Social Comparisons in Ultimatum Bargaining

Experiments are used to examine the effects of social comparisons in ultimatum bargaining. We inform responders about the average offer before they decide whether to accept or reject their specific offer. This significantly increases offers and offer‐specific rejection probabilities. For comparison, we consider another change in informational conditions: telling responders the total pie is $30—ex ante it was either $15 or $30—affects offers and rejection probabilities roughly as much. Our results are consistent with people’s dislike for deviations from the norm of equity but inconsistent with fairness theories, where people dislike income disparity between themselves and their referents.     

今年中国贸易顺差增速料将放缓

2007年中国贸易顺差上升近50％，达到创纪录的2620亿美元，但在去年最后3个月，进口增速均超过了出口增速，表明存在争议的外汇储备大幅上升期可能正渐近结束。     

通胀对日本的影响

有种流行的观点认为，既然日本在上个世纪90年代曾饱受通货紧缩之苦，那么该国经济应当会从物价飙升中受益。这话只说对了一半。和其他国家一样，大宗商品价格上涨推动下的通货膨胀也同样会危害到日本的经济增长。     

Budget deficits and real interest rates: Updated empirical evidence on causality

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, the paper empirically examines the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade long term tax free municipal bonds in the U.S. To clarify this deficit or interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary budget deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. In a model that includes federal personal income tax rates and net international capital flows, as well as money supply growth, the ECM estimates strongly suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real interest rate yield. Budget deficits apparently do matter! William Simon's concerns were justified.The author is indebted to P. A. V. B. Swamy for ideas and helpful suggestions and Will Perry for data assembly and processing.     

Pricing Options on an Asset with Bernoulli Jump-Diffusion Returns

The price movements of certain assets can be modeled by stochastic processes that combine continuous diffusion with discrete jumps. This paper compares values of options on assets with no jumps, jumps of fixed size, and jumps drawn from a lognormal distribution. It is shown that not only the magnitude but also the direction of the mispricing of the Black-Scholes model relative to jump models can vary with the distribution family of the jump component. This paper also discusses a methodology for the numerical valuation, via a backward induction algorithm, of American options on a jump-diffusion asset whose early exercise may be profitable. These cannot, in general, be accurately priced using analytic models. The procedure has the further advantage of being easily adaptable to nonanalytic, empirical distributions of period returns and to nonstationarity in the underlying diffusion process.     

The effects of mergers on price and output: Two case studies from the airline industry

The literature on industrial organization contains very little direct evidence on the effects of actual mergers. This study estimates the effects of two recent airline mergers approved by the Department of Transportation over the objection of the Department of Justice. The merger of TWA and Ozark appears to have caused a slight increase in fares and a far greater reduction in service on city pairs out of St Louis. The merger of Northwest and Republic appears to have caused a significant increase in fares and a significant reduction in overall service on city pairs out of Minneapolis-St Paul.