditure is subject to considerable uncertainty and is particularly sensitive to assumed future trends in real input costs. On a central set of assumptions, free personal care would, by 2051, increase public spending on long‐term care from 1.1 per cent of GDP to 1.3 per cent, or more if it generated an increase in demand. Among the care‐home population aged 85 or over, the immediate beneficiaries of free personal care would be those with relatively high incomes.     

Are Suburban Firms More Likely to Discriminate against African-Americans?

This paper assesses whether African-Americans are more likely to experience employment discrimination in the suburbs relative to the central city. We compare central city–suburban differences in racial hiring outcomes for firms where whites are in charge of hiring to the comparable difference for firms where blacks are in charge of hiring. Both suburban black and white employers hire fewer blacks than their central-city counterparts. This geographic gap among black employers is at least as large as that of white employers. Assuming no discrimination by black employers in any location, this implies that the probability of experiencing discrimination does not vary over space. Black firms, however, are substantially more likely to hire black workers regardless of location.     

The European dimension of the digital economy

The economic performance of the European Union has taken on a new dimension in regard to the emerging “digital economy”. Usually, it is argued that the EU lags behind the United States in most aspects of the use and diffusion of information and communication technologies (ICT). This paper argues that there are serious challenges confronting the EU in dealing with the digital economy, especially in respect to education issues, consumer confidence and the avoidance of a “digital divide”. On the other hand it is pointed out that there has been tremendous progress in respect to the economic significance of electronic commerce, the development of (self-)regulatory mechanims and the creation of a modern policy framework. The content of this article is entirely the responsibility of the author and does not necessarily reflect the views of the BMWi or any EU institution.     

The fit between product market strategy and business model: implications for firm performance

We examine the fit between a firm's product market strategy and its business model. We develop a formal model in order to analyze the contingent effects of product market strategy and business model choices on firm performance. We investigate a unique, manually collected dataset, and find that novelty‐centered business models—coupled with product market strategies that emphasize differentiation, cost leadership, or early market entry—can enhance firm performance. Our data suggest that business model and product market strategy are complements, not substitutes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The mode of corporate diversification: Internal ventures versus acquisitions

This study investigates empirically the underlying motives for selecting the mode of corporate diversification and attempts to match the form of capital investments with a corresponding theoretical rationale for diversification. The empirical results seem to support both the transaction-costs rationale for diversification and the motive that arises from a firm's prior experience with each form of capital investment. However, the empirical findings are inconsistent with the explanation that is based on the owner-manager conflict of interest.     

A recursion relation for the probability of the paradox of voting

For alternatives x_i, i = 1,…, m, giving rise to m! linear preference orderings of which one is selected independently by each of N voters, a recursion relation is developed which expresses the probability that x_i is the Condorcet winner when there are N voters in terms of the probability of this event when there are N ? 1 voters. Hence the probabilities of the paradox of voting when N is odd, and of Condorcet indecision when N is even may be obtained. The relationship holds for any set of probabilities, or culture, governing the selection of the preference orderings by the voters.