Die Wahlabhängigkeit wirtschaftspolitischer Maßnahmen

Summary In the last years, some publications appeared where so-called political-economic cycles were postulated.Hubka andObermann in one of the last issues of Empirica tried to find empirical evidence for this theory from the economic development in Austria. An examination of the methods applied in this study shows: The result do not proof as a (secure) evidence for or against the existence of any cyclical setting of administered prices and public expenditures. Finally some conditions are discussed, which must be fulfilled to bring about cyclical economic policies; informational requirements are shown, which are important for empirical verification.     

Harrod's long‐range capital outlay as a stabilizer of Harrodian instability

Drawing on Harrod, Kalecki and Kaldor, this paper seeks to revive the view that ceteris paribus firms reduce investment if they have already built up high capacities relative to their assessment of the normal potential of their markets. This reaction introduces a fundamental stabilizing mechanism into the economy. The paper adapts the idea to a growth context and applies it to the neo‐Kaleckian baseline model with its Harrodian instability. It demonstrates that, in principle, a sufficiently strong feedback could stabilize the steady state.     

Annual patient and caregiver burden of oncology clinic visits for granulocyte-colony stimulating factor therapy in the US

Objective:

Prophylactic treatment with granulocyte-colony stimulating factors (G-CSFs) is indicated for chemotherapy patients with a significant risk of febrile neutropenia. This study estimates the annual economic burden on patients and caregivers of clinic visits for prophylactic G-CSF injections in the US.

Methods:

Annual clinic visits for prophylactic G-CSF injections (all cancers) were estimated from national cancer incidence, chemotherapy treatment and G-CSF utilization data, and G-CSF sales and pricing information. Patient travel times, plus time spent in the clinic, were estimated from patient survey responses collected during a large prospective cohort study (the Prospective Study of the Relationship between Chemotherapy Dose Intensity and Mortality in Early-Stage (I–III) Breast Cancer Patients). Economic models were created to estimate travel costs, patient co-pays and the economic value of time spent by patients and caregivers in G-CSF clinic visits.

Results:

Estimated total clinic visits for prophylactic G-CSF injections in the US were 1.713 million for 2015. Mean (SD) travel time per visit was 62 (50) min; mean (SD) time in the clinic was 41 (68) min. Total annual time for travel to and from the clinic, plus time at the clinic, is estimated at 4.9 million hours, with patient and caregiver time valued at $91.8 million ($228 per patient). The estimated cumulative annual travel distance for G-CSF visits is 60.2 million miles, with a total transportation cost of $28.9 million ($72 per patient). Estimated patient co-pays were $61.1 million, ～$36 per visit, $152 per patient. The total yearly economic impact on patients and caregivers is $182 million, ～$450 per patient.

Limitations:

Data to support model parameters were limited. Study estimates are sensitive to the assumptions used.

Conclusions:

The burden of clinic visits for G-CSF therapy is a significant addition to the total economic burden borne by cancer patients and their families.     

Applying the method of simulated moments to estimate a small agent-based asset pricing model

The paper takes a recent agent-based asset pricing model by Manzan and Westerhoff from the literature and applies the method of simulated moments to estimate its six parameters. In selecting the moments, the focus is on the fat tails and autocorrelation patterns of the daily returns of several stock market indices and foreign exchange rates. It is argued that it may be meaningful to abandon the econometrically optimal weighting matrix in the objective function and instead invoke the moments' t-statistics in an intuitively appealing way. This modification gives rise to estimations whose moment matching, given the model's parsimony, can be largely considered to be satisfactory. Also the parameter estimates across different markets make good economic sense.     

The impact of forecasting on operational performance: Mediation effects through flexibility enablers

Literature has devoted increasing attention to the problem of supply and demand management in uncertain contexts. Only limited contributions, however, can be found regarding the interaction between forecasting and flexibility enablers to manage demand as well as regarding the flexibility enablers’ effect on company performance. We will discuss the impacts of flexibility and forecasting on dynamic interactions. The aim of this work is to study the mediation effect of forecasting through flexibility enablers on company performance, i.e., customer satisfaction and cost efficiency. Our results provide evidence that the relationship between forecasting and customer satisfaction is mainly due to process flow management, while the relationship with cost efficiency is mainly due to layout.     

The performance of venture capital investments: Do investors overreact?

Using a unique proprietary data set of over 5400 realized and unrealized venture capital investments between 1980 and 2005, we examine the impact of demand-related factors, e.g. entrepreneurial activity, as well as supply-related factors, i.e. money provided by VC investors, on the return of individual VC investments. This way, we are able to shed more light on the question whether volatile VC investment returns are rather driven by fundamental changes with regard to the number of attractive investment opportunities or by the overreaction by investors. We find that rising demand for VC, i.e. an increase in entrepreneurial activity, results initially in higher returns. However, our results also indicate that overreaction on the supply side can be observed, destroying deal-level results. Overfunding, specifically overinvesting seems to be a recurring characteristic of the VC industry. In fact, contra-cyclical investment strategies yield highest deal-level returns.     

EU telecommunications and electricity markets—Heading towards price convergence?

This paper investigates the sources of intra-EU price dispersion in two important network industries, namely telecommunications and electricity. Both sectors experienced substantial regulatory reforms over the past couple of years, resulting in the widespread introduction of competition in traditionally monopolistic markets. The empirical results reported in this paper confirm that the introduction of competition in these sectors resulted in significant downward price effects. Further progress with regulatory reforms in telecommunications and electricity is likely to result in further price falls in these sectors and reduced price level differences across EU Member States. The content of this article is entirely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the European Central Bank.     

Water supply and sanitation in urban South Africa: Getting it right during the transition and beyond

Water and sanitation institutions face major challenges to extend services to those who do not yet receive them, while maintaining financial viability and sustainability, and safeguarding the environment. Meeting these challenges effectively will require that institutions are rationalised; that sensible minimum standards for levels of service and appropriate goals for levels of service are established; that sound investment programmes are set up; that rational tariff policies are implemented; that capital finance is raised effectively; that institutional capacity is developed and the customer interface transformed; that appropriate legislation and methods of monitoring performance are developed; and that compromises on environmental issues are based on well‐informed analysis. Policy proposals in these key areas are put forward in this article to stimulate debate and to guide institutional transformation during the transition and in the longer term.     

Uncertainty and stress in an R&D project environment

Abstract
R&D project managers work in an environment in which the uncertainty and complexity of engineering development problems are an important source of episodic job stress. A study of the US. Navy's top major project R&D managers (N = 118) was conducted to test the use of various coping skills and social support as preventive stress management techniques for this population. It was found that perceived environmental uncertainty (PEU) had a direct, positive effect on psychological distress of these project managers while social support had a therapeutic effect on their experience of burnout. While problem focussed coping had a small, positive effect on burnout, neither coping skills nor social support were found to have a primary prevention effect upon perceived environmental uncertainty (PEU).
Engineering managers engaged in high technology R&D are confronted by a wide range of uncertainties, risks and changing demands that give rise to the stress response with its attendant physiological and psychological changes (Asterita, 1985). Adams (1980) has argued that an episodic versus chronic dichotomy of stressors is valuable because it distinguishes between intermittent stressors of finite duration (episodic) and ongoing stressors of indeterminant duration (chronic). This article reports the results of a study of uncertainty as an episodic work stressor for the U.S. Navy's high technology R&D project managers. The results suggest that R&D project managers should develop social support systems and structures to maintain well-being and avert distress and strain.