Formulating Hypotheses Graphically in Social Research

This article explores the proposition that the appropriate use of suitable forms of graphic communication can improve the formulation and presentation of hypotheses in quantitative social science research. The creative nature of scientific diagrams is discussed and the technological advances in computer graphic media are seen as part of a visual revolution which is markedly changing not only the way we see things but also the way we think and do things today. Brief historical views on the use of hypotheses and diagrammatic languages in science are given. The restricted use of graphic communication tools in social research academic documents is discussed and the importance of using well-designed data graphics in the production and transmission of scientific knowledge is highlighted. Hypotheses are conceptualised and their importance within social research is emphasised. A methodological approach for formulating hypotheses graphically is proposed based on the use of three types of language: notation, statement (ordinary language) and diagram. Some criteria are suggested for the selection of diagram type dependent on the related variables. Several examples are given covering the different models proposed.     

Networks of Value‐added Trade

Global value chains (GVCs) require new methods for evaluating interconnections among countries, which can no longer be accurately appraised by standard bilateral gross trade flows. This paper uses tools of network analysis to examine the evolution of value‐added trade from 1995 to 2011. GVCs are very centralised and asymmetric networks, with a few large economies acting as hubs, which exposes them to the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks. As GVCs expanded, the networks of foreign value added in exports became denser, more complex and intensively connected. The regional dimension of GVCs is still dominant but is progressively giving place to a more global network. Networks of foreign value added in goods exports outpace those of services exports. However, foreign inputs of services are important for exports of both goods and services. There is a striking rise of China as a supplier of value added, while Germany and the United States maintain a central role in GVCs over the whole period.     

Household Determinants of the Adoption of Improved Cassava Varieties using DNA Fingerprinting to Identify Varieties in Farmer Fields: A Case Study in Colombia

We examine factors affecting the adoption of improved cassava varieties of 217 households in the Cauca Department in southwest Colombia. Using DNA fingerprinting through Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs), we identified different cultivars in farmers fields. We also used this information to remove possible bias in the adoption model that could have resulted from a misclassification of improved varieties (IVs). As a result, we found that farmers substantially overestimate their use of IVs and there are important differences in the determinants of adoption between farmer self‐identification and DNA fingerprinting. This finding implies that the incorporation of DNA fingerprinting in IV adoption studies is important to ensure the accuracy of future agricultural economic research and the relevance of subsequent policy recommendations.     

Targeted transfers and the fiscal response to the great recession

Between 2007 and 2009, government expenditures increased rapidly across the OECD countries. While economic research on the impact of government purchases has flourished, in the data, most of the increase in expenditures was in government transfers. After documenting this fact, we argue that future research should focus on the positive impact of transfers. Towards this, we present a model in which there is no representative agent and Ricardian equivalence does not hold because of uncertainty, imperfect credit markets, and nominal rigidities. Targeted lump-sum transfers are expansionary both because of a neoclassical wealth effect and because of a Keynesian aggregate demand effect.     

Neighbors and the evolution of the comparative advantage of nations: Evidence of international knowledge diffusion?

The literature on knowledge diffusion shows that knowledge decays strongly with distance. In this paper we document that the probability that a product is added to a country's export basket is, on average, 65% larger if a neighboring country is a successful exporter of that same product. For existing products, growth of exports in a country is 1.5% higher per annum if it has a neighbor with comparative advantage in these products. While these results could be driven by a common third factor that escapes our controls, they align with our expectations of the localized character of knowledge diffusion.     

Domestic and international research joint ventures: The effect of collusion

We analyze the effect of research joint ventures (RJVs) on consumer welfare in an international context when collusion can occur. Our results suggest that antitrust authorities should distinguish between domestic and international RJVs and be more benevolent with international RJVs.     

The connectivity of infrastructure networks and the urban space of São Paulo in the 1990s

This article explores the strategic importance of information systems for social control of networked services on urban and regional scales, and the nature of the information required for that purpose. The standard indicators of infrastructure coverage – by and large based on the number and encompassment of connections – no longer respond to the real conditions of supply and consumption. The technological and managerial innovations in flow control and dispatch, along with the effects of combined access to multi‐mode networks, render the evaluation of services’ connectivity considerably more complex than it used to be in the past. Private domination over the supply structure of these services tends to make the political struggle for equitability more dependent on the technical reliability of information than it could have been under the model of state supply. Networked services’ management has evolved to a more demand‐oriented structure, but this structure has so far reproduced the structural inequalities of Brazilian society in favor of powerful stakeholders, e.g. large consumers. The potential for more democratic control associated with this new balance between supply and demand in networked services can only evolve if more vulnerable social groups have access to sound technological and managerial information. To support this idea the article shows the importance of connectivity indicators in determining the effective access to networked utilities in the Metropolitan Area of São Paulo, in contrast to the traditional indicators of services’ coverage. Cet article explore l’importance stratégique des systémes d’information pour le contrôle social des services de réseaux au niveau urbain et régional, et la nature de l’information nécessaire pour cela. Les indicateurs habituels du niveau d’information sur l’infrastructure – généralement basés sur le nombre et la compréhension des relations – ne répondent plus aux conditions réelles de provision et de consommation. Les nouveautés de technologie et de gestion dans le contrôle du mouvement et dans les expéditions, ainsi que les effets de l’accés joint aux réseaux à modes multiples, rendent l’évaluation des liens entre les services beaucoup plus complexe que précédemment. La domination de la structure de provision de ces services par le domaine privé a tendance à rendre la lutte politique pour la justice plus dépendante de la fiabilité des informations qu’elle aurait pu l’? tre dans le modéle de provision par l’état. La gestion des services de réseaux a évolué vers une structure orientée vers la demande, mais jusqu’à présent cette structure a reproduit les inégalités structurelles de la société brésilienne qui favorise des détenteurs de pouvoir, par exemple les gros consommateurs. Les possibilités d’un contrôle plus démocratique associéà cet équilibre nouveau entre la provision et la demande dans les services de réseaux ne peut se développer que si les groupes sociaux les plus vulnérables ont accés à une information technologique et gestionnaire fiable. Pour soutenir cette opinion, l’article démontre l’importance des indicateurs de rapports pour déterminer des conditions d’accés efficaces aux entreprises de service de réseaux dans la région métropolitaine de Sao Paulo, au contraire des indicateurs traditionnels de l’information des services.     

Assessing ethical behaviours in the Spanish banking and insurance industries: evidence and challenges

This study aims to improve understanding of the ethical nature of the relations in two labour-intensive industries to facilitate the creation of an ethical culture. For this purpose, the authors first review literature related to the main influences on ethical behaviour, then perform an empirical analysis of those factors using a hierarchical stepwise regression of a database of 525 banking and insurance employees. Contrary to expectations, leadership has a less important effect on ethical behaviour than other organizational factors. The results reveal several implications for improving the management of ethical behaviour in these industries.     

The use of Fx derivatives and the cost of capital: Evidence of Brazilian companies

Large corporations have been using derivative instruments as a tool to protect their indirect exposure, as FX risks. A sample with 47 non-financial Bovespa Listed Brazilian companies from 2004 and 2010 was used to test the hypothesis that use of derivatives as a risk management policy tool reduces companies' cost of capital. In contrast to other countries, results rejected this hypothesis, showing that in Brazil there is a positive relationship between using these tools and cost of capital. However, a more in-depth analysis based on the TACC model for a Brazilian company, this hypothesis was not rejected after the 2008 crisis.