Lessons of the crisis for emerging markets

This paper analyzes the impact of the global financial crisis on emerging markets. It argues that the crisis will have enduring implications for policy toward the development and liberalization of financial markets. In particular, emerging markets will rely (even) less on external finance and adopt a less permissive approach to foreign bank presence. In contrast, the crisis will have a much more limited impact on other aspects of globalization. More controversially, the paper argues that the crisis is unlikely to have a major impact on the structure of the international monetary system.     

Do Institutions Matter for Foreign Direct Investment?

Using a panel of 69 countries during 1981 and 2005, we investigate the role of institutions in determining foreign direct investment (FDI). We find that institutions are a robust predictor of FDI and that the most significant institutional aspects are linked to propriety rights. Using a novel data set, we also study the impact of institutions on FDI at the sectoral level. We find that institutions do not have a significant impact on FDI in the primary sector but that institutional quality matters for FDI in manufacturing, and particularly in services.     

Macro Prudential Supervision in the Open Economy,and the Role of Central Banks in Emerging Markets

In this paper we explore lessons from the global liquidity crisis pertaining to the prudential supervision role of central bank in an open economy. The crisis validates the need for external debt management policy in emerging markets. Hoarding international reserves (IR) is a potent self-insurance mechanism. However, it is associated with relatively high costs and is also less efficient in absence of assertive external debt management policies. In the presence of congestion externalities associated with deleveraging, optimal external borrowing-tax-cum-IR-hoarding-subsidy reduces the cost as well as the scale of hoarding IR.     

How to Measure Globalization? A New Globalization Index (NGI)

This paper presents the New Globalization Index (NGI). It is a composite index constructed to measure the relative globalization level of a group of countries. With its 21 variables, it accounts for the multidimensionality of this phenomenon instead of relying purely on economic indicators. As compared to other existing globalization indices, three major innovations are introduced in the NGI. Firstly, five variables that have until now not been used in globalization indices enter the calculations, introducing some new and important aspects to the measure, such as international student mobility and environmental issues. Secondly, the NGI forms a weighted sum of bilateral trade flows using the geographical distances between trading partners as weights. This modifies the usual trade openness measure by placing more weight on distant trading partners. In effect, intra-regional trade is given a lower weight in the NGI. One of the effects of this procedure is a significant downward movement in the ranking of some EU countries, whose international openness comes primarily from trade within their region and reflects regional integration more than globalization. A final innovation in the NGI is the use of a statistical method (principal component analysis) to form subcomponents of globalization according to the statistical features of the variable structure. The goal of this step is the analysis of the multidimensionality of globalization. Three dimensions emerge by the use of this technique: finance, trade and politics, and social globalization. Principal component analysis is also employed for producing weights for individual indicators within the overall index. Additionally, a control for country size is employed for some of the variables, as has been done in some other globalization indices before. The final index contains 70 countries and covers a period between 1995 and 2005.     

Estimating the Equilibrium Effective Exchange Rate for Potential EMU Members

In this study, we attempt to examine the possibility of emergence of significant fluctuations of the exchange rates in the future for the candidate EMU countries. In doing so, we estimate the equilibrium rate of the nominal effective exchange rate for Poland, Hungary, Slovak Republic and Malta through the BEER and PEER approaches. While the PEER-based estimation implies a large misalignment rate for the Hungarian forint, the BEER-based analysis shows that the present exchange rates of the countries considered do not deviate significantly from their equilibrium rates. As a consequence, based on BEER analysis, we do not expect large fluctuations in the effective exchange rates among the currencies considered. Hence, the relevant effective exchange rates are expected to be relatively stable. As a matter of fact, the entry of those countries into EMU is not expected to weaken the stability of Euro.

Labour Market Adjustments to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Evidence from Canadian Manufacturing Industries

This paper provides some of the first empirical evidence on labour market adjustments to exchange rate movements in Canadian manufacturing industries. Controlling for endogeneity using generalized method of moments estimation, it is found that during the 1981–1997 period, exchange movements have a substantial impact on labour input and that this impact has grown over time as the manufacturing industries have become more exposed to trade. In contrast, the exchange rate effect on real wages is estimated to be virtually zero for all manufacturing industries.

Monetary Policy in Austria–Hungary, 1876–1913: An Econometric Analysis of the Determinants of the Central Bank’s Discount Rate and the Liquidity Ratio

This paper presents a model to explain the official discount rate of the Central Bank of Austria–Hungary from 1876 to 1913. The discount rate is assumed to depend on the liquidity ratio of the Bank, defined as the ratio of its stock of metals to banknotes issued, and on changes in foreign discount rates. The paper also presents an equation explaining the liquidity ratio. We use “not equally spaced chronologically ordered data” referring to the 50 discount rate changes enacted. The regressions confirm that the liquidity ratio was the main determinant of the discount rate and that Germany (and not Great Britain) played a significant role in determining the Austro–Hungarian discount rate and the liquidity ratios, supporting the view that the classical gold standard was a decentralized multipolar system rather than a system fully dominated by London as suggested by Keynes. The regressions also suggest that, although Austria–Hungary had an inconvertible paper currency (1879–1892) and fluctuating exchange rates (1876–1895) and formally joined the gold standard only in 1902, it “shadowed” the behaviour of gold standard Central Banks with such consistency that the stability of the estimated regressions was relatively unaffected by the frequent institutional changes.

The Costs of Increasing Transparency

In their seminal paper, Morris and Shin (Amer Econ Rev 92(5): 1521–1534, 2002a) argued that increasing the precision of public information is not always beneficial to social welfare. Svensson (Amer Econ Rev 96: 448–451, 2006) however has disputed this by saying that although feasible, the conditions for which this was true, were not all that likely. In that respect, therefore, increasing ‘transparency’ remains most of the times beneficial to social welfare. In this paper, we extend the Morris and Shin attempt by setting it up as an explicit interactive game between the Central Bank, the objectives of which we model explicitly, and the private sector. We show that in the absence of costs, both players benefit from transparency in the manner described previously in the literature, and point the differences in their gains. Following that, we then introduce the fact that increasing transparency comes at some costs and show how both players face incentives to free ride on each other as a result. The presence of costs thus alters the way in which greater transparency is attained.

Dissipation of Knowledge and the Boundaries of the Multinational Enterprise

This paper provides a theoretical formalization of the joint-venture contract, as an alternative to foreign direct investment (FDI), within a Dissipation of Intangible Assets (DIA) framework. In a two-period model, we discuss how the threat of knowledge spillover shapes the boundaries of a multinational enterprise (MNE). Similarly to the theoretical findings on the FDI-licensing trade-off, we show that the integrated solution is more likely to emerge when know-how easily spills over—i.e., when firms are endowed with more intangible assets or they belong to high-tech industries. Probit estimates, from a new firm-level data set, show that Japanese manufacturing operations in Europe are in line with these predictions. JEL no. F23, C25, O5