The effect of the Kyoto Protocol on carbon dioxide emissions

In this paper, we investigate the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on world emissions of a greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide. We use a large unbalanced panel data consisting of 177 countries from 1980 to 2006. The key finding of this paper is that there are structural breaks in the data that demonstrate the effects of the international agreement. While carbon dioxide emissions declined for industrialized (Annex B) countries since the signing of the international agreement, the effect of income per capita is much larger during these years. However in the same period, the effect of industrial production has declined not just for industrialized countries but for developing countries as well. The results are robust to the exclusion of the US and Australia as Annex B countries since they had not ratified the protocol by 2006.     

Evaluating Social Policy by Experimental and Nonexperimental Methods

Although it is important to establish causal relationships in social policy evaluation, the effects are difficult to observe due to sample selection. To evaluate the performance of estimators designed to handle sample selection bias, we analyse data from a Norwegian rehabilitation project with a randomised experimental design. The data permit us to compare the performance of different nonexperimental estimators with the experimental results. In our case study we find that nonexperimental evaluation based on sample selection estimators with selection terms that fail to meet conventional levels of statistical significance is highly unreliable. The difference in difference estimator and propensity score matching estimators perform better in our context.
JEL classification : C 51; J 24; H 43; I 12     

On univariate time series methods and simultaneous equation econometric models

Systematic testing of the implications of the structural assumptions for the properties of the final equations and transfer functions associated with a dynamic econometric model, as proposed by Zellner and Palm (1974–1975), proved to be useful in model building. This paper contains several remarks on the use of univariate time series methods to empirically check out the implications of a linear dynamic simultaneous equation model.     

The Life Cycle of Daily Newspapers in The Netherlands: 1848–1997

In 1848 freedom of the press was written into the Constitution of the Kingdom of The Netherlands. This paper investigates the life cycle characteristics of the market for daily newspapers in The Netherlands since then. Life expectancy depends on the cyclical evolution of the number of daily newspapers through time. The life cycle of the competitive newspaper industry in The Netherlands is characterized by a turning period of turmoil during World War II. Models that aim at estimating the expected lifetime of newspapers should acknowledge the cyclical characteristics of the industry.     

The determinants of unemployment and jobsearch duration in The Netherlands

Summary This study investigates the determinants of individual unemployment and jobsearch duration and the size and direction of duration dependence in a proportional hazard model. New insights into the shape of the time dependence of unemployment duration are obtained using a semi-parametric baseline hazard specification in combination with a parametric (gamma) heterogeneity correction or with a semi-parametric heterogeneity correction. Registration data on unemployed individuals in The Netherlands in the period April 1987–May 1987 are used. For both sexes, the hazard rate quickly rises during the first five months, but then after the fifth month rapidly declines until the end of the first year of unemployment, not showing any clear tendency thereafter. Commonly used parametric specifications for the baseline hazard prove to be too restrictive. For men we discuss the influences of the regressors.We like to thank Simon Kuipers, Theo van de Klundert, Wiji Narendranathan, Mark Stewart and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper     

Studying co-movements in large multivariate data prior to multivariate modelling

For non-stationary vector autoregressive models (VAR hereafter, or VAR with moving average, VARMA hereafter), we show that the presence of common cyclical features or cointegration leads to a reduction of the order of the implied univariate autoregressive-integrated-moving average (ARIMA hereafter) models. This finding can explain why we identify parsimonious univariate ARIMA models in applied research although VAR models of typical order and dimension used in macroeconometrics imply non-parsimonious univariate ARIMA representations.     

Capital mobility, foreign aid, and openness: further panel data evidence from sub-Saharan Africa

This study uses several alternative panel data estimation techniques (pooled ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and random effects) to examine the effect of domestic savings, foreign aid, the evolution of capital mobility over time, and openness on investment rates for a sample of 29 sub-Saharan African countries over the time period 1980 to 2001. The empirical evidence suggests the presence of capital mobility in line with previous studies of developing economies and that capital mobility has gradually increased over time. Moreover, foreign aid and openness both have positive and significant impacts on investment rates.     

Cross-sectional dependence robust block bootstrap panel unit root tests

In this paper we consider the issue of unit root testing in cross-sectionally dependent panels. We consider panels that may be characterized by various forms of cross-sectional dependence including (but not exclusive to) the popular common factor framework. We consider block bootstrap versions of the group-mean (Im et al., 2003) and the pooled (Levin et al., 2002) unit root coefficient DF tests for panel data, originally proposed for a setting of no cross-sectional dependence beyond a common time effect. The tests, suited for testing for unit roots in the observed data, can be easily implemented as no specification or estimation of the dependence structure is required. Asymptotic properties of the tests are derived for T going to infinity and N finite. Asymptotic validity of the bootstrap tests is established in very general settings, including the presence of common factors and cointegration across units. Properties under the alternative hypothesis are also considered. In a Monte Carlo simulation, the bootstrap tests are found to have rejection frequencies that are much closer to nominal size than the rejection frequencies for the corresponding asymptotic tests. The power properties of the bootstrap tests appear to be similar to those of the asymptotic tests.