A new approach to peak load pricing

This paper explores an alternative method of ‘solving’ the problem of recurring time variable demands in a public utility context. It views the utility's load curve as a series of horizontal layers or ‘slices’ of varying lengths, rather than as a series of vertical slices as in the traditional approach. Several cases are examined, and traditional time-of-day pricing is shown to be inefficient or inapplicable in some of them, while ‘demand-layer’ pricing, based on horizontal slicing, is efficient. In still other cases, neither method of pricing is efficient.     

Forecasting foreign exchange rates: an expert judgment approach

Studies have indicated that forecasts by market experts can be more accurate than time series forecasts. This article describes a process for structuring an expert foreign exchange forecast using Saaty's Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The specific example developed is a forecast of the yen/dollar spot exchange rate from the standpoint of a company considering the desirability of arranging for forward exchange cover.     

Social security and consumer spending in an international cross section

This paper expands the base of empirical evidence on the social security aggregate private saving issue by examining the behavior of consumer expenditure in 16 industrialized countries over the 1951–60 period. The results are mixed in that time series movements of social security exhibit a positive relation to consumer spending, while the cross-sectional variations reveal a negative association. Our overall conclusion is that the cross-country evidence provides neither empirical support for the hypothesis that social security depresses private saving nor an empirical refutation of that hypothesis. We argue that this indeterminacy of results applies also to previous studies of U.S. time series and to analyses of household cross sections in the U.S.     

Optimal growth with many consumers

A method is described for constructing all Pareto-optimal allocations for a dynamic economy with many heterogeneous consumers, under certainty, in which both the technology and consumer preferences are recursive but preferences need not be additively separable over time. Optimal (perfect foresight competitive equilibrium) allocations are obtained through the study of a dynamic program. For an economy with one consumption good, sufficient conditions are given for the existence of a unique interior stationary distribution of consumption and wealth. For a two-person exchange economy, sufficient conditions are given for the global asymptotic stability of the unique interior stationary point.     

An empirical examination of the role of vertical product differentiation in north-south trade

Conclusions Our results indicate that the general line of reasoning embodied in the recently developed models of North-South IIT would seem to be valid. The various measures of income and size similarity do seem to affect North-South IIT in the theoretically predicted way. Further, this type of trade is positively impacted by the direction of quality differences and, to a lesser degree, the extent of quality differences. Finally, it would appear that modeling this type of trade on a bilateral basis using data detailed by both industry and country has not only theoretial appeal, but is empirically useful. The results, however, do not address the mechanism which generates these quality differences between the exports of the North and South. The theoretical models use different assumptions concerning the process which generates the quality differences. Such differences may be related to capital abundance as in Falvey [1981]; a Ricardian form of comparative advantage as in Flam and Helpman [1987]; or a complex combination of the two.¹⁵ Some preliminary evidence on the role of quality differences has been given in this paper. The difficult task of explaining what generates these differences is an important issue left unaddressed at this point.