Housing price fluctuations and financial risk transmission: a spatial economic model

Financial risk derived from housing price fluctuations in China garnered much public concern recently. Based on the theoretical analyses of the transmission of financial risk from housing price fluctuations, this paper establishes panel spatial Durbin models to empirically analyse housing price fluctuations and financial risks transmission from a spatial economic perspective. Employing the panel provincial data from 1999–2015, we conduct an analysis on the 30 provinces in China as well as a comparison among the Eastern, Middle and Western regions of China. The results indicate that: (1) The soaring housing prices driven by bank credit, real estate developers’ heavy investment, local governments’ land revenue and individuals and households demands leads to financial risk in various sectors; (2) due to the ‘substitution effect’, the capital agglomeration in metropolis from bank credits, real estate developers, and individuals and households furthers the amassment of financial risks; (3) housing prices have a significant spatial contagion effect throughout the country, and financial risk could directly transmit across provinces through housing price fluctuations; (4) financial risks could indirectly transmit across provinces via the ‘imitative behaviour’ or ‘driving effect’ of different sectors for different regions of China.     

知识分享的动机与途径研究述评

知识经济时代,有效的知识管理成为企业获取成功的关键,而知识分享则是成功的知识管理的核心.文章从知识分享的途径和动机两方面对相关研究成果进行了梳理与述评,构建了一个知识分享的整合性模型,并对未来研究进行了简要展望,以供后续相关研究参考.     

基于回归分析法的南京市耕地面积变化影响因素分析

首先主要运用Excel预测南京市耕地面积减少的趋势;其次,通过文献阅读确定影响南京市耕地面积变化的影响因素,进而利用统计学方法建立了耕地面积与各个影响因素之间的回归分析模型;然后对模型所得结果的相关性进行统计性分析,剔除可能具有相关性的影响因素;最后把对各影响因素在南京市耕地面积变化的过程中按所起的正、负相关影响进行归类分析。旨在为南京市在抑制耕地面积锐减现象对相关因素的控制上提供相关的参考依据。     

上市公司业绩综合评价方法评述

随着我国证券市场的日益规范化和上市公司数目量的急剧增长,上市公司的综合业绩已成为股东、债权人、经理人员、供应商、雇员和工会乃至中介机构关心的主要问题,正确、公允地评价上市公司综合业绩已成为有关各方的共识。本文对国内外有关上市公司综合评价的典型方法进行了介绍和评析,为研究适合我国上市公司的业绩综合评价方法提供一定的借鉴,以期对我国正在开展的相关实践有所帮助。     

内部控制、治理环境与投资者保护

本文研究了内部控制质量对投资者保护的影响,以及不同治理环境对内部控制治理功能的影响。研究发现:内部控制质量的提高,或更为充分的内控信息披露有助于抑制大股东资金占用,有助于抑制经理人与股东之间的代理成本;治理环境越差的地区,内部控制治理效应越高。这说明,对于投资者保护较弱的地区,内部控制可能成为补偿弱投资者保护负面影响的一种替代机制。本文研究意味着,近年来推出的内部控制相关制度起到了积极的效果;此外,完善上市公司内部控制,对于治理环境较差、投资者利益得不到有效保障的地区显得尤为重要。     

Development of onshore wind energy utilisation in Germany

Onshore wind energy utilisation in Germany has developed very dynamically in the last decade. This has mainly been driven by the renewable energy laws that systematically support the expansion of renewable energy in the electricity sector. In 2009 a revised law with increased feed-in tariffs for wind energy has come into force. Existing studies already predict a wide range of development patterns under the Renewable Energy Sources Acts 2000 and 2004. This paper investigates the long term impact of different feed-in tariffs implemented by the legislative authorities and it provides corresponding future development patterns of onshore wind energy utilisation in Germany. The underlying System Dynamics model considers technical as well as economic conditions and constraints. The approach and the model’s results are contrasted with other published predictions qualitatively and quantitatively. This comparison shows that the model’s outcome lies in the range of predictions by existing studies, but also shows some interesting differences.

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Zusammenfassung  Die Entwicklung der Windenergienutzung in Deutschland wahrend der letzten Dekade verlief sehr dynamisch. MagBgeblich dafur war die systematische Forde-rung mittels der Erneuerbare Energien Gesetze (EEG) bzw. deren Vorlaufer. Vom Jahr 2009 an gilt ein uberarbeitetes Gesetz, welches u.a. erhohte Einspeisever-gutungen furWindenergie beinhaltet.Vorliegende Studien, die sich mit derzu-kunftigen Entwicklung auseinandersetzten, zeigen bereits deutlich unterschied-liche Szenarien fur die Entwicklung unter dem EEG 2000 und 2004. Diese Arbeit setzt sich mit den langfristigen Auswirkungen der verschiedenen vom Gesetz-geber festgelegten Einspeisetarife auseinander und stellt entsprechend unter-schiedliche Ausbauszenarien fur die deutsche Onshore Windenergienutzung dar. Das zugrunde liegende System Dynamics Modell berucksichtigt dabei sowohl technische als auch okonomische Parameter. Der Ansatz sowie die Ergebnisse werden anderen veroffentlichten Prognosen gegenubergestellt. Die Ergebnisse liegen innerhalb der Spannbreite der anderen berucksichtigten Studien, zei-gen jedoch auch interessante Unterschiede.

     

高职网络专业技能型创新人才培养方案的研究

以哈尔滨金融高等专科学校计算机网络技术专业为研究对象。提出了高职院校计算机网络专业的课程体系建设。从计算机网络技术专业具体培养目标,人才岗位分析,课程体系构建的基本思路到具体实施,教学内容改革,实验环境及师资建设等方面,对高职计算机网络技术专业技能型创新人才培养方案进行了积极的探索与研究。     

A regime-switching term structure model with observable state variables

The paper proposes in a regime-shift framework, an arbitrage-free term structure model based on the target and Fed Funds Rates. Empirical observations suggest that a three-state regime-shift environment associated with FOMC monetary actions is justified. Then, a closed-form solution for zero-coupon bonds is derived where regime-shift risk is priced. The solution is flexible enough to incorporate additional state variables.     

Optimal model averaging forecasting in high-dimensional survival analysis

This article considers ultrahigh-dimensional forecasting problems with survival response variables. We propose a two-step model averaging procedure for improving the forecasting accuracy of the true conditional mean of a survival response variable. The first step is to construct a class of candidate models, each with low-dimensional covariates. For this, a feature screening procedure is developed to separate the active and inactive predictors through a marginal Buckley–James index, and to group covariates with a similar index size together to form regression models with survival response variables. The proposed screening method can select active predictors under covariate-dependent censoring, and enjoys sure screening consistency under mild regularity conditions. The second step is to find the optimal model weights for averaging by adapting a delete-one cross-validation criterion, without the standard constraint that the weights sum to one. The theoretical results show that the delete-one cross-validation criterion achieves the lowest possible forecasting loss asymptotically. Numerical studies demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed variable screening and model averaging procedures over existing methods.     

煤层气井注入/压降试井工艺方法及存在的问题

目前在确定煤层气井的渗透率及储层参数时,广泛采用注入／压降测试的方法,单项注入／压降测试是目前煤层气勘探开发中最常用、最有效的试井方法。本文全面阐述了煤层气井注入／压降试井的施工工艺、施工工艺中存在的问题。