Box‐Office Demand: The Importance of Being #1

We propose a theoretical framework to understand the effect on a movie's eventual theatrical success of leading the box office during the opening weekend. We consider two possible channels: a positive shock to the utility from watching the movie and a greater awareness of the movie's existence. We derive a series of testable predictions, which we test on U.S. box office data. The results suggest that being #1 in sales during the opening weekend has an economically and statistically significant effect on the movie's total demand; and that the primary channel for this effect is through the greater awareness induced by being #1.     

Money and capital as competing media of exchange

We construct a model where capital competes with fiat money as a medium of exchange, and establish conditions on fundamentals under which fiat money can be both valued and socially beneficial. When the socially efficient stock of capital is too low to provide the liquidity agents need, they overaccumulate productive assets to use as media of exchange. When this is the case, there exists a monetary equilibrium that dominates the nonmonetary one in terms of welfare. Under the Friedman Rule, fiat money provides just enough liquidity so that agents choose to accumulate the same capital stock a social planner would.     

Can univariate models forecast turning points in seasonal economic time series?

Based on a particular class of recently developed unobserved component models with, time varying parameters, the objectives of this paper are two-fold. On the one hand, we propose an alternative measure of underlying growth based on our estimated trend derivative with no need for any further transformations. Additionally, using the information embedded on the trend derivative, we provide a simple method for improving quantitative point forecasts in the vicinity of turning points. Empirical applications are presented for a set of seasonal monthly economic indicators of the Spanish economy.     

Some benefits of cyclical monetary policy

We show that modeling monetary circulation and cyclical activity offers insights about monetary policy that cannot be had in representative-agent models. Two fundamental ideas emerge: (i) the reflux of money back to the hands of those making current expenditures can be inefficient, and (ii) expansionary policy may accommodate more trade during high-demand seasons, at the expense of less trade in low-demand seasons and a less valuable currency. The paper provides a foundation for the optimality of a cyclical monetary policy. We thank Steve Williamson and, especially, an anonymous referee for helpful comments, as well as insightful discussions in presentations at the Cleveland Fed (2003), University of Iowa (2004), Queen’s University (2004), and more recently at the Chicago Fed, the New York Fed, the Institute of Advanced Studies, Simon Fraser University and the Universities of Vienna, British Columbia, and Victoria.     

The contribution of yoga to the entrepreneurial potential of university students: a SEM approach

The literature suggests that all entrepreneurs share certain psychological and cognitive characteristics. Yoga is currently experiencing a surge in popularity due to both the physical and psychological benefits gained by yogi (practitioners of yoga). Irrespective of its more philosophical dimension, changes attributable to yoga have been identified in individuals’ psychological and behavioural patterns. It is in this context that this study analyses the characteristics associated both with entrepreneurs and yogis, seeking to specifically understand the respective personal attributes or the psychological and cognitive predispositions of both groups. The results of this study demonstrate that students who do engage in yoga show a propensity towards or strengthening of the psychological and cognitive attributes that are commonly associated with an entrepreneurial profile. Thus the study suggests that if entrepreneurial behaviour is a priority, then yoga should be integrated as a compulsory subject into general education from the primary school onwards.     

Assessing Organizational Adoption of Information Systems Outsourcing

The information systems outsourcing (ISO) field continues to grow, as organizations consistently seek improvements in IT activities. The global scope of outsourcing participation and growth leads to gaps of knowledge related to the contextual factors that influence ISO adoption. Using the technology-organization-environment (TOE) framework, this study identifies and contextualizes the determinants of ISO adoption. Data collected from 261 firms suggest that relative advantage, firm size, top management support, and competitive pressure are the main determinants of ISO. This study highlights the importance of assessing ISO using the TOE theoretical lens, and offers replication of prior results, the lack of which is a growing concern in social science research.     

A story to sell: The influence of storytelling on consumers' purchasing behavior

Storytelling can arouse consumers' emotions and affect purchasing behavior through desires and attitudes. While the marketing literature discusses storytelling, there is a lack of consensus because of the diverse conceptual and operational definitions used. To untangle the complexities and consolidate the fragmented knowledge about storytelling in marketing, this research examines how the marketing literature has addressed the influence of storytelling on consumers' purchasing behavior. The findings aid in understanding how the topic has been discussed from a marketing perspective in consumer behavior studies. Through a systematic literature review using a bibliometric analysis, we demonstrate that the marketing literature features four strands about the uses of storytelling to influence consumers' purchasing behavior. First, storytelling stimulates the consumer's identification with the brand. Second, storytelling allows consumers to experience emotional value. Third, storytelling supports engagement behaviors. Finally, storytelling has a downside in that it also propagates harmful speech. This study concludes with a roadmap for future research about how storytelling impacts consumers' purchasing behavior.     

Nonparametric methods and local‐time‐based estimation for dynamic power law distributions

This paper introduces nonparametric econometric methods that characterize general power law distributions under basic stability conditions. These methods extend the literature on power laws in the social sciences in several directions. First, we show that any stationary distribution in a random growth setting is shaped entirely by two factors: the idiosyncratic volatilities and reversion rates (a measure of cross‐sectional mean reversion) for different ranks in the distribution. This result is valid regardless of how growth rates and volatilities vary across different economic agents, and hence applies to Gibrat's law and its extensions. Second, we present techniques to estimate these two factors using panel data. Third, we describe how our results imply predictability as higher‐ranked processes must on average grow more slowly than lower‐ranked processes. We employ our empirical methods using data on commodity prices and show that our techniques accurately describe the empirical distribution of relative commodity prices. We also show that rank‐based out‐of‐sample forecasts of future commodity prices outperform random‐walk forecasts at a 1‐month horizon.     

The Impact of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills on Professional Salaries in An Emerging Economy,Chile

Professional salaries in Chile are here explained on the basis not only of traditional human capital variables but also of variables indicative of other cognitive and noncognitive skills. As might be expected, college entrance scores (SAT), our measure of advanced cognitive skills, are found to impact strongly and nonlinearly on salaries. More surprisingly, ranking in one's high school graduation class raises one's salary 10 years later by the equivalent of one year of additional experience, suggesting that ranking stands for a more permanent noncognitive skill such as effort or self‐discipline. As is typically found, women earn less than men, but, to our surprise, they also have lower asking salaries than men.