The National State and Identity Politics: State Institutionalisation and “Markers” of National Identity

Nationality has been a key identity in international relations for much of the modern period, and the marriage of “nation” and “state” produced a powerful polity – the national state – that dominated global politics. This article investigates the forces that “pushed” and “pulled” nations and states together and explores the factors associated with violent identity politics. It argues that while recent decades have witnessed increasing instances of divorce between “nation” and “state” and a simultaneous proliferation of identity conflicts, the likelihood that identity conflicts will be expressed violently depends both on the character of the state (the timing of state institutionalisation relative to the construction of national consciousness, the democratic or non-democratic nature of the state, and the national or non-national basis for the legitimation of state authority) and on the principal “marker” used to construct national identity (blood, language, culture, religion, or citizenship).     

What do professional forecasters actually predict?

This paper studies what professional forecasters predict. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into trend, business cycle, and irregular components. We examine which components are captured by professional forecasters by regressing their forecasts on the estimated components extracted from both the spectral analysis and the state space model. For both decomposition methods, we find that, in the short run, the Survey of Professional Forecasters can predict almost all of the variation in the time series due to the trend and the business cycle, but that the forecasts contain little or no significant information about the variation in the irregular component.     

Structural production layer decomposition: a new method to measure differences between MRIO databases for footprint assessments

Recent empirical assessments revealed that footprint indicators calculated with various multi-regional input–output (MRIO) databases deliver deviating results. In this paper, we propose a new method, called structural production layer decomposition (SPLD), which complements existing structural decomposition approaches. SPLD enables differentiating between effects stemming from specific parts in the technology matrix, e.g. trade blocks vs. domestic blocks, while still allowing to link the various effects to the total region footprint. Using the carbon footprint of the EU-28 in 2011 as an example, we analyse the differences between EXIOBASE, Eora, GTAP and WIOD. Identical environmental data are used across all MRIO databases. In all model comparisons, variations in domestic blocks have a more significant impact on the carbon footprint than variations in trade blocks. The results provide a wealth of information for MRIO developers and are relevant for policy makers designing climate policy measures targeted to specific stages along product supply chains.     

USING LEGISLATION TO REDUCE ONE‐TIME PLASTIC BAG USAGE

Plastic bag litter generates serious environmental concerns and poses a risk to wildlife. As this does not seem to be a problem which can be resolved by the private sector alone, or by ‘Coasean’ negotiation, legislation is proposed, particularly focusing on ‘one‐use’ bags. This article surveys legislation worldwide, while concentrating on lessons from the United States and the United Kingdom. The issues are more complex than is often assumed. While environmentalists argue for restriction and ultimate elimination of one‐use bags, manufacturers, especially those that have reformulated the composition of their bags, see legislation as an overreaction to a problem that is already being addressed within the industry. They cite evidence that, when used within a comprehensive recycling programme, plastic bags are not only cost‐effective but a sound use of our limited resources. Bans or restrictions can have knock‐on effects which can create new problems.     

Licensing and innovation with imperfect contract enforcement

Licensing promotes technology transfer and innovation, but enforcement of licensing contracts is often imperfect. We model contract enforcement as a game with perfect information but probabilistic enforcement and explore the implications of weak enforcement on the design of licensing contracts, the conduct of firms, and market performance. An upstream firm develops a technology that it can license to downstream firms using a fixed fee and a per‐unit royalty. Strictly positive per‐unit royalties maximize the licensor's profit if competition among licensees limits joint profits. With imperfect enforcement, the licensor lowers variable royalties to avoid cheating. Although imperfect contract enforcement reduces the profits of the licensor, weak enforcement lowers prices, increases downstream innovation, and in some circumstances can increase total economic welfare.     

PITFALLS IN CROSS‐SECTION STUDIES WITH INTEGRATED REGRESSORS: A SURVEY AND NEW DEVELOPMENTS

In cross‐section studies, if the dependent variable is I(0) but the regressor is I(1), the true slope must be zero in the resulting “unbalanced regression.” A spuriously significant relationship may be found in large cross‐sections, however, if the integrated regressor is related to a stationary variable that enters the DGP but is omitted from the regression. The solution is to search for the related stationary variable, in some cases the first difference of the integrated regressor, in other cases, a categorical variable that can take on limited number of values which depend on the integrated variable. We present an extensive survey, new developments, and applications particularly in finance.     

Does Exporting Increase Productivity? A Microeconometric Analysis of Matched Firms

Exporting involves sunk costs, so some firms export whilst others do not. This proposition derives from a number of models of firm behavior and has been exposed to microeconometric analysis. Evidence from the latter suggests that exporting firms are generally more productive than nonexporters. They self‐select, in that they are more productive before they enter export markets, but the evidence suggests that entry does not make them any more productive. This paper investigates exporting and firm performance for a large panel of UK manufacturing firms, applying matching techniques. The authors find that exporters are more productive and they do self‐select. In contrast to other evidence, however, exporting further increases firm productivity.     

Possible economic impacts of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation: an application of <Emphasis Type="Italic">FUND</Emphasis>

Climate change can lead to a substantial reduction of the strength of the thermohaline circulation in the world oceans. This is often thought to have severe consequences particularly on the North Atlantic region and Northern and Western Europe. The integrated assessment model FUND is used to estimate the extent of these impacts. The results indicate that, owing to a slower warming (rather than cooling) of the regions most affected by a thermohaline circulation collapse, climate change induced damages in these regions would be smaller in case of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation. However, even with a thermohaline circulation collapse, the total and marginal impacts of climate change are negative.JEL Classification: Q510, Q540We are grateful to Till Kuhlbrodt for providing the CLIMBER data and to Andre Krebber for processing them. The German Federal Ministry for Education and Research through the INTEGRATION project, the US National Science Foundation through the Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change (SBR-9521914) and the Michael Otto Foundation provided welcome financial support.