Large sample estimation and testing procedures for dynamic equation systems

Joint two-step estimation procedures which have the same asymptotic properties as the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator are developed for the final equation, transfer function and structural form of a multivariate dynamic model with normally distributed vector-moving average errors. The ML estimator under fixed and known initial values is obtained by iterating the procedure until convergence. The asymptotic distribution of the two-step estimators is used to construct large sample testing procedures for the different forms of the model.     

Forecasting the demand for an employee Park and Ride service using commuters' stated choices

This paper uses Stated Choice (SC) data to forecast the demand for an employee Park and Ride service. Since it is well known that SC data contain sources of variation not present in Revealed Preference data we pay special attention to the scaling of the SC model. The results show that the modal shift away from parking-on site will be small unless the new service is accompanied by measures aimed at making parking on-site less attractive such as introducing parking charges.     

Mixed logit estimation of willingness to pay distributions: a comparison of models in preference and WTP space using data from a health-related choice experiment

Different approaches to modelling the distribution of WTP are compared using stated preference data on Tanzanian Clinical Officers’ job choices and mixed logit models. The standard approach of specifying the distributions of the coefficients and deriving WTP as the ratio of two coefficients (estimation in preference space) is compared to specifying the distributions for WTP directly at the estimation stage (estimation in WTP space). The models in preference space fit the data better than the corresponding models in WTP space although the difference between the best fitting models in the two estimation regimes is minimal. Moreover, the willingness to pay estimates derived from the preference space models turn out to be very high for many of the job attributes. The results suggest that sensitivity testing using a variety of model specifications, including estimation in WTP space, is recommended when using mixed logit models to estimate willingness to pay distributions.     

Banking and Debt Crises in Europe: The Dangerous Liaisons?

The potential mutation of the Sub-Prime banking crisis into a sovereign debt one in Euro area countries is investigated. After reviewing the criteria used to measure the debt vulnerability, the balance sheet approach is presented in order to illustrate the potential connections between these two types of crises. A graphical analysis yields evidence that at the end 2009 the probability of observing a Euro area country defaulting is less likely than six month before. Nevertheless, the serious threats, which concern Greece and Ireland, do not permit us to exclude the occurrence of a contagious, or self-fulfilling, sovereign debt or currency crises in Euro area in the future.     

Promotion speed and its effect on attrition of Navy-enlisted personnel: addressing heterogeneity in high school credentials

This article investigates the relationship between recruit quality and promotion speed of the US Navy's first-term enlisted personnel, which in turn is expected to affect retention. It also investigates whether there are quality differences between the various types of high school credentials presented at the time of recruitment, including test-based and attendance-based equivalencies and nontraditional high school diplomas. The results of this article suggest that the Navy's recent targeting of individuals with alternative high school credentials and nonhigh school graduates, who score in the top half of the Armed Forces Qualification Tests (AFQTs) as substitutes for diploma holders have desirable results for promotion speed but undesirable results for retention.     

Cointegration Testing in Panels with Common Factors*

Panel unit‐root and no‐cointegration tests that rely on cross‐sectional independence of the panel unit experience severe size distortions when this assumption is violated, as has, for example, been shown by Banerjee, Marcellino and Osbat [Econometrics Journal (2004), Vol. 7, pp. 322–340; Empirical Economics (2005), Vol. 30, pp. 77–91] via Monte Carlo simulations. Several studies have recently addressed this issue for panel unit‐root tests using a common factor structure to model the cross‐sectional dependence, but not much work has been done yet for panel no‐cointegration tests. This paper proposes a model for panel no‐cointegration using an unobserved common factor structure, following the study by Bai and Ng [Econometrica (2004), Vol. 72, pp. 1127–1177] for panel unit roots. We distinguish two important cases: (i) the case when the non‐stationarity in the data is driven by a reduced number of common stochastic trends, and (ii) the case where we have common and idiosyncratic stochastic trends present in the data. We discuss the homogeneity restrictions on the cointegrating vectors resulting from the presence of common factor cointegration. Furthermore, we study the asymptotic behaviour of some existing residual‐based panel no‐cointegration tests, as suggested by Kao [Journal of Econometrics (1999), Vol. 90, pp. 1–44] and Pedroni [Econometric Theory (2004a), Vol. 20, pp. 597–625]. Under the data‐generating processes (DGP) used, the test statistics are no longer asymptotically normal, and convergence occurs at rate T rather than as for independent panels. We then examine the possibilities of testing for various forms of no‐cointegration by extracting the common factors and individual components from the observed data directly and then testing for no‐cointegration using residual‐based panel tests applied to the defactored data.     

Central bank FOREX interventions assessed using realized moments

This paper assesses the impact of G3 official central bank interventions on daily realized moments of DEM/USD exchange rate returns obtained from intraday data, 1989–2001. Event studies of the realized moments for the intervention day, the days preceding and following the intervention illustrate the shape of this impact. Rolling regressions results for an AR(FI)MA model for realized moments are used to measure the impact and its significance. The analysis confirms previous empirical findings of a temporary increase of volatility after a coordinated central bank intervention. It highlights new findings on the timing and the temporary nature of the impact of coordinated interventions on exchange rate volatility and on cross-moments between foreign exchange markets.